演講者： 95156151 95156152 指導老師：林娟娟教授

1. Evaluating the supply chain performance of IT-basedinter-enterprise collaborationMu-Chen, Taho Yang, Hsin- Chia Li 演講者：95156151 95156152 指導老師：林娟娟教授

2. outline Abstract Introduction Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment Model development Simulation results and discussions Conclusions

3. 原因 經營型態的改變 CPFR在深度合作中已成為供應鏈中重要的部份 方式 模擬系統 CPFR的五種方案 結果 供應鏈中的零售商可由buyer-driven改為supplier-driven

4. 新興策略： Quick Response (QR) Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) Mentzer-supply chain collaborative 之效能 Simatupang and Sridharan–collaborativeperformance

5. IT的效用 提供更短的lead time 更少的batch size 資訊交流的其他因素 Organizational culture the effect of trust Teamwork reward systems

6. CPFR有提供合作程序的指導手冊 其同時內容包含： 合作程序的細節 合作夥伴的複雜程度 依然不被廣大採用以及研究的原因： 缺乏足夠的資訊

7. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(Basics of CPFR) • VICS(美國產業共用標準) 定義CPFR – a collection of new business practices • 和舊有的結盟策略相較： • 強力的商業連結計畫 • 預測 • 補充 • 食品雜貨： • 較短的商品週期 • 海外生產

8. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(CPFR process) • CPFR的三大步驟： planning, forecasting, and replenishment • The details • Capability of partners - 夥伴能力 • The role of the supply chain –供應鏈中的角色 • The information source – 資訊來源 • Consensus between partners – 夥伴的共識

9. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(CPFR process) • Model can be divided into four scenarios

10. The three stages are further divided into nine steps • Create order forecast • Identify exceptions for order forecast • Resolve/collaborate on exception items for order forecast • Generate order • Develop collaboration arrangement • Create joint business plan • Create sales forecast • Identify exceptions for sales forecast • Resolve/collaborate on exception items for sales forecast

11. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation) • CPFR has some typical benefits such as: • Increased profitability – 增加收益 • Reduced inventory – 減少存貨 • Shortage cycle time – 較短的週期 • More efficient transportation planning – 有效的運送 • Decrease of shortages – 減少短缺 • Better promotion planning – 更好地提升計畫 • Improved customer service – 改進顧客服務

12. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation) • 三個促成要素： • Information sharing – 資訊分享 • Decision synchronization – 決策的同步 • Incentive alignment – 誘因整合 • 由 Simatupang and Sridharan 證實

13. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation) • The main inhibitors • Lack of visibility – 可見性 • Lack of trust – 信任 • Lack of collaborative – 合作 • Improved collaboration • Stabilizing objectives • Broadening the complexity and scope with mutual trust • Information sharing

14. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation) • McCarthy and Golicic 所提出以CPFR為基礎改進S.C.的方法： • Internal forecasting process auditing – 預測內部查帳 • Top management support – 提高管理層的支援 • Collaborative forecasting training – 加強合作的預測 • Initially targeting key companies – 定立開始的目標 • Creating a single demand projection – 單一需求預測

15. Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment(inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation) Holmstrom etal :預測是供應者的重點行動 零售業的管理程序：預測的基礎 POS系統：提供連接，加強預測

16. Model development • 定義model有五種方案 • A non-collaboration model and CPFR scenarios A-D • ARENA is a powerful discrete-event commercial software simulator • Supply chain structure：為一二階層的 model

17. Model development • VICS所說的CPFR的基本步驟

18. Model development • Retailer: 面對不同customer的demand rate • 其收入與訂購有一個公認的存貨政策 • Manufacturer: 接收retailer 的訂單後開始動作 • 依供應者所提供的原料，製造公司有了收益及產品計劃；原物料可為無限的產能

19. Model development • 二階層model中S.C的參數: • Customer demand rate – 顧客需求等級 • Lead time – 生產週期 • Inventory policy - 存貨規則 • (s,S) inventory policy • Exception criteria – 例外原則 • Sales forecast exception • Order forecast exception

20. Model development • The following in formation may be shared between partners • Promotion information – 促銷計畫 • Sales information – 銷售資訊 • Inventory information – 存貨資訊 • Capacity information – 生產能力

