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The Future of Extreme Weather

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  1. The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. http://www.wunderground.com

  2. Education: University of Michigan B.S. in Meteorology, 1982 M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis:“A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol” Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones” Me

  3. Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990 Publications: • Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft • A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert • Wind Measurement From Aircraft • Flying Into the Eye of a Hurricane • Meteorology at Brockport

  4. My Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp

  5. Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?

  6. Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time *Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

  7. Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). • Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C. • Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%. • Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%. • Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.

  8. The U.S coast is very vulnerable to sea level rise

  9. Sea level rise will lead to increased storm surge damage • 1910-1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year. • Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. • No increases in storm intensity or frequency that • might account for the increasing high water levels. • Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997)

  10. Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?

  11. Borden and Cutter, 2008

  12. 2010: A Year of Incredible Weather Events Hurricane Igor as seen from the International Space Station

  13. Coldest January-February in Florida since at least 1937

  14. January 2010: Strongest winter storm on record wallops Southwest U.S.

  15. Snowmaggedon: February 2010 41 killed, $2.4 billion damage

  16. Winter Storm Xynthia 63 killed, $3 billion damage

  17. Brazilian Tropical Storm Anita

  18. Warmest and wettest March in Rhode Island history

  19. Rio de Janeiro floods, April 2010 246 killed, $14 billion damage

  20. May 2010 Tennessee floods 31 killed, $1.5 billion damage

  21. Cyclone Phet: 2nd strongest ever in Arabian Sea 44 killed, $ 0.8 billion damage

  22. Tropical Storm Agatha hits Guatemala 317 killed, $1.1 billion damage

  23. China summer floods and landslides 4245 killed, $51 billion damage

  24. Monsoon floods cause worst natural disaster in Pakistan’s history; 1780 killed, $43 billion damage

  25. Russian heat wave and drought 15,800 killed, $15 billion damage

  26. Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland’s worst hurricane in memory 4 killed, $ 0.2 billion damage

  27. Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of Campeche 22 killed, $5.6 billion damage

  28. Cyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Myanmar 157 killed, $ 0.4 billion damage

  29. Super Typhoon Megi: 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history 69 killed, $ 0.7 billion damage

  30. October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone: Strongest non-coastal storm in U.S. history

  31. Hurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far south 41 killed, $ 0.6 billion damage

  32. Floods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s history 300+ dead, $5 billion damage

  33. Queensland, Australia floods 20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage

  34. January 2011: Rio de Janeiro flood Deadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s history 900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage

  35. January 2011: 100-year flood in Sri Lanka 43 killed, $0.5 billion damage

  36. 2010: A year of remarkable climate events Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3rd lowest on record

  37. 2010: Earth’s warmest year in history

  38. 2010: Earth’s wettest year in history

  39. Snow covers the U.K., January 7, 2010 Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillation pattern in the 145-year record leads to severe winter in Europe and Eastern U.S., but Canada’s warmest and driest winter ever

  40. A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year

  41. Amazon’s 2nd 100-year drought in 5 years

  42. 2010: Greenland’s warmest year in history

  43. Greenland’s Petermann Glacier calves 100-square mile ice island

  44. Is the weather getting more extreme?