Integrated Economic Models for California's MPOs

1. The Path to Integrated Modelsin California NYMTC May 1, 2008 Mike McCoy Information Center for the Environment U.C. Davis http://ice.ucdavis.edu

2. 2005 Review California MPO Practice and Needs

4. Criteria

5. Recommendations • The four large MPOs (SCAG, MTC/ABAG, SANDAG, and SACOG) strongly consider implementing an integrated economic model in the near future. • Medium-sized MPOs and RTPAs in California consider implementing simpler urban models, such as PLACES, What If?, UPlan, and others. • Data sharing should be instituted among MPOs, RTPAs, and Caltrans (much like NYMTC Strategic Data Coordination Effort). • Caltrans should consider implementing a statewide integrated interregional urban model.

6. NYMTC ABAG/ MTC ABAG/ MTC ABAG/ MTC

7. Results/Status • SACOG calibrating PECAS, SANDAG developing PECAS, SCAG at RFP stage for integrated economic model, ABAG assembling data for integrated economic model • 18 Medium-sized MPO/RTPAs have installed and are using UPlan integrated with their travel models. • Data sharing begun between SCAG, SANDAG, ABAG and SACOG. Center for data management being given funding consideration by State • First phase of statewide demonstration interregional PECAS model finished in June 2008. Second phase demonstration PECAS model complete June 2009. First production PECAS model expected in June 2010

8. Land Use Affects Travel Demand& Travel Facilities Affect Land Use and They All Affect the Economy Why Did These Users Adopt?

9. Moreover • 1. These models allow us to test a wide variety of policy, planning and investment alternatives • 2. They create a consistent set of economic rules and criteria to test the alternatives. • 3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes requiring more accurate forecasts than in the past.

10. Most Importantly It’s About the 3 E’s • Economic benefits for the state and its counties • Equity: benefits for households by income • Environmental • Air quality and GHG production • Conversion of habitats and ag lands

11. How Do The Models Do This?The SACOG Case

12. Goods, Services, Labor and Space $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Producing Sectors $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Economic Flows $ $ $ $ $ $ Consuming Sectors $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

13. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption total consumption buying allocation process exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process total production total production total production

14. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption 1: allocating production activity to zones production allocation allocating production to commodities allocating consumption to commodities 2: technology selection 3: allocating produced commodities to selling locations selling allocations buying allocations allocating consumed commodities to buying locations 3-level nested logit model

15. Introduction: PECAS Zones Production Location Consumption Location exchange zone Consumption Location

16. Introduction: Hypothetical Proposed Road

17. Without Road 2050 : Commercial Floorspace per Zone % Increase

18. With Road 2050 : Commercial Floorspace per Zone % Increase

19. Now how will this help conform to statute? • SAFETEA-LU 4 objectives • Increase mobility and economic development • Decrease pollution and Green House Gasses • Context sensitive planning • Scenario Planning

20. How will this help conform to statute? • Clean Air Act • GHG Measures • Clean Water Act • Runoff • Civil Rights Act • Environmental Justice • Executive Order 12898 • FESA • Conversion of habitat for listed species

21. What Did It Cost Them: Staff • Forecast Program Manager • Transportation Modeler • Land-Use Modeler • Regional Economist • Socio-Economic (Demographic) Modeler • Programmer (Advanced)

22. What Did It Cost Them: Data • Transport • Transport costs for goods and services • Off-peak auto times and cost skims from travel model • Value of time and commuting cost for labour • Land Use • Land cover data with existing use, zoning, vacant/protectedintensity of development • Floorspace • Real estate prices by TAZ • Typical floorspace use rates by household type and housing type from PUMS

23. What Did It Cost Them: Data • Typical floorspace use rates by employment type • Relative quantity of housing by zone from Census SF3Crosstab of space type by household type • Relative quantity of housing by zone from Census SF3Crosstab of space type by household type • Construction cost data • Employment • Employment by occupation and household category • Occupation by industry crosstab from PUMS ES202 or InfoUSA data on employment location • Census • Census household distributions by TAZ

24. What Did It Cost Them: Time • Time • Build • 2 Year minimum process • 3 Years easier on everybody • Run • About 30 hours per scenario

25. What Are They Doing Next • SACOG will finish calibration and study investment and policy • SANDAG will use their model to figure out how to direct development to the nodes they recognized in their Regional Comprehensive Plan • The Statewide model will be used by the Governor’s Office for interagency infrastructure investment decisions

26. Wide Range of Modeling Papers, Information and the UPlan User Manualwww.ice.ucdavis.edu/ummcmccoy@ucdavis.edu