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On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries . Possessing natural resources makes things worse, unless there are plenty of them.

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key findings of collier hoeffler
On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998)

Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries.

Possessing natural resources makes things worse, unless there are plenty of them.

Countries with larger populationshave higher risks of war and these wars last longer: greater attraction of secession.

BUT: it is not ethno-linguistic fractionalisation as such which is damaging to societies but that degree of fractionalisationwhich most facilitates rebel coordination.

Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler
key findings of collier hoeffler greed and grievance in civil war 2001
Key Findings of Collier & HoefflerGreed and Grievance in Civil War (2001)
  • All three grievance models have very low explanatory power
  • Opportunity as an explanation of conflict risk is consistent with the economic interpretation of rebellion as greed-motivated
    • Primary commodity exports
    • Foregone earnings
    • Cost of conflict-specific capital
    • Low density, low urbanisation
    • Large diaspora
  • Other significant variables:
    • Ethnic dominance
    • Democracy
    • “Time heals”
key revisions by ballentine
Key Revisions by Ballentine
  • Varied impact of economic factors on:
    • Incidence of conflicts
    • Duration of conflicts
    • Intensity of conflicts
  • Economic factors matter, but quite possibly in different ways and to differing degrees  alternative explanations for Collier and Hoeffler’s findings