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Overview of global statistics on orphans and children out of home care. The Way Forward Project, First Working Groups Convening Waterview Conference Center, Arlington, Virginia, February 9-11, 2011. Claudia Cappa Statistics and Monitoring Section, UNICEF, NY . Outline.

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overview of global statistics on orphans and children out of home care

Overview of global statistics on orphans and children out of home care

The Way Forward Project, First Working Groups Convening

Waterview Conference Center, Arlington, Virginia, February 9-11, 2011

Claudia Cappa

Statistics and Monitoring Section, UNICEF, NY

outline
Outline
  • Present global estimates of orphans and explain how these numbers are calculated
  • Examples of data analysis on orphans and main findings
  • UNICEF support for data collection on orphans and children’s living arrangements
  • UNICEF methodological work on estimates of children out of home care
  • Interagency work on children in formal care
definition of orphans
Definition of orphans
  • A child who has lost one or both parents (i.e. not only children who have lost both parents, but also those who have lost a father but have a surviving mother or have lost their mother but have a surviving father)
  • Definition adopted in the mid-1990s as the AIDS pandemic began leading to the death of millions of parents worldwide
  • Terminology of a ‘single orphan’ – the loss of one parent – and a ‘double orphan’ – the loss of both parents
  • Estimates not be interpreted to mean that these children are in need of a new family, shelter, or care
  • Evidence clearly shows that the vast majority of orphans are living with a surviving parent, grandparent, or other family member.  More than 90 per cent of all orphans are over the age of five
interagency estimates on orphans
Interagency estimates on orphans

Methods

  • Nationally representative surveys
  • Demographic calculations
national surveys
National surveys
  • Two main sources
    • Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
    • Multiple Independent Cluster Surveys (MICS)
  • Strengths
    • Nationally representative samples of households
    • Provides detail on age, orphanhood status and well-being of children
  • Weaknesses
    • Only captures children living in households
    • May under-estimate maternal orphans
demographic estimates
Demographic estimates
  • Prepared by United Nations Agencies
  • Based on demographic estimates and projection for all countries prepared by United Nations Population Division
  • Estimates of the number of orphans by age, sex, cause (AIDS and non-AIDS), and type (maternal, paternal, double)
demographic estimates8
Demographic estimates
  • Strengths
    • Estimates available for all countries and all years
    • Separate estimates for AIDS and non-AIDS orphans
  • Weaknesses
    • May be less accurate than surveys since requires good estimates of fertility and mortality
    • Provides no information about living conditions of child (in or out of family care, living in poverty or not)
demographic estimates9
Demographic estimates

The number of orphans caused by each adult death is estimated from past fertility and child survival patterns. Surviving children are tracked through time as they age and, in some cases, die.

Example of a parent who dies at age 35. If that person had three children, born when the parent was 22, 24 and 34 years old, and all children survived, then the parent’s death would create 3 orphans, aged 6, 11 and 13 at the time of death.

Death

Age

15 20 25 30 35

Births X XX

Age at parent’s death 13 11 6

Sources: Grassly NC, Timaeus IM. Methods to estimate the number of orphans as a result of AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa J Acquir Immune DeficSyndr 2005;39:365e75. Grassly NC, Lewis JJC, Mahy M, et al. Comparison of survey estimates with UNAIDS/WHO projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa. Popul Studs 2004;58:207e17.

number of orphans global estimates 2009
Number of orphans: global estimates, 2009

Million

Source: Children and AIDS Fifth Stocktaking Report, 2010.

number of orphans by region 2009
Number of orphans by region, 2009

Source: Children and AIDS Fifth Stocktaking Report, 2010.

the multiple indicator cluster survey
The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
  • Household surveys designed to collect data on children and women and to provide evidence base for improved policy formulation and programme planning
  • Key data source for monitoring the MDGs, the World Fit for Children goals, and other major international commitments
  • More than 100 indicators (nutrition, child health, mortality, child protection, education, HIV, etc.)
  • Data available by background characteristics (sex, ethnicity, wealth, education, etc.) and at the sub-national level
  • Harmonized with DHS
multiple indicator cluster surveys mics 15 years 100 countries and 200 surveys
Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)15 years, 100 countries and 200 surveys

Note: Countries with at least one MICS survey.

slide15

MICS Questionnaire for households

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop

mics data on children s living arrangements and orphanhood
MICS data on children’s living arrangements and orphanhood
  • *MICS indicator 78: Children who are not living with at least one biological parent, either because the parents live elsewhere or because the parents are dead (HL9=2 or HL10=00) and (HL11=2 or HL12=00).
  • ** MICS indicator 75: Children for whom one or both biological parents are dead (HL9=2 or HL11=2).
  • The denominator in this table is children age 0-17 years enumerated in the household listing.
children without parental care the case of burundi
Children without parental care:the case of Burundi

Percentage of children aged 0-15 who are:

MICS 2006

slide20

Research into determinants of vulnerability (AkwaraP. et al., AIDS Care, 2010)

  • Are orphans more likely to have worse outcomes than non-orphans?
  • Outcomes: wasting, school attendance, early sexual debut
  • Are children living in households with chronically ill or HIV positive adults more likely to have worse outcomes than those who don’t?
  • Aside from orphaning, chronic illness or HIV positive adults in household, what other factors are associated with poor child outcomes?
main findings
Main findings
  • Orphans more likely to experience poorer outcomes (with statistically significant differences) in:

5/35 countries for stunting

38/59 countries for school attendance

0/17 for early sexual debut for males; 7/23 for females

  • However, orphanhood is not a predictor of certain well-being outcomes, even in countries with high HIV prevalence
  • Other factors are more frequently associated with poor outcomes
    • Household wealth, in many instances associated with wasting and school attendance
    • Education of adult household members significantly associated with school attendance
main challenges
Main challenges

Street children

Main challenges: Lack of agreed operational definitions and criteria for the identification of street children, intelligence gap and sampling issues

Children living in institutions

Main challenges: Many institutions are unregistered, and many countries do not regularly collect and report data on children in institutional care

methodological work
Methodological work
  • Development of manual for the measurement of indicators for children in formal care (UNICEF & Better Care Network, 2009)
  • Development and testing of a methodology (sampling technique and questionnaire) to collect data on children in institutions and street children (2007)
  • Child Protection Monitoring and Evaluation reference Group (CP MERG)

Confirmed members: UNICEF, Save the Children, ILO, UNFPA, USAID (PL 109-95 Secretariat, DCOF), World Vision International, Oak Foundation, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation

Four work priorities for the first biennium, including collation and assessment of methods to calculate estimates of children out of home care and the quality of the care provided (led by Bill Bell and Sarah Lilley/Save the Children)

thank you
Thank you

Acknowledgements:

Priscilla Akwara and Danielle Burke, UNICEF NY

John Stover, Futures Institute