What’s happening? “Climate change is the greatest challenge of our time” Mary Robinson, Honorary President Oxfam International
Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and global average temperatures The Science
The Urgency Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than even worst case scenarios
Historic responsibility for climate change lies with richer industrialised countries. USA: 24 tonnes per person Ireland 17 tonnes per person Who’s responsible?
Those living in poverty Least responsible for the problem Least able to cope Who is suffering already?
Melting glaciers and ice-caps Rising sea levels Heavier rains More frequent droughts Impacts
Climate change in not just an environmental issue…. It is a human rights issue It is a development issue It is a justice issue
250 MILLION PEOPLE are now affected by natural disasters each year - up from an average of 174 million two decades ago 150,000 PEOPLE DIE A YEAR due to climate change BY 2050, 30 MILLION MORE PEOPLE MAY GO HUNGRY because of climate change 185 MILLION PEOPLE in Sub-Saharan Africa could die due to disease directly attributable to climate change Climate Change Facts
UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol National Actions e.g. UK Climate Act Irish Climate Bill? What’s being done about it?
Who was there? What was it about? What went wrong? Outcomes What must come next? Copenhagen
Approx 190 governments 119 world leaders inc. Obama, Wen Jiabao etc Technocrats UN agencies Civil society – trade unions, environmental, development NGOs Business Who was there?
Taoiseach Minister for the Environment Minister for Energy Department of Env, Finance, Ag, DFA, Irish Aid, EPA. Politicians NGOs Media From Ireland
How to tackle climate change after 2012 What limit on climate change What greenhouse gas emissions cuts What finance to deal with climate change Should have been a Fair, Adequate, and Binding deal. What was it about
A lot to do Problems with process, lack of transparency and breakdown of trust Flood of texts and negotiations based on entrenched positions Chaos and near collapse in High Level segment What went wrong in Copenhagen?
Summary Totally inadequate to protect the lives and livelihoods of poor people vulnerable to climate change Product of an untransparent & distrusted process The Copenhagen Accord • A snapshot of current global political will. Key is relationship to Bali Action Plan mandate.
Pledges of emissions cuts by rich countries – but the same ones they’d made before Fast Start Financing - $30bn over 3 years Long Term Financing - $100bn p.a. from 2013 Agreement to continue negotiating Aim of 2 degrees Celsius Copenhagen outcomes
Uncertainty over future deal. Legally binding outcome? Replacement of UNFCCC by alternative fora (G20?) Mitigation pledges made by 31 Jan likely to mean 4°C global warming Locks-in low ambition Locks-in bottom-up approach Meaning….
Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to <2ºC trajectory (450ppm) Low end of pledged ranges High end of pledged ranges
Represented through EU Little to add Fast start financing €100m over 3 years Ireland at Copenhagen
Return to UN UN intercessional in June COP Mexico Nov/Dec ’10 Build political will and process to succeed Where now?