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PPT Presentation Template: This PPT includes all slides to present a district or building level overview of PVAAS. This was used with a district-wide K-12 faculty group in a small school district, where one grade level represented one building versus multiple buildings on a district level report.

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Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

PPT Presentation Template:This PPT includes all slides to present a district or building level overview of PVAAS. This was used with a district-wide K-12 faculty group in a small school district, where one grade level represented one building versus multiple buildings on a district level report.


Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

PVAAS:Evaluating Growth,Projecting Performance


Today s session
Today’s Session

  • Concept of PVAAS

  • Overview of Reporting

    • Math and Reading, Grades 4-8

    • Math and Reading, Grade 11

    • Science, Grades 4, 8 and 11

    • Writing, Grades 5, 8 and 11

  • School District Data

  • Questions and Answers



Pvaas is
PVAASIS:

  • Analysis of existing assessment data

    • Longitudinal PSSA scores in available content areas

      • Math, Reading, Science, Writing

    • Provides reliable estimates

  • A measure of a school’s effectiveness

  • Critical Relationship:

    Growth Data vs. Achievement Data


Pvaas
PVAAS:

  • Is not another test

  • Is not a comparison of single test scores

  • Critical concept:

    Does not provide a measure of growth for an individual student


Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

Current Data Collection

Approaches

High Achievement

Average Achievement

Low Achievement

Achievement is based

on each student’s ending point.


Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

PVAAS Adds Another Variable To Achievement…Progress

Below

Growth

Standard

At or Above

Growth

Standard

Progress is based

on each student’s starting point.


Viewing achievement and progress together

Viewing Achievement and Progress Together

Scatter Plots:

Grades 4-8

Reading and Math


The scatter plot coordinate system
The Scatter Plot Coordinate System

Vertical Axis

PSSA Percent Proficient or Advanced

Growth Standard

Boundary

AYP Percent Proficient Target

Horizontal Axis

PVAAS Growth Measure


Scatter plot quadrants and their meanings
Scatter Plot Quadrants and Their Meanings

Quad 2

Adequate Achievement

Negative Growth

Quad 1

Adequate Achievement

Positive Growth

Quad 4

Below Adequate Achievement

Positive Growth

Quad 3

Below Adequate Achievement

Negative Growth


Sd scatter plots grade 4
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 4

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


Sd scatter plots grade 5
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 5

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


Sd scatter plots grade 6
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 6

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


Sd scatter plots grade 7
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 7

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


Sd scatter plots grade 8
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 8

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


Viewing achievement and progress together1

Viewing Achievement and Progress Together

Scatter Plots:

Grade 11

Reading and Math


Grade 11 scatter plots
Grade 11 Scatter Plots

The PSSA-PVAAS Scatter Plots visually display the following data from the statewide distribution of PSSA results for the most current school year.

  • Achievement

    • The mean predicted performance of the cohort.

    • The actual mean performance of all students in the state is displayed for reference

  • Growth

    • School Effect ≈ Observed Mean – Predicted Mean

    • Standardized School Effect = School Effect relative to its error – displays degree of confidence

      The following two slides explain the meaning of each of the regions of an 11th grade scatter plot.


The scatter plot coordinate system for grade 11
The Scatter Plot Coordinate System for Grade 11

Vertical Axis

Mean Predicted Scaled Score

Growth Descriptor

Boundaries (±2SEs)

Horizontal Axis

Growth Measure in Standard Errors

2010 Mean Scaled Score


Scatter plot regions and their meanings for grade 11
Scatter Plot Regions and Their Meanings for Grade 11


Sd scatter plots grade 11
SD Scatter PlotsGrade 11

Reading

Math

Insert District Scatter Plots Here


The two types of pvaas information
The TWO Types ofPVAAS Information

Looking Forward/Planning…

PVAAS Projection Reports For Individual Students and Cohorts of Students

Looking Back/Evaluation…

Value-added Growth Reports For Cohorts of Students

Today

NO individual measure of student growth.



Student projections
Student Projections

Wouldn’t it be great to know the likelihood that a student will be proficient on a future PSSA?


Student projection methodology
Student Projection Methodology

  • A separate longitudinal modeling process focused on the performance scores of individual students.

  • The model uses all of the available data (both math and reading) to project future PSSA performances in Math, Reading, Science and Writing.

  • Projections can be calculated for an individual student or groups of students.


How do i know that the projection is accurate
How do I know that the projectionis accurate?

  • The projection is precise, and is created using a model that has been reviewed and approved by four different peer review panels and the GAO (US Government Accountability Office).

  • The most recent 2008 growth model proposal to USDOE includes information regarding the statistical model and projection reliability study.

