The Twin Cities’ Changing Labor Market

1. The Twin Cities’ Changing Labor Market Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit • Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) • Labor Market Information Office • www.mnwfc.org/lmi Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

2. Where can we (or employers) find this information? www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

3. About DEED’s Regional Analysts • Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new research • Extend access to DEED reports and statistics • Conduct presentations and training onregional economy & labor market • Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions” • Five regional analystsstationed across the state Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

4. Where have we been? • Employment in the Twin Cities is up 37,000 jobs over the last 6 years- a 2.1 percent increase. • The unemployment rate is at 3.3%. 61,000 unemployed but that doesn’t count “discouraged” workers or the underemployed • Monthly unemployment insurance claims are down considerably from the recession • Why are we still talking about an event from 5 years ago? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

5. Where are we at right now? • Unemployment and UI claims are trending downward. • Renewed growth in personnel supply services • Overall job growth showing faster growth. • Corporations showing profits- a necessary precondition for job growth. • An end to loose labor markets? If so, what will the coming labor market look like? Structural shifts will change the face of employment… Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

6. Where have we been recently? • The Twin Cities has gained 37,000 jobs since August 2000 (an increase of 2.1%) • Manufacturing: -33,500 • Fabricated Metals: -6,000 • Machinery Mfg.: -9,300 • Computer/Electronics: -6,200 • Transportation: -7,100 • Information: -11,800 • Prof. & Technical Services: -3,000 • Mgmt. of Companies: -2,200 • Employment Agencies: -7,100 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

7. Some industries have been hiring over the last 6 years • Healthcare: +23,800 • Leisure and Hospitality: +26,100 • Social Assistance: +10,700 • Construction: +11,400 • Credit Intermediation: +10,200 • Real Estate: +3,700 • Medical Supplies Mfg: +3,600 • Medical Devices Etc.: +2,300 • Legal Services: +2,200 • Education: +5,700 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

8. Employment Change since 1991: MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

9. The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey: Numbers and job titles of current openings How long have positions been open? Required education & experience? Starting wage offers? Labor markets tighten and loosen: but its not the same for all industries www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/jobvacancy/ Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

10. 37,300 job openings in the job market during 2nd Q 2006 2.4% job vacancy rate Hiring demand is highest in some high-skill occupations: Architecture and engineering Healthcare support Management Healthcare practitioners and technical Computer and mathematical Business and financial Job Vacancy Survey Findings: Twin Cities Beginnings of a skills shortage? Too early to tell! Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

11. Vacancies are down but the “nature” of vacancies has changed as well. Source: DEED, Labor Market Information Office, Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey, 4Q 2005. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

12. Occupations gaining the most openings (2003-06) Computer-related +345% Sciences: +132% Management: +121% Engineering: +85% Education: +74% Office/Admin: +58% Food Preparation: +58% Transportation: +58% Business & Fin. Ops: +57% Occupations gaining (losing) the least openings (2003-06) Sales: +31% Production: +29% Building Maint.: +26% Healthcare Practitioners: +23% Personal Svcs. +8% Installation & Repair: -2% Healthcare Support: -14% Construction: -23% Comm./Social Svcs. -23% Are we heading for skill shortages? (too early to tell) 48% of total Job Vacancies require more than a high school diploma Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

13. Registered Nurses Install., maintenance, repair LPNs Business Operations Software Engineers Management Analysts IT Managers Managers, all other Med. Lab. Technicians Home Health Aides Laborers/Material Movers Nurses Aides & Orderlies Customers Service Reps. Truck Drivers Receptionists/Info. Clerks Security Guards Occupations with the most vacancies Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

14. Project industry trends for state and regions Next, overlay industry growth with state staffing matrix Result: Occupational projections www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections Future Prospect: Which industries and occupations are projected to grow in coming years? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

15. Projections • Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally). • Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict: • Recessions, depressions, energy crises... • Wars • Natural Disasters • Technology change • Legislation Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

