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Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION

Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION. Prof.ssa Luisa Natale 2012/13 Monday and Tuesday 10-12 (A.0.0.5) http://www.docente.unicas.it/luisa_natale / email oli59@mclink.it. MOBILITY AND MIGRATION. 4a. MEASURES. Measures. The study of migration focuses on:

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Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION

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  1. Global Economy and BusinessMOBILITY AND MIGRATION • Prof.ssa Luisa Natale • 2012/13 • Monday and Tuesday 10-12 (A.0.0.5) • http://www.docente.unicas.it/luisa_natale/ • email oli59@mclink.it

  2. MOBILITY AND MIGRATION 4a. MEASURES

  3. Measures The study of migration focuses on: • Intensity (absolute values, rate, …) • Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type

  4. A) Intensity of migration Estimate of NET MIGRATION Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens

  5. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate For example: Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide 6) Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html → Bilancio demografico 2010 B. Indirect estimate

  6. Total Population Balance nPt = nPt-1+nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t B = births D = deaths I = Immigration E = Emigration t = time, n = type of population (in this case, total population) nB∆t - nD∆t = Natural Increase n I∆t - nE∆t = Net Migration

  7. Total Population Increase • nPt - nPt-1 = Total population increase • nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t+n I∆t - nE∆t • This is the classical definition of a population balance

  8. The real population balance • In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase • Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)

  9. The two population balances • nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t+n I∆t - nE∆t the classical population balance • nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t+n I∆t - nE∆t + n OI∆t - nOE∆t + n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered/cancelled (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance the real population balance (see Italy)

  10. The internal migration balance (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance = enrolledfromothersmunicipalities-cancelled to othermunicipalities It shouldbeegual to zero, but due to late in the process of registration/deregistration of flows in eachmunicipalities the balance isalwaysdifferentfromzero (oftenfifty-sixtythousands of movements, veryscarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internalmovements)

  11. EXERCISE • Write: • 1) the Equation of total population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate ,slide 12) • 2) total population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

  12. TOTAL POPULATION BALANCEA. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)

  13. EXERCISE • Natural Increase= nB∆t - nD∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544 • Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = +n I∆t - nE∆t = 458856 – 78771=380,085 • Technical balancen OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered – others cancelled = 40040 – 119416 = - 79376 (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )=total internal balance=1374363-1363414=10949 Other components (net migration due to other reasons):-79376 – 10949 = - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): 380085 – 68427= 311,658

  14. Equation of Population: Italy 2010,31.12   60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658 where: Natural Increase: - 25,544 Net (International) Migration: + 380,085 Other components (net migration due to other reasons): - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): + 311,658 Total Increase: 60,626,442 - 60,340,328 = 286,114

  15. FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCEA. Direct estimate

  16. Equation of Foreign population Population Total Increase→ fPt - fPt-1 fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt+ fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt- fOEt + + fIntI∆t-nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase fIt - fEt= Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad) fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled) fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities - cancelled to others municipalities)

  17. EXERCISE Write: 1) the Equation of foreign population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate, slide 12) 2) foreign population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

  18. Equation of Foreign population fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt+ fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt- fOEt + + fIntI∆t-nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78,082 - 5,124 fIt - fEt= Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424,499 - 32,817 = 391682 fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= 22272-91093 = - 68821 fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = 234190 – 228813= 5377

  19. FOREIGN NET MIGRATION ESTIMATEA. Direct estimate • Net (International) Migration: + 391682 • Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391682 – 68821 + 5377 = + 328238

  20. Equation of Foreign Population(Italy 2010) 4,570,317 = 4,235,059 + 72,958 + 328,238 + (-65,938) 4,570,317 - 4,235,059 = + 72,958 + 328,238 - 65,938 335,258 = 335,258 Total Increase = 335,258 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68,821 + 5,377 = +328238 Natural Increase = +72,958 Naturalised = -65,938

  21. Foreign population increase (Italy 2010) 4570317 - 4235059 = +335258

  22. EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign population by distinguish each component Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December 2011. Italy

  23. Foreign contribution to the increase • During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component:

  24. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATEB. Indirect estimate Estimation of net migration (nNMt) by the availability of natural increase (nBt - nDt) and population (type n) in two points (nPt and nPt-1): nNMt = nPt - nPt-1 – (nBt - nDt)

  25. Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 223 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = ?