    (http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/pa/index.html)

  • Recent studies have confirmed that the PVAAS projections (even as far as 3 years into the future) are more reliable at looking at the future performance of a student than the most recent PSSA score.



Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

PVAAS Projections for

Groups of Students

Student Search


Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

Identified Students

Meeting Search Requirements


Pvaas reporting projections to basic proficient and advanced
PVAAS Reporting Projections to Basic, Proficient, and Advanced

Grade Last Tested

Grade Last Tested

Grade Last Tested


Projection summary reports
Projection Summary Reports

  • What is it?

    • Report that summarizes the numbers and percents of students in likelihood ranges of performing at the proficient level on a future PSSA exam.

  • How might a school use this report?

    • Intervention Planning

    • Resource Allocation

    • Strategic Planning

    • School Improvement Planning

  • Cautions

    • This report provides another indicator about likelihood of future performance.


School single grade projection summary report
School (Single Grade)Projection Summary Report


Value added
Value-Added

Wouldn’t it be great to know if your students made one year’s growth for the year of schooling they experienced last year?

In Math and Reading (4-8 and 11)?

In Science (4, 8 and 11)?

In Writing (5, 8 and 11)?



Value added measure of growth math and reading grades 4 8
Value-added Measure of GrowthMath and Reading (Grades 4-8)

  • Comparison to a State Growth Standard

  • The Growth Standard specifies the minimal acceptable academic gain from grade to grade for a cohort of students.

  • The use of a Growth Standard creates the possibility that ALL schools can demonstrate appropriate growth.


Pvaas value added growth descriptors grade 4 8 math and reading
PVAAS Value-Added Growth Descriptors – Grade 4 – 8 Math and Reading


Pvaas school report grades 4 through 8 math and reading
PVAAS School ReportGrades 4 through 8 - Math and Reading


What value added gain means
What Value-added Gain Means!

Cohort’s Achievement

7th grade

66.6

Cohort’s Achievement

6th grade

60.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

NCE Scale

State Mean = 50

PVAAS Gain ≈ Change in position from 6th to 7th grade

≈ 66.6 – 60.7 ≈ 5.9 NCE points



Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance
Value-added Measure of Cohort GrowthMath and Reading (Grade 11)Science (Grades 4, 8, and 11)Writing (Grades 5, 8, and 11)

Based on a predictive methodology…

  • A predicted score is calculated for each student;

  • Mean of predicted scores is calculated for students in a cohort;

  • Mean of observed scores of students in the cohort;

  • School Effect is the difference between the Observed and the Predicted Scores.


Pvaas predictive analysis
PVAAS Predictive Analysis

We collect all of the individual student data that is available for a minimum of two years.

All of these data are used to develop individual student profiles.

PVAAS then calculates a Predicted Performance Value based on the student profile for each student.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

PSSA PSSA PSSA (11th)

7th8thPredicted Actual


Pvaas ratings of school effect
PVAAS Ratings of School Effect

Remember:

School Effect  Mean of Student Scores – Mean of Predicted Scores

So, if the students perform as expected, School Effect  0.

The ratings are in terms of the expected value of 0.

Not Detectably

Different

Below

Above

-2 SEs 0+2 SEs

Standard Error (SE) is a measure of variation in the prediction.



Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

PVAAS School ReportGrades 11- Math and Reading

Grades 4, 8 & 11 – Science

Grades 5, 8 & 11 – Writing


Summary of pvaas growth methods
Summary ofPVAAS Growth Methods


Summary one year s growth
Summary:One Year’s Growth


Pvaas performance diagnostic report the key is the red whisker
PVAAS Performance Diagnostic ReportThe Key is the RED Whisker!


Growth standard methodology what the whiskers tell us
Growth Standard MethodologyWhat the whiskers tell us…

Exceeded Growth Standard;

More than One Year’s Growth

Green

Met the Growth Standard;

Made One Year’s Growth

Yellow

Growth Standard (One Year’s Growth)

Below Growth Standard;

Less than One Year’s Growth

Rose


Predictive methodology what the whiskers tell us
Predictive MethodologyWhat the whiskers tell us…

ABOVE Expectations -- Observed Score Was Greater Than Predicted Score

NDD – No Detectable Difference Between Observed Score and Predicted Score

Observed – Predicted (One Year’s Growth)

BELOW Expectations -- Observed Score Was Less Than Predicted Score







Pa s intent for pvaas
PA’s Intent for PVAAS

  • Another Tool for Continuous Improvement

  • Measure of Growth to Add to Achievement/Status Measures

  • Not to Be Used in Isolation



Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance
Questions:PVAAS Materials or Statewide Implementationpdepvaas@iu13.org717-606-1911PVAAS Report Web Sitehttps://pvaas.sas.com


Pvaas evaluating growth projecting performance

www.pde.state.pa.us

333 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17126