16. MN Industry Projections: 2004-2014 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

17. MN Industry Projections (2004-2014)Employment Loss Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

18. MN Occupational Projections: 2004-14 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

19. Replacement will drive openings in Production Related Occupations: Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

20. Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

21. The aging population will drive healthcare growth between 2004-2014 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

22. Some occupations will lose employment, 2004-2014 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

23. Employment and Innovation Employment Commoditization Maturation or “the Golden Age” Microchips? Computer Mfg? Correction Expansion/ Speculation? IT Services? Inception Nanotech? Biotech? Time Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

24. Projected Percent Employment Growth by Educational and Training Requirement: Minnesota 2002-2012 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

25. Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Reading Comprehension Active Listening Speaking Writing Active Learning Coordination Monitoring Instructing Critical Thinking Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Customer Service Mathematics Clerical Education/Training English Sales/marketing Psychology Computers/electronics Administration & Mgmt. Workforce shortages or skills shortages (2002-2012) Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

26. Demographics: Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

27. Projected Population Distribution: Twin Cities, 2000-2030 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

28. Labor Force growth slows dramatically after 2015 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

29. While renewed economic growth will tighten the labor market, demographics play an even bigger role. How long will they stay In the labor force? How productive can they be? Will there be enough? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

30. Labor Force Participation, 2000 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

31. Labor Availability • Overall participation rates have not grown with expanding employment. Some of the decrease in Unemployment rate has to do with job seekers dropping out of the labor market. • Participation rates for youth and women have been in decline- are the same factors at work? • Lack of opportunity may be at work for youth • Some of the downturn for women may have to do with demographics • A larger issue may be education- more people are going to school, especially women. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

32. % Population Change 1990 to 2000 Source: 1990 & 2000 Census Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

33. Percent of Population Age 45+ Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

34. Female Labor Force Participation Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

35. Female Labor Force Participation, 2000 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

36. Percent of Total Occupational Positions filled by Women : U.S. BLS: Women at Work: A Visual Essay Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

37. Will workplace conditions change with skills shortages? • The percent of women in professional business positions has doubled between 1972 allowing employers to tap into a new pool of talent. However,… • 37% of women in professional positions take time off of work voluntarily (24% for men). • Of those who take off, 93% would like to return to work but experience major reductions in salary. • 74% come back to work but 0% report that they would prefer to return to their former place of work* * “Off Ramps and On-ramps, Keeping Talented women on the road to success” Harvard Business Review, March 2005 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

38. What Factors could Impact a Skills or Workforce Shortage? • Economic growth attracts the necessary inmigrants from beyond MN. • Outsourcing/Offshoring: Some jobs leave the state due to lower wages or simple labor availability • Technology: Jobs go away everywhere but the ones that remain require high skills. Is this as scary as outsourcing? • Retirement on hold: Pension funds become so depleted that people hold off retirement. • What else? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

39. Employer Solutions • Increase Hours- Get more work from fewer workers. • Capital Deepening: Substitute technology for labor. • Seek new workers from previously underutilized labor pools • Immigrants • The Disabled • Retirees • The Underemployed Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

40. Future Prospects for Local Employers • Increasing labor shortage as the economy emerges from the shadow of recession. • Wage pressure for skilled workers. • Increasing use of technology to increase productivity. • Greater use of customized training- particularly important for small employers. • Increased diversity in the workplace • Communication Issues • Assistive technology and flexible hours etc. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

41. Occupational Wages & Employment • Occupational Employment & Wage Stats (OES) are based on rolling survey of 22,000 employers • Updated quarterly and annually for state, regions, and MSAs • Third Quarter 2005 • Distribution stats for 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles • Minnesota Salary Tool • www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/ Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office

42. Where can I get this Information? • DEED Website: www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi • DEED Publications Hotline: 651-296-6545 • DEED Twin Cities Regional Analyst: Rachel Hillman • 651-296-5347 • Regional Analysis Unit Manager: Kyle Uphoff • 651-296-8713 • DEED LMI Help Line: 651-282-2714 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Labor Market Information Office