CDT403 Forskningsmetodik inom naturvetenskap och teknik. Complexity 130926, 13.15-15.00, Zeta

1. CDT403 Forskningsmetodik inom naturvetenskap och teknik.Complexity130926, 13.15-15.00, Zeta Tomas Backström, professor Innovation management IDT Eskilstuna, MDH

2. View from my kitchen window Sofia skola Konsum SL SL

3. Critical realism (Roy Bhaskar) Mechanismsunderlying events Real events Our interpretations Theory

4. Do we need complex systems theory? Normal simplification strategy in Science Reductionism: • Reduce complex systems to ordered systems. • Assume independence and linearity. • Analysis-synthesis, cause-effect, prediction…

5. Lemmings Causesbehind theseregularpopulation growths? County Administrative Board, 091008 http://www.ac.lst.se/naturochmiljo/miljoovervakning/fjall/smadaggdjur

6. Patterns of population growth Verhulst equation: dX/dt = μX(1-X/A)(X = population size, μ = intrinsic growth rate, A = maximum size,μX = exponential growth, (1-X/A) = rate-limiting) • μ = 2.5 => Xn+1 = Xn Stable • μ = 3.3 => Xn+2 = Xn • μ = 3.5 => Xn+4 = Xn • μ = 4.0 => Xn+a ≠ Xn Chaotic

7. Bifurkation diagramme Xn+1 = Xn Xn+2 = Xn Xn+4 = Xn Xn+a ≠ Xn

8. Three phases • Stable (Xn+1 = Xn).Trivial patterns. • Complex (Xn+a = Xn). Non-trivial patterns. • Chaotic (Xn+a ≠ Xn). No patterns.

9. Example double pendulum • Example pendulum: T and l key variables: T = 2п√l/gUse analysis-synthesis for a double pendulum • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U39RMUzCjiU

10. Three phases • Stable (Xn+1 = Xn).Trivial patterns, no adaptation. No learning. • Complex (Xn+a = Xn).Non-trivial patterns at many different scales.Order for free, emergence of self-organisation. Learning. • Chaotic (Xn+a ≠ Xn). No patterns, no stability, no memory. No learning

11. To use complex system theory in research:Simplification strategies Science: Reductionism Complex systems theory: Universality Assume same types of processes and structures Key processes, e.g. emergence Actors, their interactionsand the emerging structures Circular causality Comprehension Influence • Assume independence and linearity • Key variables • Analysis-synthesis • Cause-effect • Prediction • Control

12. Three phases, organizations as examples • Order – the industrial work system with centralized control of details.(Change, development and innovation are side-activities). • Complexity – a well-functioning and experienced soccer team. • Chaos – ”In the past 18 months 23 employees at France Telecom have committed suicide, which unions blame on the firm's restructuring program.” 091008http://www.france24.com/en/20090913-labour-minister-calls-ceo-discuss-suicides-telecom-lombard-darcos

13. Bikupa • Bee-hive • Two-cover • Talk about a married couple from the perspective of complexity. Is it possible that all three phases exists in the same marriage over a short time span? • order (regularities, memory, identity, structures, self-organisation, integration) • chaos (unpredictable changes at low level, transformations, autonomy) • complexity (develops, learns, adapts).

14. To use complex system theory as an ideal for an organisation Have both: Order, like regularities, memory and identity. Mechanisms are e.g. emergence of self-organization. andChaos, like unpredictable changes at low level and transformations.Mechanisms are e.g. autonomy and external influence. and, are thus, Complex, adapts, learns and develops.

15. One requirement to be fulfilled:Sub-actor <–> Actor <–> Meta-actor • An actor is a wholeness and can only be understood as a wholeness (also true for sub-actors and meta-actors). • An actor consists of sub-actors and is part of a meta-actor. • An actor is independent, has its own identity, rhythm and pattern of behavior. • An actor is dependent of a bigger wholeness, the meta-actor, a slave under structures emerging from interactions (exchange of information/matter/energy ) with other actors of the meta-actor.

16. Example • Twoways to understand innovative organization.

18. Bakgrund till de tre texterna Industrial mechanical organisation Post-industrial organic organisation Degrees of freedom to act Techno-structure design standardisationsincluding plans, rules and routines

19. Different ways to perform work Acting Structures formulated by managers Standards, systems, control Tacit emergent collective structures Institutionalisations Freedom of action Culture Relatonics Vision, goal, values Lines, meetings, shared Relating Thinking Convergence –strengthens structures Divergence – increase freedom

20. Example of convergence: The emergence of culture in a work group • Values of supervisor. • Talk about goals and plans. • At least once a month. • Everyone is included.

21. Converging divergence Common goals Improvisation Positive Shared tasks Quality of commu-nication Reasons to com-municate Dialogue Convergence Shared responibilities Weak ties External contacts External intelligence New informa-tion Arenas for commu-nication Divergence Meetings Activities Room design Customer experinces Customer focus Motives for change Rewards Feed-back of quality Compared with others Meet customer Sequrity

22. Different ways to perform work Acting Structures formulated by managers Standards, systems, control Tacit emergent collective structures Institutionalisations Freedom of action Culture Relatonics Vision, goal, values Lines, meetings, shared Relating Thinking Autonomy Integration

23. Integrated autonomy Institutions Collective Motivatingleadership Culture Emergent structures Sub-mission Relatonics Integration Identification Expecteddo different Permissiveleadership Permissive collective Freedom of action Partici-pation Autonomy Planning process Including leadership Openess Compe-tence Motives Knowledge Rewarding Need to increase fitness Experiences OK to make mistakes Social support

24. Implementation of integrated autonomy (the rheo task of leadership) 5 Attractive work 7 External relations 3 Balanced communication 6 Group creativity 4 Integrated autonomy 2 Dialogue Pre-measure Experiment Post-measure Task Experience WS1 WS2 – WS8 Collective reflection New concepts Formulate task

25. Changes in the attractivity of the work place Table 3. Pre- and post-assessments of employees’ perception of the work, a comparison between means for all employees in the included workgroups. **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

26. Emergence – more general Changes are based on earlier stages, thus identity is preserved. Structure(order parameter) Continuous creation and re-creation of the structure The structuregovern the processes Circular causality Complex processes with a lot of interactingindependent actors

27. Three phases • Stable (Xn+1 = Xn).Formulas, mathematical equations. • Complex (Xn+a = Xn).Chaos theory.Simulations. • Chaotic (Xn+a ≠ Xn). Undescribable.

28. Actorbased simulation • NetLogo:Modelslibrary:Socialscience:Cooperation