  26. Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 221 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = 221 – (-176) = + 397

  27. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE B. Indirect estimate Weakness • You can estimate only the balance (no information about gross flows) • in the case of a sub-national area you can estimate the internal balance + international balance • weakness of the measurement in developing countries

  28. 1.Indirect estimate : Foreign Born Population Case study Population balance equation bPt = bPt-1 - bDt + bIt - bEt then: bNM = bIt - bEt = bPt - bPt-1 + bDt “Reduced Equation” (… births are lacking!)

  29. 2. Indirect estimate: Foreign Citizen Population Population equation fPt = fPt-1 + fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt Then: fNM = fIt - fEt = fPt – fPt- - fBt + fDt + fNt

  30. MIGRATION INTENSITY OF INFLOW AND OUTFLOW 1. Interested to both the migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow 2. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate

  31. Migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow Considers as (Boyle, Halfacree, Robinson, 1998) • IMi = Gross In-Migration, the volume of in-migration moving into a place i • OMi = Gross Out-Migration, the volume of out-migration moving from a place i In this case Net Migration is defined as the algebraic sum of gross flows: NMi = IMi - OMi (as in the previous slides…)

  32. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate To allow comparison among different places or the same place over time the measures are standardized by dividing the volumes by the average population of the place, so obtaining a RATE

  33. RATES • IMRi = IMi / Pi x 1,000 that is in-migration rate • OMRi = OMi / Pi x 1,000 out-migration rate • NMRi = (IMi - OMi) / Pi x 1,000 net-migration rate with Pi average population, that is the population on average counted during all the year (or during all the period)

  34. Average population A good approximation of this average population can be obtained: a) using the population observed at the mid-term b) using a semi-sum of the population at the initial and the final period considered. Noting that in the case in which the observation of flows is made across a non-year period (for example, more than one year) the calculus must take into account this odd temporal reference.

  35. The crude migration rate: an example

  36. Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). South Regions Region Internal External Other Total cause _____________________________________________ Abruzzo 0,9 5,4 - 1,0 5,3 Molise 0,8 3,1 - 0,3 3,6 Campania - 3,7 2,5 - 0,3 - 1,5 Puglia - 2,1 1,9 - 0,4 - 0,6 Basilicata - 2,7 2,2 - 0,1 - 0,6 Calabria - 3,5 3,4 - 0,3 - 0,4 Sicilia - 1,7 2,3 - 0,6 0,0 Sardegna - 0,2 1,9 0,0 1,7 ITALIA 0.1* 5,3 - 1,1 4,3 Nord 1,3 6,6 - 1,6 6,3 Nord-ovest 1,4 6,5 - 1,5 6,4 Nord-est 1,3 6,8 - 1,8 6,3 Centro 1,3 7,2 - 1,3 7,2 Mezzogiorno - 2,2 2,5 - 0,4 - 0,1 Sud - 2,6 2,7 - 0,4 - 0,3 Isole - 1,4 2,2 - 0,4 0,4

  37. Example Calculate a immigration pluri-annual rate (IMR), considering: nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000 IM2008-2009 = 900,000

  38. Example: solution nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000 IM2008-2009 = 900,000 Average Population (2008-2009) = AP2008-2009 AP2008-2009 = (56,000,000+55,000,000)/2 * 2 = 111,000,000 Finally: IMR2008-2009 = 900,000 / 111,000,000 = 8,11 per thousands

  39. Emigration and immigration rate: a paradox The meaning of the out and in-migration rate unfortunately is not the same. While OMR is clearly a measure of propensity to go out of a population, IMR has not the same interpretation, because the propensity to enter to a specific place i moving from j different places depends of the propensity of these j different places to generate flows towards i. Clearly OMR is a measure of propensity (in other words it is a proxy of a probability), IMR is a measure of impact.

  40. SPECIFIC RATES • IMRi,x = IMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 that is in-migration age-specific rate • OMRi,x = OMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 out-migration age-specific rate • NMRi,x = (IMi,x - OMi,x) / Pi,x per 1,000 net-migration age-specific rate with Pi,x average population at age x, that is the yearly population in age x on average

  41. Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991

  42. Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991

  43. Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010.

  44. Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010. The age-model of OEF and OEI is quite the same

  45. Total Mobility Rate: an example TMT: Sum of age-specific mobility rates

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