21. Model development • The lead sides for sales forecast, order forecast, and order generation—Table1

22. Model development • The information sharing settings of the five scenarios—Table2

23. Model development • 各效能所表示的意思： • Average service level • Average fulfillment rate • Average order cycle time • Total system cost • Inventory holding cost • Shortage cost • Order cost

24. Simulation results and discussion

25. Simulation results and discussion • Performance of non-collaboration scenario • Retailer’s sales ,order forecasts are based on its own data. • Generate large increase in shortage costs& order cycle time. • Decrease fulfillment rate for both retailer & manufacturer.

26. Performance of non-collaboration scenario

27. Simulation results and discussion • Performance of CPFR scenario A • shared: promotion ,sales information • retailer lead-->sales forecast, order forecast, order generation • Without sharing product capacity, the stock-out and order time in the manufacturer side increase to a high level.

28. Performance of CPFR scenario A

29. Simulation results and discussion • Performance of CPFR scenario B • shared: promotion, sales, inventory, capacity • retailer lead --> sales forecast • manufacturer lead --> order forecast & order generation • Manufacturer can increase the replenishment to the retailer. • outsourcing

30. Performance of CPFR scenario B

31. Simulation results and discussion • Performance of CPFR scenario C • shared: promotion,inventory information • Similar to scenario A, but order cycle time and shortage cost is better than A. • Manufacturer can replenishment to the retailer while production capacity limitation is met.

32. Performance of CPFR scenario C

33. Simulation results and discussion • Performance of CPFR scenario D • shared: inventory, capacity information • manufacturer lead all. ( sales forecast, order forecasts, order generation) • Without sharing promotion calendar, the reduce of service level and fulfillment rate for retailer due to manufacturer’s lowered replenishment.

34. Performance of CPFR scenario D

35. Simulation results and discussion • Average system service level B>C>A>D>non • B >A,C--> capacity not shared • C>A--> manufacturer lead order generation in (C) • D --> no promotion calendar

36. Simulation results and discussion • Average system fulfillment rate B>C>A>D>non • D -->retailer was not shared promotion calendar with trading partner.

37. Simulation results and discussion • Average system cycle time non>A>C>D>B • A.C --> non-sharing of production capacity, and order fulfillment is restricted by capacity level. • D --> manufacturer made replenishment decision.

38. Simulation results and discussion • Total system cost non> D>A>C>B • C -->manufacturer made replenishment decision, which decreased shortage cost. • B -->shared the most information.

40. Fiala&Sahin:供應鏈間提供越多資訊，其產生的合作效能也會越高Fiala&Sahin:供應鏈間提供越多資訊，其產生的合作效能也會越高 • Holmstrom:大量合作關係對夥伴間是有好處的 • Holmstrom:供應鏈中的合作關係是依賴在內部及外部事務的整合 • Soliman:會受到其它變因也會影響，貿易夥伴的壓力﹑競爭者的壓力﹑夥伴間的信任﹑會影響是否是使內部企業系統的意念。 • Fliedner:ERP系統可以連接跨企業的夥伴

41. Simulation results and discussion • In practice, supply chain collaboration usually starts with uncomplicated scenario due tolow mutual trust. • Large retailer such as ”Wal-Mart”, are able to make planning, forecasting and replenishment decisions. • Company in Taiwan A->B,C,D

42. Simulation results and discussion • Further results • Perturbed some parameters: (table10) Customer demand rate ↑ Lead time from supplier to manufacturer ↑ Production capacity↑ • Result: (table11) Total system cost ↑ due to customer demand CPFR-B is still better scenario.

43. Simulation results and discussion • Further results • Perturbed some parameters: (table12) Unit holding ↑ Shortage costs ↓ • Results: (table13) Cost parameters may impact on the total system cost. CPFR-B&D are better scenarios.

44. Conclusions • CPFR integrate internal and external business activities. • Mutual trust plays an essential role. • Knowledge sharing, technology sharing, risk sharing, revenue sharing

45. Conclusions • Limitation We Analyzed based on simulation, not on surveys provided by enterprises.

46. ~THE END~