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Medium-Term Global Trends Impact on Austrian Economy

An in-depth analysis of Austria's economic structure, projections, and changing trends influenced by global factors. Explore insights on household inequality and trade in Austria. Key insights from various sources and projections provided.

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Medium-Term Global Trends Impact on Austrian Economy

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  1. AUSTRIA 2020The impact of medium-term global trends on the Austrian economy E. Christie, J. Francois, M. Holzner, S. Leitner, O. Pindyuk FIW Research Reports: http://www.fiw.ac.at

  2. Contents • Overview of Austria’s Current Economic Structure • Overview of Macroeconomic Projections • Structural Change in Austria • Household Inequality in Austria

  3. Structure of the Austrian economy, 2008 Source: GTAP, wiiw calculations. * Rank 1 means the highest ratio. [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  4. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Coefficients of correlation between Austria and other regions Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  5. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Geographical structure of Austrian trade in 2008, % Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  6. Model Multi-region CGE model with imperfect competition Basic database is built from the GTAP7 database (benchmarked to 2004) 32 sectors, 16 regions Exogenous variables: GDP, population, skilled and unskilled labor, energy prices, TFP in primary food production sector

  7. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Aggregation Scheme [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  8. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Global GDP: 2008 & 2020 Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  9. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Population and labor force growth source: IMF WEO, Eurostat [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  10. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Energy price trends in the 2008-2020 baseline Source: World Bank Pink Sheets and IEA, and industry projections. Cumulative increases in physical capital and TFP: 2008-2020 Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  11. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Global Output by Gross Value: 2008 & 2020 Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  12. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Global Exports by Value: 2008 & 2020 Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  13. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Global Imports by Value: 2008 & 2020 Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  14. Cumulative % increases in real global commodity prices: 2008-2020 Source: World Bank Pink Sheets and IEA, and industry projections (for energy), and CGE model projections (for other).

  15. Changes in CAB, annual position, EUR mn, 2020 relative to 2008 Source: CGE projection-based estimates

  16. Change in the real output, value of exports and imports in Austria over 2008-2020, % Source: CGE projection-based estimates.

  17. Net exports, %GDP Source: CGE projection-based estimates

  18. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Austrian Exports by value: 1992, 2008, & 2020 Europe 83.2% Europe 72.9% Europe 67.8% Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  19. Structure of Austria’s value added, exports and imports, %, and ranks* of industries by capital-labor ratios and ratios of skilled labor to unskilled labor in total costs in 2008[1] Regional Shares of Austrian Imports by value: 1992, 2008, & 2020 Europe 83.0% Europe 76.3% Europe 68.8% Source: CGE projection-based estimates [1] Coal, gas and oil sectors were excluded from this analysis due to their low shares in the total value added.

  20. Household Inequality in Austria Stylised fact: Austria a winner of internationalisation but average wage earner did not participate in gains Literature: only few studies on distributional trade effects in Austria & no multi-country CGE analysis Assumption 2020: unskilled labour -7%, skilled labour +23% (CEDEFOP), population growth 5% GTAP input 2020: factor income for unskilled +11%, skilled +18%, capital +22% Mapping exercise: regression based assignment of inactive to labour force using EU-SILC micro data

  21. Mapping exercise results Income shares: skilled vs. unskilled labour income ratio increases from 37/63 to 48/52 by 2020 Average income: skilled -5%, unskilled +33% due to changes in the number of persons Gini coefficient: Initial 27.5, changes in skilled vs unskilled increases to 28.3, higher capital income increases to 28.5, below average increase of transfers reduces inequality only to 28.1 in 2020 Policy: Compensation of groups being relatively worse off, increasing capital and high income taxation

  22. AUSTRIA 2020The impact of medium-term global trends on the Austrian economy E. Christie, J. Francois, M. Holzner, S. Leitner, O. Pindyuk FIW Research Reports: http://www.fiw.ac.at

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