Refinery Investments and Future Market Incentives

1. Refinery Investments and Future Market Incentives Joanne Shore John Hackworth U.S. Energy Information Administration September 29, 2008 Platts 2nd Annual European Refining Markets Conference

2. Overview: Factors Affecting Investment Decisions Demand • Demand: Growth and Mix Shift • Feedstocks: Incentives to use lower quality feedstocks (Light-heavy differentials) • Margins Feedstocks Margins

3. Future Demand Growth and Product Mix Shifts • Growth: Mainly outside the Atlantic Basin • Product Mix Shifts & Investment: • U.S. – Different future • Europe – Continued shift in from gasoline to distillate • Asia – Less issue of shift than of growth Demand

4. World Consumption Growing: Largest Growth Outside U.S. & Europe U.S. & Europe Rest of World Excl FSU Source: BP World Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008

5. Europe Major Driver of World Consumption Mix Shift Towards Distillates Source: BP World Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008

6. Atlantic Basin Price Incentives Shifting Toward Distillates Source: Bloomberg New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline, No. 2 Heating Oil; NW Europe 0.2% Heating Oil and Premium Gasoline

7. U.S. – Steps to Increased Distillate • Operating changes – Beginning to see U.S. system potential to shift from gasoline to distillate • Planned hydrocracking investments (Marathon Garyville, Motiva Port Arthur, Valero)

8. U.S.: Distillate Focus This Summer Illustrated Operating Yield Shift Potential Source: EIA Form 810

9. U.S. Petroleum-Based* Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Needs Shift * Petroleum-Based excludes ethanol, biodiesel, and distillate from coal-to-liquids and biomass-to-liquids. Source: AEO 2008 Reference Case

10. Future U.S. Investment to Produce More Distillate • Equipment changes: • Cut-point shifts • Distillation efficiency • Hydrotreating expansion • Catalyst changes – FCC catalysts to produce more light cycle oil • Planned hydrocracking investments coming on stream • May not need more to satisfy U.S. demand shift and increase some exports of distillate

11. Increasing European Distillate Production • Refineries are already operating at maximum distillate potential (unlike the U.S.) • Historical investments resulted in making more distillate by destroying residual fuel rather than reducing gasoline production.

12. OECD Europe: Imbalance Between Refining and Demand Met with Imports/Exports European Refinery Yields Net Import/Export Balance Source: IEA August 2008 Data Base

13. Europe: What Next for Product Mix Investment? • Seeing more distillate production investment in Southern Europe. Hydrocracking expansions include: • Portugal 50 KB/D • Spain 180 KB/D • Italy 70 KB/D • Greece 30 KB/D • Total 330 KB/D • Biodiesel

14. Feedstocks: Investing to Take Advantage of Widening Light-Heavy Differentials • Drivers behind the widening price difference • Supply of light crude • Product market influences on the price differentials • Conversion capacity impacts on differentials Feedstocks

15. Supplies of Light Sweet Crude Increasing in Atlantic Basin Atlantic Basin Crude Production Projections Note: Most growth on this chart is in areas with higher quality crude oils. Latin America includes Venezuela and Mexico with their heavy crude oils, but these areas is not projected to grow much Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2008, Wood Mackenzie Presentation NPRA Annual Conference 2007

16. Light-Heavy Product Price Difference Increases with Crude Oil Price Source: Bloomberg spot prices (LLS – Louisiana Light Sweet; GC – Gulf Coast)

17. Light-Heavy Product Price Differential & Crude Oil Price Move Together Source: Bloomberg spot prices (LLS – Louisiana LIght Sweet; GC – Gulf Coast)

18. Light-Heavy Price DifferentialsMove Together Source: Bloomberg spot prices (LLS – Louisiana Light Sweet; GC – Gulf Coast)

19. Higher Light-Heavy Price Differences Go With Higher Price Levels – But Much “Scatter” Source: Bloomberg spot prices

20. Refiners Continue to Process Crude without Increasing Fuel Oil Yields Source: IEA August 2008 Data Base

21. Future Coking Increases: Will Expansions Affect Light-Heavy Spread? Source: Purvin & Gertz, GPMO Service

22. Margins – Short Golden Age • Margin Indicators • U.S. vs Europe • Future Implications Margins

23. Refining Output Variations Impact Profitability Source: Purvin & Gertz, GPMO Service

24. U.S. Margin Indicator Higher Due to No Residual Fuel and More Gasoline

25. Future Profitability • Light-heavy price differentials • May decline some with growing conversion capacity and slightly lower crude oil prices • But likely to remain relatively high • Margins • U.S. gasoline margins under pressure from growing European exports, ethanol use, and improved vehicle efficiencies, but U.S. refinery margins likely to remain higher than in the 1990’s • Atlantic Basin distillate margins likely to be higher than gasoline more often in the future as regional distillate imbalance continues • European margins buoyed by strength in distillate demand, but also depend on U.S. gasoline margins

26. Summary • Investment to produce more distillate • Future demand shifts imply attractive choice for some refiners to increase distillate yields • Bottoms upgrading investment • Light heavy differentials likely to stay elevated as crude price stays high • Amount of heavy upgrading may not impact light-heavy price differences greatly as total residual production not expected to change much and as residual fuel market demand is affected by environmental concerns. • Margins – Short golden age, but still better than 1990s • Margin levels impact all types of refining investment, but especially expansion • Little need for expansion in Atlantic Basin – expansion could negatively impact margin

27. Questions? www.eia.doe.gov joanne.shore@eia.doe.gov