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How much of a game-changer is LTE? Technology developments and regulatory implications. Presentation for the Latin America Spectrum Conference 2012 Amit Nagpal. 25 October 2012. How do we resolve the “capacity crunch”?. Global mobile data traffic forecast.

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how much of a game changer is lte technology developments and regulatory implications

How much of a game-changer is LTE?Technology developments and regulatory implications

Presentation for the Latin America Spectrum Conference 2012

Amit Nagpal

25 October 2012

how do we resolve the capacity crunch
How do we resolve the “capacity crunch”?

Global mobile data traffic forecast

Decoupling of traffic from revenues

Source: Cisco, 2012

Source: Light Reading

spectrum is part of but not the only answer
Spectrum is part of (but not the only) answer
  • Deployment of next generation more spectrally efficient technologies (e.g. HSPA+/LTE)
  • Acquisition of new frequencies and re-farming of existing bands
  • Off-loading of traffic onto fixed networks (WiFi and femtocells)
  • Deployment of new sites

Source: Vodafone

lte provides significan t performance improvements
LTE provides significant performance improvements

LTE/HSPA+ carrier performance

Source: Huawei

lte makes more efficient use of available spectrum
LTE makes more efficient use of available spectrum

Theoreticalincrease inspectral efficiency

Real-world estimate (takingaccount of networkconfigurations,technology take-upby consumers etc)

Three-foldimprovementbetween 2011and 2016(CAGR of 25%)

Source: Real Wireless

wider channels present a challenge for regulators
Wider channels present a challenge for regulators
  • The amounts of low frequency spectrum available for award are limited (e.g. 2x30MHz of spectrum in European digital dividend band)
  • Is it better to have more competing network infrastructures each making less efficient use of the spectrum (smaller channel widths) or to have fewer competing infrastructures but with each operator making more efficient use of the spectrum?

20MHz channel

10MHz channel

15MHz channel

15MHz channel

Alternative options forassignment of 60MHzof spectrum(examples)

10MHz channel

10MHz channel

10MHz channel

5MHzchannel

5MHzchannel

10MHz channel

10MHz channel

frequency sharing between operators is one possibility
Frequency sharing between operators is one possibility
  • ARCEP in France is allowing operators to share frequencies in order to provide high speed services to rural communities
  • Maintains the benefit of three competing infrastructure players in urban areas
carrier aggregation technology provides a solution
Carrier Aggregation Technology provides a solution

LTE carrier aggregation

What is carrier aggregation?

  • With the development of LTE towards LTE-Advanced, operators will be able to virtually aggregate their spectrum holdings in order to deploy a larger LTE carrier
  • This will allow operators to deploy LTE at higher peak rates, without having to own contiguous spectrum

AT&T to aggregate acquired spectrum

  • In 2011, AT&T acquired Qualcomm’s unpaired 700MHz spectrum holdings
  • AT&T is planning on aggregating the spectrum with its existing AWS (1700/2100MHz) band in order to increase the speed offered over its current LTE network
  • AT&T is pushing for carrier aggregation utilising LTE rather than waiting for LTE-Advanced technologies and is aiming to deploy compatible networks from 2014

Carrier Aggregation Technology (CAT) is a central component of LTE Advanced (Release 10)

  • CAT will allow up to 5 2x20MHz channels to be combined to offer data rates of up to 3Gbps

850MHz

700MHz

2x10MHz

Actual carrier

2x10MHz

Actual carrier

2x20MHz

Virtual carrier

Note: Carrier aggregation technologiescan also be used to aggregatenon-contiguous spectrum blockswithin the same frequency band

combining frequency sharing and cat may be required
Combining frequency sharing and CAT may be required
  • The European Union has a target to provide minimum 30Mbps broadband to 100% of households by 2020
  • A recent presentation by Nokia Siemens Networks suggested this could be achieved using LTE-Advanced with carrier aggregation of all the spectrum in the 700MHz and 800MHz bands

Source: ‘Bringing Mobile Broadband to Rural Areas’, presentation by UlrichRehfuess, Head of Spectrum Policyand Regulation, Nokia Siemens Networks,presented at WIK Mobile broadband –Competitive dynamics and policyimplications conference,11-12 September 2012

final question
Final question ….

Is the provision of telecoms network infrastructure heading back to being a monopoly business?

annex
Annex

Introduction to Aetha Consulting

A.1

aetha consulting
Aetha Consulting

Aetha Consulting helps players in the telecommunications industry to develop creative and sustainable solutions to the challenges facing them in a constantly changing environment

We specialise in undertaking rigorous, data-driven and quantitative assessments to support major strategic and regulatory decisions. We work with our clients to develop the tools and methodologies appropriate to solve each new business problem as it arises

Our staff have been contracted to advise on key industry issues, including: market strategy development, radio spectrum policy, spectrum valuation and auction support

We are committed to quality and exceeding our client's expectations. We have a strong track record of successful assignments with operators, regulators, and manufacturers, as well as financial and legal institutions

Trusted advisor to the telecoms industry,

undertaking data-driven and quantitative assessments

to support strategic and regulatory decisions

spectrum management experience
Spectrum management experience

We help operators and regulators to analyse the opportunities and threats arising out of changes in their radio spectrum holdings

Our staff have supported operators in over 25 spectrum auctions worldwide in the last 10 years including:

800MHz and 2.6GHz (4G) auctions in Europe including Austria, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland

2.1GHz (3G) auctions in Asia including India, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan

New entrant licence acquisition opportunities in countries such as the AWS auction in Canada and 2G/3G auctions in Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, Libya and Qatar.

Our consultants have assisted regulators to award spectrum including supporting the UK andDanish Governments with awards of 420MHz, 800MHz, 1.5GHz, 2.1GHz and 2.6GHz spectrum

recent company track record

14

Recent company track record

Since Aetha was founded in July 2011 we have worked for over 20 clients

The topics covered have included a wide range of topics across our service portfolio

900MHz and 1800MHz auction support

Appeal against wholesale price decision

Competitor spectrum valuations

Cost model for mobile services (various models and review projects)

Digital dividend case studies

Independent valuation of GSM spectrum

Independent valuation review for 800MHz auction

IPTV business plan forbroadbandoperator

NGA access pricing advice

Number portability

Premium TV content valuation advice

Reserve price analysis

Spectrum auction support (numerous projects for operators and regulators)

Spectrum policy advice

Spectrum re-farming paper

Strategy review for fixed operator

Support to operator on regulatory consultation document (various projects)

Target and budget setting

Clients *

Projects *

  • ComReg (Ireland)
  • Eircom (Ireland)
  • GSM Association
  • IBPT (Belgium)
  • KPN
  • Millicom
  • Ofcom (UK)
  • Oger Telecommunications
  • Orange
  • P4 (Poland)
  • QinetiQ
  • Sky
  • SUTEL (Costa Rica)
  • Talk Talk Group
  • TDC (Denmark)
  • Telecom Italia
  • Telefónica
  • Telenor
  • Tigo (Colombia, Paraguay)
  • TürkTelekom

* The client and project lists are in different orders, so each line on the right hand list does not necessarily correspond with the same line on the left hand list

contact details
Contact details

Amit Nagpal

Partner

amit.nagpal@aethaconsulting.com

Tel: +44 7546 912355

Graham Johnson

Partner

graham.johnson@aethaconsulting.com

Tel: +44 7500 961907

Aetha Consulting Limited Coton Hall 10 Brookfield Road Coton Cambridge CB23 7PT United Kingdom

www.aethaconsulting.com