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GODAE Ocean View 1st Steering Team meeting. Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team (MEAP-TT). P. Brasseur (CNRS/LEGI, FR) and N. Gruber (ETH, CH), co-chairs. In this report: The joint IMBER-GODAE initiative for ecosystem modelling

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slide1

GODAE Ocean View 1st Steering Team meeting

Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team

(MEAP-TT)

P. Brasseur (CNRS/LEGI, FR) and N. Gruber (ETH, CH), co-chairs

In this report:

  • The joint IMBER-GODAE initiative for ecosystem modelling
  • 2007 workshop conclusions and recommendations from IGST
  • Task Team: objectives and membership
  • Actions and furure plan

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide2

The GODAE – IMBER initiative for ecosystem modelling

The IMBER vision is to provide a comprehensive understanding of, and accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society.

The goal is “to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global change, on time scales ranging from years to decades”.

At thefirst GODAE-IMBER meeting at CNRS (12-13 June 2007) a new working group was formed to facilitate dialogue between those developing new ecosystem models and the developers of the operational systems.

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide3

Joint GODAE-IMBER workshop, June 2007

Main outcomes and response from IGST

Focus on 3 key areas

  • How IMBER modellers can benefit from the products and insight generated by GODAE ?
    • IGST encouraged IMBER to plan offline experiments with GODAE physical ocean state estimates (reanalysis)
  • How GODAE products can be improved from the particular perspective of IMBER modellers ?
    • IGST recognized the critical importance of vertical processes (advection, diffusion) for many situations of IMBER interest, and suggested investigations into these vertical processes with systems already coupled
  • How ocean observing systems can be designed and improved to better observed ocean ecosystem and biogeochemistry ?
    • IGST recommanded not to make this area a too high priority (GODAE not the relevant political leverage to move these issues forward)

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide4

GODAE-IMBER working group

Membership

Name Institution

Patrick Monfray* CNRS, France

Rahgu Murtugudde* ESSIC/UMD, US

Fei Chai* University of Maine, US

Tony Lee NASA / JPL, US

Naoki Yoshie* Fisheries Res. Agency, Japan

Hiromichi Igarashi JAMSTEC, Japan

Yoichi Ishikawa Kyoto University

Toshiyuki Awaji Kyoto University

Richard Matear CSIRO Marine & Atm Res

Rosa Barciela Met Office, UK

Kirsten Wilmer-Becker** Met Office, UK

Pierre Brasseur CNRS, France

Eric Greiner Mercator-ocean, France

Keith Brander* ICES

Nicolas Gruber*(excused) ETH Zürich, CH

* invited by IMBER, others by GODAE

** assuming the secretariat of the meeting

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide5

GODAE-IMBER Working Group

« activities » in 2008

  • No formal meeting of the working group since June 2007, no feedback from IGST discussed by the WG;
  • Patrick Monfray (CNRS) stepped down as IGST member, Nicolas Gruber in charge of the working group;
  • The WG synthesized its key findings in the GODAE paper on ecosystems (Brasseur et al. 2008);
  • Discussions about the integration of new biogeochemical models into GODAE systems (GODAE final symposium);
  • GODAE symposium report published by Nicolas Gruber in IMBER Update newsletter n°12;
  • Input to white paper about the future of GODAE (Le Traon et al., 2008)
  • Proposal for a new “GODAE” Task Team on Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction;
  • Pierre Brasseur in charge of leading this Task Team since march 2009

Lack of continuity in the leadership of this group in 2008

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide6

Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems

By Pierre Brasseur, Nicolas Gruber, Rosa Barciela, Keith Brander, Maeva Doron, Abdelali El Moussaoui, Alistair J. Hobday, Martin Huret, Anne-Sophie Kremeur, Patrick Lehodey, Cyril Moulin, Ragu Murtugudde, Inna Senina, Einar Svendsen, Richard Matear

(Oceanography, accepted).

