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2020 Census and Redistricting Texas Association of Counties Austin , TX September 5, 2019

2020 Census and Redistricting Texas Association of Counties Austin , TX September 5, 2019. @TexasDemography. CENSUS 2020. Every ten years, the country conducts a census to count every person in the United States. The next count will take place April 1, 2020 .

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2020 Census and Redistricting Texas Association of Counties Austin , TX September 5, 2019

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  1. 2020 Census and Redistricting • Texas Association of Counties • Austin, TX • September 5, 2019 @TexasDemography

  2. CENSUS 2020 Every ten years, the country conducts a census to count every person in the United States. The next count will take place April 1, 2020. Census counts used to reapportion the U.S. House of Representatives, determining how many seats each state gets. Census counts also used to determine the number of electoral college votes a state gets. Census counts used by state officials to redrawcongressional and state legislative boundaries to account for population shifts.

  3. Population Growth and Projected Congressional Seats of Select States Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates; Brennan Center for Justice.

  4. Texas added 379,128 people between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018. • About 1,039 people per day added to our population. • About 524 persons per day from natural increase (more births than deaths) • About 515 per day from net migration (288 international and 227 domestic migrants per day). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.

  5. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2018 87% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates

  6. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates

  7. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates

  8. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2017-2018 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates Harris, Dallas, and Hidalgo Counties had negative net migration.

  9. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2017-2018 *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2018 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates

  10. Estimated net-migration by county, Texas, 2010-2017 Blue counties added population Orange counties lost population Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

  11. Change in Housing Units by County: 2009 to 2017 Sources: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 5-Year Samples

  12. Characteristics associated with census undercount Renters Racial/ethnic minorities (African American, Latino) Young men Children (not biological, Hispanic, complex households, renter HHs, very young) Rural Foreign born Non-English speakers

  13. ROAM

  14. Percent of Housing Units Built before 1960 (left) and after 2000 (right), DFW Metro, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 ACS 5-Year Estimates

  15. ROAM

  16. Linear Forecast of Census Bureau Population Estimates 2010-2018 and TDC Population Projections Ideal House District Size = 197,384 to 197,851 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections; linear forecast derived by the Texas Demographic Center from Census Bureau Population Estimates

  17. 2010 Population and Projected 2020 Population, Texas Counties Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  18. 2020 Projected Population and 2030 Projected Population, Texas Counties Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  19. Projected Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2020 72 counties are projected to experience population decline between 2010 and 2020. Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  20. Projected Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2020 to 2030 91 counties are projected to experience population decline between 2020 and 2030. Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  21. Top 10 Texas Counties with Greatest and Least Numeric Change, 2010-2020 & 2020-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  22. Top 10 Texas Counties with Greatest and Least Percent Change, 2010-2020 & 2020-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario, Vintage 2018

  23. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, • 2010 and 2018 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018 Population Estimates

  24. Projected Population, 2010-2050, Texas Ideal House District Size = 197,851 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections

  25. Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

  26. Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Projected Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2030, Texas Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

  27. Percent of Total Population Change by Race/Ethnicity for Counties Adding the Greatest Numbers Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

  28. Percent of Total Population Change by Race/Ethnicity for Fastest Growing Counties Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

  29. Redistricting Dates • Apportionment File sent to POTUS on 12/31/2020 • Redistricting Data File (Public Law 94-171 File) received by the Governor no later than April 1, 2021 • PL 94-171 released to states in groups of 8 states per week, with one week prior notice • PL 94-171 File to include: • Race, • Race for population 18 and older, • Race and Hispanic origin, • Race and Hispanic origin for population 18 and older, • Occupancy Status • Group Quarters (GQ) Population by GQ Type • Data available at WWW.CENSUS.GOV/RDO

  30. Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D. (210) 458-6530 Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography

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