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Demand Response in the Council’s 6 th Power Plan. Ken Corum DR Consultation April 8, 2009. Topics for Today. How does Council evaluate resources? What’s different in the 6 th Plan for DR? Where did our DR assumptions come from? Action plan Comments & suggestions. Electricity Demand.

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Demand Response in the Council’s 6 th Power Plan


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demand response in the council s 6 th power plan

Demand Response in the Council’s 6th Power Plan

Ken Corum

DR Consultation

April 8, 2009

topics for today
Topics for Today
  • How does Council evaluate resources?
  • What’s different in the 6th Plan for DR?
  • Where did our DR assumptions come from?
  • Action plan
  • Comments & suggestions

2

council s power planning process

ElectricityDemand

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Irrigation

Council’s Power Planning Process

Economic &

Demographic

Forecasts

Fuel Price

Forecast

Electricity

Price and

Conservation

Levels

Efficiency Levels

and Improvement

Costs

Supply - Demand Balance

Resource Portfolio

Generating

Resources and

Costs

Resource Alternatives

(Amount Available and Cost)

3

council s portfolio model
Council’s Portfolio Model
  • Simulates risk as well as cost of portfolios
  • 3000-8000 portfolios analyzed
  • Resources include SCCT, CCCT, conventional and advanced coal, wind, conservation, DR
  • Uncertainties translated into 750 futures (20 years)
    • NG and electricity prices, loads, water, CO2, aluminum, outages

4

council s portfolio model1
Council’s Portfolio Model
  • Each portfolio => 750 NPVs of costs
    • distribution w/ expected value, TailVar90

5

changes for 6 th plan 1
Changes for 6th Plan - 1
  • “Conventional” DR – peak capacity
  • More programs, different cost structures
    • Demand buyback low FC, high VC (~$5/kW-yr, >$150/MWh)
    • AC, IRR programs are generally all fixed costs, ~$60-80/kW-yr

8

changes for the 6 th plan 2
Changes for the 6th Plan - 2
  • New importance of flexibility resources (ancillary services)
  • Some DR can provide ancillary services
    • Controllable up and down
    • Frequent use – many hours in year
  • Portfolio model doesn’t capture this value

9

action plan 1
Action Plan - 1
  • RD&D pilots
    • Research pilots
      • “risky” ideas
      • crucial info, not stand-alone cost effectiveness
      • e.g. ancillary services, firming non firm
    • Development and demonstration pilots
      • acquisition strategies for more proven alternatives
      • PGE proposal for WH program w/ stimulus money

12

action plan 2
Action Plan - 2
  • Pricing Structures (PNDRP)
  • Monitor events elsewhere
  • Monitor technology (e.g. smart grid)
  • Support appliance standards to enable DR

13