Areas of benefit : 4 main application categories

  • Phytoplankton biomass estimation in the open ocean
  • Monitoring ocean carbon uptake and CO2 air/sea exchange
  • Marine ecosystem management (fisheries) at seasonal and longer-term time scales
  • Regional downscaling and coastal applications

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide7

Biogeochemical model (Frenzel et al., 2004)

Predation mortality applied to plankton

Starvation mortality

Food availability

(x,y,z,t)

Growth

Forage and predation

Fishing mortality

Natural mortality

Plankton as a prey for fish

Physical ocean information input: high-resolution and synopticity

GODAE systems

Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide8

Air-sea CO2 fluxes from the inversion of ocean interior carbon data

Data: unperturbed CO2

Data: anthropogenic CO2

∆Cgasex = DIC - rC:P PO43- - 1/2 (Alk + rN:P PO43-) - Cant

Following Gruber and Sarmiento (2002)

Cant : estimated on the basis of the ∆C* method

of Gruber et al. (1996)

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide9

PP

E

En’

1

2

3

5

6

surface

4

Epipelagic layer

Mesopelagic layer

day

Bathypelagic layer

sunset, sunrise

night

Integration of mid-trophic level (prey) dynamics to predict the behaviour of large oceanic predators

Predicted distribution of daytime epipelagic micronekton biomass by SEAPODYM (Lehodey et al., 2008)

Primary production derived from satellite (Behrenfeld et al., 2006)

SEAPODYM: 6 functional groups in 3 vertical layers

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide10

Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction:

Objectives (from Le Traon et al., 2008)

  • to foster research on ecosystem modeling and assimilation strategies in the framework of of operational systems;

(ii) to further assess and demonstrate the value of operational products for marine ecosystem monitoring and prediction;

(iii) to expand the concept of the “GODAE metrics” to biogeochemical variables and to develop intercomparison exercises across international groups;

(iv) to identify the essential sets of physical and biogeochemical observations required to constrain the coupled models and formulate relevant recommendations on these issues;

(v) to promote and organize educational activities (summer schools, training workshops, etc.) aimed at sharing experience between young scientists, operational oceanographers and marine ecosystem experts.

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

actions and future plan
Actions and future plan
  • IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ?
  • TT membership to be clarified (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?);
  • Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC;

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide12

GODAE-IMBER Working Group

Initial plan

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

actions and future plan1
Actions and future plan
  • IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ?
  • TT membership to be reconsidered (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + experts, interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?);
  • Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC;
  • Organize a workshop early next year (AGU ?) to review the progress made since 2007 and to develop a more structured framework of activities until 2013 (« bottom-up » approach needed to build a realistic workplan);
  • Develop a proposal for a summer school in liaison with IMBER and/or SOLAS

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide14
Questions ?

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide15

1993

1992

1994

1995

1998

1999

1996

1997

2000

2001

North Atlantic demonstration

Annual chlorophyll over 1992-2001 using

MERCATOR re-analysis (MERA-11) and LOBSTER

First demonstration of interannual reanalysis of the biogeochemical state of the ocean

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide16

Log(chl) from model with no biological assimilation

Log(chl) from model with

biological assimilation

Ocean Colour Data Assimilation

Log(chl) observations

Real world experiments – on 1st July 2003

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

september 16 2008

Fisheries management with environmental data

September 16, 2008

Examples of maps distributed online to stakeholders

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

slide18

AlgaRisk08 project integrates EO with operational model (POLCOMS-ERSEM)

  • Daily analysis & 5 day forecast.
  • Parameters provided:
    • physical:

SST, salinity, stratification, currents, PAR, wind, cloud cover.

    • biogeochemical:

phytoplankton biomass, flagellates, dinoflagellates, picoplankton, nutrient ratios.

  • Predictive tool used by Environment Agency to assess prediction of nuisance bloom events on beaches

Boundary conditions from FOAM

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France