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Principles to Guide the Development of the 2010 HCM

2. HCM 2000 Principles. Originally developed by Stan TeplyApproved by Committee in 1995 to guide development of HCM 2000.Addressed issues important at that timeDefinition of LOSMOE's and performance measuresInclusion of travel time prediction methods. 3. HCM 2000 LOS Principles. LOS A to E incl

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Principles to Guide the Development of the 2010 HCM

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    1. 1 Principles to Guide the Development of the 2010 HCM Richard Dowling Draft for: January 20, 2007 Workshop

    2. 2 HCM 2000 Principles Originally developed by Stan Teply Approved by Committee in 1995 to guide development of HCM 2000. Addressed issues important at that time Definition of LOS MOE’s and performance measures Inclusion of travel time prediction methods

    3. 3 HCM 2000 LOS Principles LOS A to E included will be defined by a single measure of effectiveness (MOE) for each facility type. This single MOE will be related to the users’ perception of the quality of service. Los F shall be defined to occur when either the user perceived MOE exceeds some pre-defined threshold, or when demand exceeds capacity.

    4. 4 Draft Modifications for 2010 LOS A to E included will be defined by a single measures of effectiveness (MOE) for each facility type. This single The MOE’s will be related to the users’ perception of the quality of service. LOS F shall be defined to occur when either the user perceived MOE exceeds some pre-defined threshold, or when demand exceeds capacity, whichever occurs first.

    5. 5 MOE Principles (2000 & 2010) MOE's are those performance measures that lead to LOS determination. Ideally, these MOE's will have the following attributes: be perceivable by the facility user, be measurable or can be derived using measurable factors, can be well defined for HCM users, be sensitive to changes in traffic, roadway, and control conditions.

    6. 6 Performance Measures (2000 & 2010) In addition to MOE’s, each chapter should include performance measures that link to environmental, economic, safety analyses, and demand forecasting. Analysis period will be an input parameter. One of the performance measures shall be a time-dimension related measure, such as travel time, speed, or delay.

    7. 7 Treatment of Demand (2000 & 2010) The committee recognizes that the quality of operation at a facility influences demand. Nevertheless, modeling of demand changes due to operating conditions is outside the scope of the HCM.

    8. 8 Added Principles For 2010 Possible additional principles to deal with issues that have arisen since the Year 2000 HCM. Purpose of Manual Definition of Capacity Incorporation of Reliability Conceptual design tools (Planning methods) Beyond LOS F Software Validation of HCM Methods

    9. 9 Principle #10 – Purpose of HCM The HCM shall provide a capacity estimation method for each facility type that is sensitive to roadway design and control features. Guidance on the estimation of reasonable control settings for given demand levels and design configurations shall be provided.

    10. 10 Principle #11 – Capacity Defined Capacity is defined as: The maximum throughput sustainable for a period of at least XXXX hours averaged over a minimum of YYYY observations. An upstream queue of slower moving vehicles is evidence of a capacity condition.

    11. 11 Principle #12 - Reliability HCM methods should take into account the impacts of incidents, weather and facility management on the sustainability of the estimated capacity. Every estimate of capacity should come with a standard deviation and a cumulative percentage probability of it being achieved or exceeded in any given hour of the year.

    12. 12 Principle #13 – Planning The HCM shall provide a conceptual design method for quickly sizing facilities for a target level of service requiring minimal demand and design data. Can be method or a look-up table. Defaults will be suggested for facility control settings. Planning method must result in greater or equal facility sizes than design method.

    13. 13 Principle #14 – Beyond LOS F HCM shall define gradations of level of service “F” for the number of hours it is expected to endure (e.g. F1 = LOS F for one hour, F2 = LOS F for 2 hours). Methodologies shall be included in the HCM for estimating the duration of LOS “F” for each facility type.

    14. 14 Principle #15 - Software The HCM should provide adequate guidance to those desiring to automate the application of HCM methods through software. The guidance should include algorithm, flow charts, example computations, limits on input ranges, and recommended treatment of exceptions to the input ranges.

    15. 15 Principle #16 – Validation The HCM shall include only methods that have been validated against real world data and will report the measured accuracy of the method. Simulation models may be used in lieu of real world data, if the models are applied to a real world situation and they are calibrated and validated for that specific location and condition. The committee may elect to publish particularly useful but unvalidated methods through a research circular for comment by the profession.

    16. 16 Principle #17 - Uncertainty Information on the impact of input uncertainty on the accuracy of the computed result shall be included in the description of each methodology. The accuracy of using default or field measured inputs shall be compared.

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