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PINE CHEMICALS New Normal

PINE CHEMICALS New Normal. Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com areldorado.com.ar Workshop on the Pine Industry , Rescoll 30 October 2012 Bordeaux, France. “ The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the

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PINE CHEMICALS New Normal

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  1. PINE CHEMICALS New Normal Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com areldorado.com.ar Workshop onthePineIndustry, Rescoll 30 October 2012 Bordeaux, France
  2. “ The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present. ” Paul SaffoSixRules for AccurateEffectiveForecastingHarvard Business Review,July-August 2007, 122-131
  3. PINE FOREST (natural orplanted) Timber PineTapping Chips CRUDE GUM (CG) (PineoleoresinorPineresin) Kraft Process Paper RosinPlant Black Liquor GUM TURPENTINE (GT) GUM ROSIN (GR) (CGR, IGR, BGR) SULFATE TURPENTINE (CST) Pine Chemicals Industry TALL OIL ROSIN (TORA) Industry Industry Industry TURPENTINE DERIVATIVES POLITERPENIC RESINS (PTR) ROSIN RESINS (RR) Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com 30 OCTOBER 2012
  4. TACKIFIER RESINS Pine Forest Petroleum Kraft Process Tapping Petrochemistry “Pine Chemicals” Pineresin Black Liquor Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com 30 OCTOBER 2012 Industry Industry Sulfate Turpentine TallOilRosin Turpentine Rosin Pygas (C5, C9, DCPD) Industry Industry Industry Polyterpenic Resins Rosin Resins Hydrocarbon Resins C5 or C9
  5. Volumes and Prices China the #1! 2012 into a “New Normal” Field open for new(old) players
  6. Volumes and Prices China the #1! 2012 into a “New Normal” Field open for new(old) players
  7. TACKIFIER RESINS – GLOBAL VOLUMES IN KTON (2011) Source: AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) Baumassy (2012). Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com 30 OCTOBER 2012
  8. GUM ROSIN – GLOBAL PRODUCTION [TM/YEAR] - 36 % ?! Surces: SongLifeng (2009) & (2012) Rosineb (2009) AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) Baumassy (2012). Alex CUNNINGHAM alexcunn@gmail.com 30 OCTOBER 2012
  9. GUM ROSIN – CHINESE PRODUCTION [TM/YEAR] Current Production Record ! [1.000 TM/YEAR] Sources: AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) SongLifeng, Nanjing (Novembro 2009). ZhaoMingui (2011). ROSINNET (2010).
  10. Volumes and Prices Historic price peak China the #1; Brazil and Indonesia #2; plus many many others…
  11. Volumes and Prices China the #1! 2012 into a “New Normal” Field open for new(old) players
  12. Wuhile Stadium Shenyang, LN, China Build in: 1998 Blown in: 2007 9 years! Olimpic Stadium Shenyang, LN, China Build in: 2003 Blown in: 2012 9 years!
  13. PREÇOS DO BREU vs. COMMODITTIES
  14. GUM ROSIN – CHINESE PRODUCTION MAP LN SA HB AH SC ZJ HU JX GZ FJ YN GD GX HN
  15. EVOLUÇÃO SALARIAL - CHINA 6,3 RMB = 1 USD 3,2 RMB = 1 R$
  16. CHINA – PINE TAPPER 1 WORKER 1500 TREES 2 KG PER TREE/YEAR PINE TREE “RENT” 6 RMB / TREE YEAR = (9.000) “ADMINISTRATION” COST 500 RMB / MT PINE RESIN * 3 TON = (1.500) SALE OF PINE RESIN TO ROSIN PLANT 3 ton * 8.300 RMB / MT = 24.900 =========== NET 14.400 RMB / 25 DAYS * 6 MONTH = 96 RMB/DAY
  17. CHINA – PINE TAPPER 1 WORKER 1500 TREES 2 KG PER TREE/YEAR PINE TREE “RENT” 6 RMB / TREE YEAR = (9.000) “ADMINISTRATION” COST 500 RMB / MT PINE RESIN * 3 TON = (1.500) SALE OF PINE RESIN TO ROSIN PLANT 3 ton * 8.300 RMB / MT = 24.900 =========== NET 14.400 RMB / 25 DAYS * 6 MONTH = 96 RMB/DAY CURRENT PINE RESIN PRICE IN CHINA
  18. CHINA – SALARY EVOLUTION QUINQUENAL PLAN 2011/2016 + 15% PER YEAR! 2016  2570 RMB/month
  19. China the #1 = The “Perfect Storm” Speculation Limited forest resources Hand labor scarcity
  20. Volumes and Prices China the #1! 2012 into a “New Normal” Field open for new(old) players
  21. 2012 into a “New Normal” Example: Brazil vs. China export market
  22. Volumes and Prices China the #1! 2012 into a “New Normal” Field open for new(old) players
  23. Field open for new (old) players Demand for “Pine Chemicals” Sustainable supply Competitive price Modern tapping technique
  24. Thank you!
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