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Presentation Transcript

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Forecasting

  • It is the process of estimating the future trends by examining and analysing the available information.

  • Attempt to quantify demand in the future time period


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Purpose of Forecasting

  • Planning tool which helps to cope up with uncertainties in the future.

  • Short term forecast – Competitive situation, equipment needs

  • Medium term forecast – Route planning decisions

  • Long term forecast – Fleet Planning and Financial commitments


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Forecasting Techniques

  • Casual Methods

  • Time Series or Trend Projection

  • Moving average method

  • Delphi technique

  • Regression analysis

  • Exponential smoothing technique




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Advantages of forecasting

  • Helps to prepare for the future

  • Less time consuming

  • Economical for the company

  • Adjust the supply according to the future demand


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Passenger Capacity

  • Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) measure an airline’s passenger carrying capacity.

  • ASKs is defined as the product of the numbers of seats available and the distance flown by those seats.

  • ASKs : No. of seats * Distance flown


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RPKs

  • Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) : It is defined as the product of revenue passengers carried and the distance flown by them.

  • RPKs : Revenue Passengers * Distance travelled


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Load Factor

  • Load Factor is defined as the ratio of RPKs to ASKs

  • Load Factor : RPKs/ASKs




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