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Two Key Questions. Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a strategy to further their political agendas? Who joins terrorist organizations and why?. Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism?. Strategic or Instrumental Model Realist Model The Democracy Factor

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two key questions
Two Key Questions
  • Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a strategy to further their political agendas?
  • Who joins terrorist organizations and why?
why do organizations choose terrorism
Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism?
  • Strategic or Instrumental Model
  • Realist Model
  • The Democracy Factor
  • Ethno-nationalism
  • Expectations-Frustration-Aggression
  • Resource Mobilization Theory
2 realist model
2. Realist Model
  • Power matters
  • The powerful ignore the weak
  • Demonstrating your power makes you a player
demonstrating your power
Demonstrating your power

For a nation-state

For a non-state actor

Sept. 11, 2001

  • North Korea ballistic missile test 2009
3 democracy as a factor
3. Democracy as a factor?
  • As target
  • Nationality of Terrorists
  • Negotiations?

Gerry Adams, MP Velupillai Prabhakaran

of Sinn Fein of the LTTE

4 ethno nationalism
Palestine Flag

Independent Tamil state?

4. Ethno-nationalism
5 expectations frustration aggression
5. Expectations-Frustration-Aggression
  • Davies J-Curve

Q

U Expectations

A

L

I Expectation Gap

T

Y

O reality

F

L

I

F TIME

E

6 resource mobilization theory
Arafat with Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, 1978

Hizbullah Chief Hassan Nasrullah with Iranian Pres. Ahmadenijad

6. Resource Mobilization Theory
who becomes a terrorist and why
Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why
  • Leaders vs. members
  • Full Time vs. Part Time

OBL OBL Driver Salim Hamdan

$200/month

1 poverty and lack of education
1. Poverty and lack of Education?

World’s Poorest Nations

  • Burundi ... $90
  • Ethiopia ... $110
  • Democratic Republic of Congo ... $110
  • Liberia ... $110
  • Malawi ... $160
  • Guinea-Bissau ... $160
  • Eritrea ... $190
  • Niger ... $210
  • Sierra Leone ... $210
  • Rwanda ... $210From: World Bank data http://internationaltrade.suite101.com/article.cfm/world_s_poorest_countries#ixzz0PxjgeGro
education
Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri

al-Jihad, al-Qaeda

Prof. Abimael Guzman, Shining Path

Education?
2 demographic profile
2. Demographic Profile?
  • Age: 20-29
  • Unmarried, except Salafists
  • Drop outs
  • Urban vs. Rural terrorists
  • Left vs. Right
  • Male vs. female
3 ideology
3. Ideology

Left Right Religious

Ulrike Meinhof, Timothy Ramzi Yousef,

RAF McVeigh WTC, 1993

4 economic factors
4. Economic Factors
  • Unemployment and Underemployment?
  • From: WTRG Economics, Oil Price History and Analysis, http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
5 transitions
5. Transitions
  • From Council on Foreign Relations, http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/04/28/120-oil-and-the-rise-of-the-gulf/
transitions
Transitions
  • Signing of Civil Rights Act, July 2, 1964
6 alienation humiliation identity
6. Alienation, Humiliation, Identity
  • Aum Shinrikyo’s Asahara Shoko and followers
slide23
8. Prison, Torture, Revenge

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Ahmed al-Khalayleh), imprisoned in Jordan 1992-1997

AQ in Iraq, leader until 2006

9. Money

FARC-controlled areas