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International trends and employment in Australia: key findings Phil McKenzie & Gerald Burke CEET National Conference PowerPoint Presentation
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International trends and employment in Australia: key findings Phil McKenzie & Gerald Burke CEET National Conference 28 October 2005 Ascot House Melbourne. Key issues. Trends in the international economy and employment Economic development, especially in China

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International trends and employment in Australia: key findings

Phil McKenzie & Gerald Burke

CEET National Conference 28 October 2005

Ascot House Melbourne

CEET

key issues
Key issues
  • Trends in the international economy and employment
      • Economic development, especially in China
      • Rapid growth in international trade & investment
      • International trade is relatively small in the Australian economy
      • The more open countries have grown more quickly
      • But, high adjustment costs for trade-displaced workers
      • Trade only one of the drivers of employment change
  • Trends in the Australian economy
      • Recent industrial trends
      • Related changes in employment by occupations by skill level
      • Growth of the workforce– effects of ageing and immigration
      • Education and training provision

CEET

impact of china
Impact of China
  • Produces 15% of world output
  • Accounts for 7% of world trade
  • Contributed 40% of increase in world output in 2004
  • Largest recipient of foreign direct investment
  • Australia’s 2nd-largest trading partner (Australia is China’s 12th largest trading partner)

Source: Australia China Business Council (2005)

CEET

growth and benefits of world trade
Growth and benefits of world trade
  • World trade increased 16-fold 1950-2000
  • In OECD countries trade flows relative to GDP (“trade openness”) doubled from 1970-2000
  • 1% increase in trade openness associated with increase of per capita income of 0.5% to 2%
  • Countries that were more open to international trade and investment grew at twice the rate of less open countries during the 1990s

Source: OECD (2005) Employment Outlook

CEET

australia is a relatively low trade country
Australia is a relatively low trade country
  • Trade flows (exports + imports) relative to GDP grew from about 20% in 1970-74 to 45% in 2000-2004 in Australia
  • But, Australia was the 3rd-lowest of 30 OECD countries on this indicator in 2000-2004: country median was about 80%
  • The countries with the highest trade flows tend to be relatively small, close to wealthy markets, and with few trade barriers e.g. Ireland 200%
  • Japan and the USA had the lowest trade flows relative to GDP of all OECD countries in 2000-04
  • Source: OECD (2005) Employment Outlook

CEET

potential losers from greater trade
Potential losers from greater trade
  • Rising trade, especially with low-wage countries, is associated with greater income inequality in developed countries
  • Biggest losers -- poorly educated, older workers, especially in manufacturing
  • Trade-displaced workers experience longer unemployment, and lower earnings in subsequent jobs (earnings loss lower if they find work in the same industry)
  • Adverse impact most marked when trade liberalisation leads to specialisation (more likely in small countries)
  • International trade only one of the factors leading to employment changes: changes in technology and consumption patterns are generally more significant
  • Equity and efficiency arguments for assistance for trade-displaced workers

Source: OECD (2005) Employment Outlook

CEET

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Job growth 2005 to 2013 by occupation and qualification (about 1.1 million extra jobs)Australia ‘000MONASH COPS Forecast

CEET

job openings to new entrants 2005 to 2013 by occupation nearly 3 million australia 000
Job openings to new entrants 2005 to 2013 by occupation (nearly 3 million) Australia '000

CEET

employment versus labour supply
Employment versus labour supply
  • Projected employment growth 1.4% per annum next 10 years
  • Projected labour supply about 1.0% per annum –but will vary with changes in immigration and participation rates

CEET

education and training implications
Education and training implications
  • Jobs openings tending to more qualified
    • professionals
    • associate professional
    • trades – shortages as well as new openings
    • still large number of low skill jobs
  • Need to increase proportion of new workers with qualifications
  • Need to increase proportion of existing workers with qualifications
  • Need to increase qualifications of those underemployed or not employed including older persons to increase employability

CEET