Designing Studies

1. Designing Studies Section 4.1A

2. Statistical Studies • National Hwy Traffic Safety Administration reports that seat belt use in passenger vehicles increased from 83% to 84% in 2009. • A recent survey found that US teens (13-18) spend an average of 26.8 hours per week online. Although 59% of the teens said that posting personal information or photos online is unsafe, 62% said they had posted photos of themselves. • A recent study found that lack of sleep increases the risk of catching a cold. • Two AP students found that listening to music while studying decreased the subject’s performance on a memory task.

3. Using Samples… • The NHTSA conducts an observational study each year of seat belt use….they have trained observers record the actual behavior of people in vehicles at randomly selected sites across the country. • The Internet survey used a “representative sample” of 655 teens (13-18). • In the sleep study, 153 volunteers answered questions about their sleep habits over a 2-wk period. They were then given a virus and waited to see who developed a cold. This is a complicated observational study. • The AP students recruited 30 students and divided them into 2 groups of 15 by drawing names from a hat. Students in one group tried to memorize a list of words while listening to music and the other did as well but with no music.

4. Activity: See no evil, hear no evil? Follow the directions on Page 206 Turn in your results to your teacher. Teacher: Right-click (control-click) on the graphs to edit the counts. Sampling and Surveys

5. Population • It represents the entire group of individuals about which we want information. • Census – survey of the population

6. Sample • Part of the population from which we actually collect the information. • Used to draw conclusions about the population Population Collect data from a representative Sample... Sample Make an Inference about the Population.

7. Identify the population & the sample: • A furniture maker buys hardwood in large batches. The supplier is supposed to dry the wood before shipping (to keep it’s size and shape). The furniture maker chooses five pieces of wood from each batch and tests their moisture content. If any piece exceeds 12% moisture content, the entire batch is sent back.

8. Identify the population & the sample: • Each week, the Gallup Poll questions a sample of about 1500 adult U. S. residents to determine national opinion on a wide variety of issues.

9. Sample Survey We often draw conclusions about a whole population on the basis of a sample. Choosing a sample from a large, varied population is not that easy.

10. Choose a sample Survey • Define the population we want to describe. • Say exactly what we want to measure. *A “sample survey” is a study that uses an organized plan to choose a sample that represents some specific population • Decide how to choose a sample from the population

11. Current Population Survey • Contacts 60,000 households each month • Produces monthly unemployment rate and a lot of other economic and social information • Population is defined as all U.S. residents (legal or not) 16 years of age and over who are civilians and are not in an institution such as prison. • Unemployed – if you are available for work and if you actually looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

12. Bad Sampling…. • Sample that does not represent the population. • Latest polls in Florida

13. Convenience Sampling • Choosing individuals who are easiest to reach. • Example: Questioning the 1st 100 people to come to the store • Example: Mall interview • What problems can you see?

14. Voluntary Response Sample • Consists of people who choose themselves by responding to a general appeal. • Those most likely to respond are the people with strong opinions, especially negative opinions. • Television call in polls

15. Example • The American Family Association (AFA) is a conservative group that stands for “traditional family values. It had a poll on its Web site – about same sex marriage in 2004. They had 60% of 850,000 people responded that they favored same-sex marriage. This did not support AFA’s position. What do you think happened?

16. What type of Sampling • A farmer brings a juice company several crates of oranges each week. A company inspector looks at 10 oranges from the top of each crate before deciding whether to buy all the oranges.

17. What type of Sampling • The ABC program Nightline once asked whether the United Nations should continue to have its headquarters in the United States. Viewers were invited to call one telephone number to respond “Yes” and another for “No”. There was a charge for calling either number. More than 186,000 callers responded and 67% said “No”.

18. Activity #2 - Rectangles • I want to know the average size of the rectangles on this page. • Pick 5 rectangles that you believe are representative of all of the on the page. • Find the area of each of the 5 you chose. • Find the average area of all 5

19. Bias The sampling method is biased if it systematically favors certain outcomes. Exam Tip: Always tell which way it is biased.

20. Selection Bias • The method of selecting the sample systematically excludes some part of the population of interest. • Example – the rectangles lab voluntary response

21. Measurement / Response • Method of observation tends to produce values that systematically differ from the true value in some way. • Measurement – improperly calibrated scale, the string activity • Response – Improperly worded questions

22. Nonresponse bias • Responses are not actually obtained from all individuals selected for inclusion in the sample. • Example – Failure to return polls

23. What type of Bias • Bill is assigned by his editor to determine what most Americans think about a new law that will place a federal tax on all modems and computers purchased. The revenues from the tax will be used to enforce new online decency laws. Bill, being technically inclined, decides to use an email poll. In his poll, 95% of those surveyed opposed the tax. Bill was quite surprised when 65% of all Americans voted for the taxes.

24. What type of Bias • The United Pacifists of America decide to run a poll to determine what Americans think about guns and gun control. Jane is assigned the task of setting up the study. To save mailing costs, she includes the survey form in the group's newsletter mailing. She is very pleased to find out that 95% of those surveyed favor gun control laws and she tells her friends that the vast majority of Americans favor gun control laws.

25. What type of Bias • Large scale polls were taken in Florida, California, and Maine and it was found that an average of 55% of those polled spent at least fourteen days a year near the ocean. So, it can be safely concluded that 55% of all Americans spend at least fourteen days near the ocean each year

27. Simple Random Sample. • Good sampling technique. • A simple random sample (SRS) of size n consists of n individuals from the population chosen in such a way that every set of n individuals has an equal chance to be the sample actually selected.

28. Let’s look at those rectangles again! • Let’s randomly pick 5 rectangles. • Press • Math • Prb • RandInt (1,100,5) • Find the area of the five rectangles that match the numbers you generated.

30. Choosing a SRS…using a Random Number Chart • Be specific about how you select • Indicate the stopping rule • Tell whether you sample with or without replacement • Use labels to identify subjects selected to be in the sample

31. We are planning an article on family-friendly places to stay over spring break at a nearby beach town. The editors intend to call 4 randomly chosen hotels to ask about their amenities for families with children. They have an alphabetized list of all 28 hotels in the town. 69051 64817 87174 09517 84534 06489 87201 97245 88221 22356 77183 88725

32. Activity • Which rectangle would you choose if you used the random number table? (Table D – back of the book) • How would you do it?

33. Homework • Page 226 (1-11) odd • Worksheet