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What is Delphi?

What is Delphi?. Set of procedures for eliciting & refining opinions of a group but without disadvantages associated with face-to-face meetings Through iterative questionnaires Relies on the informed intuitive opinions of specialists on a defined issue

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What is Delphi?

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  1. What is Delphi? • Set of procedures for eliciting & refining opinions of a group but without disadvantages associated with face-to-face meetings • Through iterative questionnaires • Relies on the informed intuitive opinions of specialists on a defined issue • Collective judgment (although made up of subjective opinions) is more reliable than individual statements, thus more objective in its outcomes • Consensus (or a stable position) is reached after eliciting options • Developed at RAND (used first in 1953) for military applications • Very widely used under different variations and very widely debated in the literature

  2. Main Characteristics • Based on the assumption that collective expert judgement is a valuable method of idea identification and forecasting in the absence of reliable data on which to base traditional forecasting techniques • Anonymity • Iteration with controlled feedback • Statistical group response • Broadens participation and has associated process benefits (i.e. learning over several rounds) • Useful for policy and decision making processes (e.g. spelt out explicitly or derived from variables such as constraints)

  3. Delphi Process NO NO YES Definition of Objective and/or Focus Construction of Statements & Questionnaire Application of Questionnaire Statistical Analysis Sufficient Rounds? Consensus Achieved? Final Report Selection of Experts YES

  4. General points to bear in mind • Need to obtain agreement to take part – consider paying pool members (if outside the organisation) • Delphi procedure will need to be completely explained • Avoid ambiguous statements of events • Make the questionnaire user-friendly • Number of questions (< 50) & words used in statements (16 to 30) • Workload involved • Turnaround time between questionnaires • Use of IT systems • Rarely used in isolation

  5. What a Delphi looks like . . .

  6. EUFORIA a project of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions • Long-term prospects for living conditions, working conditions and industrial relations • Joint construction of the Knowledge Society Foresight • 6 areas: • Governance and Mobility • Health and Privacy • Industrial Relations • Living Conditions • Sustainability and Development • Working Conditions What a Delphi looks like . . .

  7. Values Structure Strategy Operations Vision Competences Motivation Partnerships Communication Technology Strategy Ex: business sustainability [1] • Influence of each variable on business sustainability (testing the model)0 (no importance) to 4 (crucial) • Influence of each variable on each another(testing hypothesis and mutual interactions between variables)-2 (strongly decrease) to +2 (strongly increase); 0 (no effect) • 5 statements per variable with 6 cross-cutting questions on the other variables to test mutual influences • Both online and hard copies

  8. Ex: business sustainability [2] JRC-IPTS Foresight Training – Bucharest – 22 and 23 March 2010 • Input for statements: result of case studies (interviews and firms’ documents) • Interviews with directors of procurement, environment, social relations, IT, human resources, operations, etc • Delphi experts: responsible and involved in business reporting such as GRI (including financial, environment and social aspects), database of consultants, and organisations involved in certification (i.e. ISO standards) • 2 languages • 2 pilot tests to refine statements (with firms and academics)

  9. Values 18.8% 13.5% 13.1% Structure Strategy 6.0% 14.2% 13.1% 21.3% Operations Vision Competences Motivation Partnerships Communication Technology Strategy Ex: business sustainability [3] 7 4 3 2 5 6 1

  10. Flow structure of the Delphi Questioning 1. Delphi- 2. Delphi- 3. Delphi- Questioning- Questioning- Questioning- Waste-Experts round round round Research- Analysis Analysis Analysis Delphi-Team project, Goals, of 1. Round, of 2. Round, of 3. Round, Scenarios new Quest. new Quest. Synthesis Ex: 1998: Delphi Expert Questioning onFuture Waste Management in Switzerland • Delphi Questioning of ~90 stakeholders from Swiss waste management field. • To supply an overview of visions and scenarios of the future of waste management with emphasis on its social implications. • Based on interconnected areas: society, technology, ecology, economics, politics.

  11. Ex: Results of Delphi Questioning • Some results (Joos et al., 1999) • Situation and development of Swiss waste management. • Problems of public acceptance regarding disposal facilities: Location, costs, health-risks, environmental damage, recycling • Measures for improving Swiss waste management.

  12. Ex: 2003 - 2004: Delphi Expert Questioning onSustainable Development of Alpine Regions • Delphi Questioning of 80 Experts (Politics, Science, Economy, NGO) as Support of Content-Basis for the Certification of Alpine Regions • in 2 Rounds (May 2003 – Feb. 2004) focussing on: • Common understanding & acceptance of term "sustainable development" • Institutional anchorage & implementation of sustainable reg. development • Goal system of sustainable regional development – priority setting

  13. Sustainable Use of Regional & Natural Resources Support Ecosystem and Biodiversity Foster Multifaceted Cultural Landscape Minimise Environment & Resource Consumption 1 Major-Goal 3 x 1 Minor-Goals 3 x 5 Sub-Goals Enhance Renewable Energy Intact Environment Enhance Regional Problem-Solving Increase Participation of Regional Stakeholders Environment Foster Appreciation for Nature & People Enhance Education and Training Strengthen Personal Responsibility Coherent Society Sustainable Use of Regional Resources Sustainable Regional Development Society Support Innovation Development within Region Strengthen Regional Economic Cycles Create Jobs in the Region Productive Economy Enhance Competitiveness of the Region Economy Ex: Goal System of Sustainable Regional Development

  14. Ex: Strategy for Sustainable Regional Development

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