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Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin

Outlook for Gasoline and Fuel Ethanol Through 2025. James Kendell Energy Information Administration james.kendell@eia.doe.gov. Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin. Average Prices of Gasoline and Ethanol at the Plant Gate (2002 dollars per gallon). Ethanol. CARB.

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Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin

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  1. Outlook for Gasoline and Fuel Ethanol Through 2025 James Kendell Energy Information Administration james.kendell@eia.doe.gov Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin

  2. Average Prices of Gasoline and Ethanol at the Plant Gate(2002 dollars per gallon) Ethanol CARB RFG Conventional

  3. Miles Traveled and Miles Per Gallon for Light-Duty Vehicles(percent growth year-by-year) Miles Miles Per Gallon

  4. U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) History Projections Transportation Electricity generation Industrial Residential and commercial

  5. Consumption of Petroleum Products, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day)

  6. Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Fuel, 1990-2025 (million metric tons)

  7. U.S. Petroleum Consumption and Production, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) Low price Projections History Reference High price Consumption High price Reference Production Low price

  8. Used RFG with MTBE Never used RFG with MTBE States That Ban MTBE

  9. U.S. Oxygenate Consumption, 1993-2025 (million gallons) History Projections RFS Schedule Ethanol for Gasoline Blending MTBE Ethanol for E85

  10. Sales of Advanced Technology Light-duty Vehicles by Fuel Type, 2010 and 2025 (thousand vehicles sold)

  11. The Chemistry of Ethanol Production Amylase Enzyme Yeast Glucose Ethanol Corn Genetically Modified Yeast or Bacteria Cellulase Enzyme or Strong Acid 5- and 6- carbon sugars Cellulose Ethanol

  12. Corn and Cellulose Ethanol Production, 2010-2025(million gallons per year) Corn Cellulose

  13. Economic Hurdles to Cellulose Ethanol Commercialization • Iogen estimates that a commercial plant using its technology would cost $4.80 per annual gallon of capacity to build. (Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2004) • A dry-grind corn ethanol plant can be built for about $1 per annual gallon of capacity. • Banks are reluctant to back petroleum refinery projects that cost more than $1 per annual gallon of capacity. • Cellulose ethanol producers may eventually face competition from electric generators for supplies of crop residues and other cellulosic materials.

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