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The Greenland Physics Problem. Diego Klabjan & Yue Geng Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University. Agenda. Project overview Model developed Current study Issues Next steps. Project Overview. Scope Deliverables Milestones. Scope.

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the greenland physics problem

The Greenland Physics Problem

Diego Klabjan & YueGeng

Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences

Northwestern University

agenda
Agenda
  • Project overview
  • Model developed
  • Current study
  • Issues
  • Next steps
project overview
Project Overview

Scope

Deliverables

Milestones

scope
Scope
  • Assess long term economical viability of Summit
    • Supporting transportation logistics needs
    • Operational considerations at Summit
      • Energy requirements
  • Environmental impact
    • Emissions from transportation
    • Renewable on-site generation
capture uncertainties
Capture Uncertainties
  • Future research needs at Summit
  • Logistics costs
    • Fuel
  • Availability of transportation modes
    • Traverse
    • Commercial access
deliverables
Deliverables
  • A tool to analyze scenarios
    • Cost
    • Emissions
    • Other KPIs
  • Given a possible scenario
    • Determine by means of optimization logistics requirements and expenses
    • Trade-off between cost and emissions
model
Model

Data

Model

Assumptions

completed work data
Completed Work: Data
  • Obtained prior year operational and logistics data
    • Vehicle availability
      • LC-130
      • Vessels
    • Shipments in past years
    • Personnel activity
      • Aggregated level
    • Daily fuel consumption
completed work model
Completed Work: Model
  • Given
    • Shipping requirements
      • Availability and delivery dates
    • Available transportation resources (vehicles)
    • Fuel requirements at Summit
  • Determine
    • Date of vehicle sent
    • Goods transported by each vehicle
slide11

Time (Days/Weeks)

LC-130 from Scotia on day 8 arrive Kanger on day 9

Inventory

left from previous day

Vessel from VA Beach on day 2 arriving to Kanger on day 32

Time window for shipment A at origin

Shipment A

Location in the US

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

31

32

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

31

32

Kanger

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

31

32

Summit

Time window for shipment A at destination

Locations

Aggregate by week

Shipment A

validation calibration
Validation/Calibration
  • Representative data from 2005-2009
    • Data from 2008 most complete
    • Includes all shipments
      • No description, but weight and volume
    • Limited vessel data
    • Personnel data at aggregated level
      • Batches arriving and leaving Summit
assumptions
Assumptions
  • Final destinations at various locations
    • Can arbitrarily be consolidated
  • Four vehicle types considered
    • LC-130, LC-5, Twin Otter, and vessels
  • Reverse logistics not considered
    • Our task
  • No volume constraints
  • Feasibility of vehicles ‘guessed’
assumptions1
Assumptions
  • Fuel required only due to personnel
  • Aggregation level of shipments
    • Fuel
    • Personnel
    • Can be transported by vessel or aircraft
    • Everything else
  • Lead time of 30 days for vessel
study
Study

Results

Data Issues

slide16

2008 Snapshot

  • PRIMARY NODES
  • Kangerlussuaq
  • Summit Station
  • Thule Air Base
  • Remote Sites…

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 6

Number of vessels to Thule: 2

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 22

Field

Number of vessels to Kanger: 2

Number of flights to Kanger: 23

slide17

Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels

January to March

Flights to other locations:

None

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 1

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 5

slide18

Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels

April to June

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 3

Thule to Ilulissat 3

Thule to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 7

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 7

slide19

Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels

July to September

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 1

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3

Field

Number of vessels to Kanger: 4

Number of flights to Kanger: 4

slide20

Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels

October to December

No shipments

Currently not considering traverse

Field

Field

slide21

Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels

Year 08 Total

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 4

Thule to Ilulissat 3

Thule to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 9

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 5

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 12

Field

Number of vessels to Kanger: 4

Number of flights to Kanger: 16

slide22

Minimize Only No. Vehicles

January to March

Flights to other locations:

None

Field

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 1

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 1

slide23

Minimize Only No. Vehicles

April to June

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 2

Thule to Ilulissat 2

Kanger to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 6

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 10

slide24

Minimize Only No. of Vehicles

July to September

Flights to other locations:

