A UNIFIED EARTH THEORY: COMBINING SOLUTIONS TO EXTREME POVERTY AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS

1. A UNIFIED EARTH THEORY: COMBINING SOLUTIONS TO EXTREME POVERTY AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS CLIMATE CRISIS: GROWTH AND GOOD GOVERNANCE TO AMELIORATE POVERTY ANIL KUMAR VENKAT EPUR Past Chairman, CII – Southern Region & Chairman, WWF – India, Andhra Pradesh 7 September 2014 - 1 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

2. A UNIFIED EARTH THEORY: COMBINING SOLUTIONS TO EXTREME POVERTY AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS Presentation to Company Name

3. A UNIFIED EARTH THEORY: COMBINING SOLUTIONS TO EXTREME POVERTY AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS The developing world needs to stop viewing climate change solely as an environmental issue, and begin approaching it as a development concern. Our changing climate is a result of unsustainable development practices. And it is a serious threat to human progress everywhere. Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General 7 September 2014 - 3 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

4. MDG Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1a: Reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than a dollar and 25 cents a day by 2015 Effects of Climate Change on the poor: Climate Change may reduce poor people’s livelihood assets for example health, access to water, homes and infrastructure. It may also alter the path and rate of economic growth due to changes in natural systems and resources, infrastructure and labour productivity. A reduction in economic growth directly impacts the poor through reduced income opportunities. 7 September 2014 - 4 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

5. Little scientific “doubt” about the emergence of climate change as an important risk----- well known to all 7 September 2014 - 5 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

6. Better to be SAFE THAN SORRY • Better have taken mitigating steps rather than deny the • effects of Climate Change now and maybe face • the consequences later on. • Climate change is happening and will increasingly affect the poor • Adaptation is necessary and there is a need to integrate responses to climate change and adaptation measures into strategies for poverty reduction to ensure sustainable development. 7 September 2014 - 6 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

7. Poverty-related climate change impacts include: • Reductions in crop yields in most tropical and subtropical regions • Falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% • Marine life and the fishing industry will be severely affected in some places;  • • Such changes would have a major impact on food security, employment, incomes and economic growth; • Huge displacement of people from coastal and densely populated low-lying areas • Exposure of millions of people to new health risks, 7 September 2014 - 7 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

8. Climate Change and Extreme Poverty: the unholy nexus • Poverty impacts tend to ignore the effect of aggregate economic growth on poverty and household welfare • Empirical evidence available to date suggests that climate change will slow the pace of global poverty reduction • Impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are generally a poor predictor of the poverty impacts of climate change at the national level • Impacts of climate change are generally regressive, that is, they fall more heavily on the poor than the rich 7 September 2014 - 8 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

9. However high growth partially ameliorates • All societies and economies have developed mechanisms to cope with climate extremes and other natural hazards, which they face occasionally • Trade, migration, or precautionary storage of food are examples of strategies to cope with adverse climatic conditions • Capacity to cope with climate variability and extreme weather events in itself is highly dependent on the level of economic development • Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrower and more climate-sensitive than those of the non-poor • Extreme weather events, which would cause limited damage and few casualties in a developed country, often cause extensive damage and substantial loss of life in a developing country 7 September 2014 - 9 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

10. Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed • A “Mitigation Only” won’t work because it’s already too late to avoid substantial climate change • An “Adaptation Only” strategy won’t work because most adaptation measures become more costly and less effective as the magnitude of the changes to which one is trying to adapt gets larger. 7 September 2014 - 10 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

11. Mitigation Strategies are well known: Strengthening Adaptation Efforts are required Improved governance - active and responsible civil society and open, transparent, and accountable policy and decision making processes First steps towards mainstreaming climate issues into all national, sub-national, and sectoral planning processes Encouraging a ministry with a broad mandate Combining approaches at the government and institutional level with bottom-up approaches rooted in regional, national, and local knowledge and requirements Empowerment of communities Vulnerability assessments Access to good quality information about the impacts of climate change like Early warning systems Integration of impacts into macroeconomic projections 7 September 2014 - 11 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

12. Impact of growth and good governance • The impacts of climate change on agricultural yields may actually be a rather poor predictor of the poverty impacts of climate change • Mediating factors that can mitigate the impacts on the level of household welfare, includes: ability to migrate or switch employment between agricultural and non-agricultural occupations, the extent of policy induced adaptation through prices and explicit government programs, such as providing access to housing, health care, employment, training and education, credit and insurance • Distribution of productive endowments (irrigated and non-irrigated land, skilled and unskilled labour), and the dual role of rural households as consumers and producers of food -and whether they are net consumers or producers- will determine how the impacts are distributed among the population • Economic growth, often absent in the discussion of future impacts of a warming world, will have a tremendous ameliorating effect through the decrease of the food expenditure share on total expenditure, and the reduction of the relative weight of agriculture in national GDP Contd 7 September 2014 - 12 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

13. Predicted poverty rates in India with climate change Source: Jacoby, Rabassa, and Skoufias (2011), World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5622 Notes: Annual growth rates in mean consumption derived from several NSS rounds are drawn from Datt and Ravallion (2011). Low growth refers to 1958-199. Medium growth rates to 1991-2006. High Growth simply doubles the growth rates under the medium growth rate scenario. For example, climate change may have a negative effect on agricultural productivity and also affect poor people’s livelihood through its effects on health, access to water and natural resources, and infrastructure. 7 September 2014 - 13 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

14. GOVERNANCE- A paradigm shift essential • LOVE THE POOR- NOT POVERTY ---- ENSURE A BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE • Do not impose one’s opinion on the poor- ask them. They may surprise you with what they want • Shift development strategies from competitive subsidies to investment in technologies, R & D, education and physical infrastructure • Encourage shift in gainful employment- divert from over dependence on land and water, especially in threatened zones • Encourage labour intensive manufacturing for at least one generation- facilitate by modifying laws on land use, labour, industrial development etc. • Promote “Semi-Rural Urbanisation’ to facilitate better resource delivery and use and employment in industry and services. 7 September 2014 - 14 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012

15. CHANGEOR THE CLIMATE WILL……! 7 September 2014 - 15 CII – PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT 2012