Thule to Ilulissat 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 2

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 8

slide25

Minimize Only No. of Vehicles

October to December

No shipments

Field

Field

slide26

Minimize Only No. of Vehicles

Year 08 Total

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 2

Thule to Ilulissat 3

Kanger to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 8

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 7

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 19 (LC-5)

slide27

Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels

January to March

Flights to other locations:

None

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 2

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 2

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 2

slide28

Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels

April to June

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 2

Thule to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 8

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6

Field

Number of flights to Kanger: 9

slide29

Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels

July to September

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 1

Field

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7

Field

Number of vessels to Kanger: 4

Number of flights to Kanger: 5

slide30

Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels

October to December

No shipments

Field

Field

slide31

Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels

Year 08 Total

Flights to other locations:

Kanger to Ilulissat 3

Thule to Swiss Camp 1

Field

Number of flights to Thule: 10

Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3

Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 16

Field

Number of vessels to Kanger: 4

Number of flights to Kanger: 16

front end interface
Front-end Interface
  • Future expositions in Google Maps
    • Already implemented them
      • Manually feeding a solution
    • Need to integrate with the analytics module
  • Do not have access to a GIS system
missing or incomplete data
Missing or Incomplete Data
  • Operating cost of LC-5 and LC-130
  • Payload of vessels
  • Equipment that requires fuel consumption at Summit
  • Block time between various locations
  • Baseload daily fuel consumption at Summit
  • Fuel consumption per person
missing or incomplete data1
Missing or Incomplete Data
  • Special requirements for shipments on particular vehicles
    • Large equipment can be transported only on particular vehicles
  • What is the flexibility in terms of the shipment and delivery dates
  • Flight information available only for Scotia to Summit via Kanger
    • Need for other locations
issues and next steps
Issues and Next Steps

Issues

Next steps

high level understanding of the model
High Level Understanding of the Model
  • Available vehicles/modes of transportation
  • Shipping requirements
    • Time based (shipping and delivery windows)
    • Weight and volume
  • Special attention to fuel
  • Aggregation from day to week or month
open items
Open Items
  • Is the delivery date in CST reliable?
  • Use of traverse in the future
  • CST considers many additional locations
  • Transport of fuel and its use at Summit
  • More granular personnel data
    • Their flexibility
    • Duration of stay
immediate actions
Immediate Actions
  • Settle data issues and requirements
  • Incorporate reverse logistics
    • Adjust the model
    • Gather data
  • Capture emissions
    • From transportation
    • From operations at Summit
      • As a function of fuel and landings/take-offs
perpetual efforts
Perpetual Efforts
  • Modeling future scenarios
    • How to estimate future shipments?
      • Not just volume, but also their timing
    • How many personnel in the future?
      • Can we anticipate the per month requirement?
      • Hard to forecast due to limited historical data
  • Availability of future modes of transportation
    • Is it going to be the same old story?
perpetual efforts1
Perpetual Efforts
  • Incorporate KPI
    • Pounds of cargo moved (O-D)
    • Number of personnel moved (O-D)
    • Hourly airlift costs
    • Ship costs per pound
    • Volume of fuel consumed for flights and infrastructure
    • Annual researcher days supported
    • Energy consumption at Summit
perpetual efforts2
Perpetual Efforts
  • Incorporate traverse
    • Handle it as what-if
      • With or without it
    • Have cost-benefit analyses
  • How to model a possible engineering/technological break through?
suggestions
Suggestions
  • Go-to person at NSF
    • Anticipated needs of Summit
    • Understanding of NSF’s mission
  • Someone from CPS besides Sandy?
morals
Morals
  • Garbage in, garbage out!
  • If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it!
  • The study will be as good as the data available
  • We must all be comfortable in all of the assumptions

and the team members!

acknowledgments
Acknowledgments
  • Indispensible help from

Sandy Starkweather

Support Manager

CPS

Mike Dover

Project Developer

Critigen

Jay Burnside

a.k.a. Traverse Guru

acknowledgments1
Acknowledgments
  • Without them we would not be sitting here

Pat Haggerty

Renee D. Crain

Simon N. Stephenson