Overview

1. National Weather Service Office of Science & Technology Perspective on Future Enterprise Observing SystemsMike Johnson Don Berchoff, DirectorPaula Davidson, Pete RoohrOffice of Science & TechnologyNational Weather Service2 February 2010

2. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems • Requirements Process • NWS Science & Technology Roadmap • Summary

3. NESDIS/OSD Technology, Planning and Integration Office (TPIO)…Current Process Ecosystem Goal EC Climate Goal CL Weather & Water Goal WW Commerce & Transportation Goal CT Mission Support Goal MS Satellite Sub-Goal Fleet Sub-Goal MOBI Sub-Goal Leadership Sub-Goal Line and Staff Offices Chief Financial Officer Program Analysis & Eval- uation National Marine Fisheries Service National Weather Service Program Planning & Inte- gration National Ocean Service NOAA Satellite And Info. Service Oceanic & Atmos- pheric Research Goals and Sub-Goals Goalsand Sub-Goals CFO NMFS PA & E NOS NWS PPI NESDIS OAR CFO Manage observing requirements process for Provide analysis products to Interface with NOAA Observing Systems Council Research Council NOAA Ocean Council Chief Financial Officer Council Chief Info. Officer Council Fleet Council 3 Councils NOC Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO NOSC Research CIO FC CFO Collect Observation Requirements • Maintain and manage Consolidated Observation Requirement List (CORL) • Manage NOAA’s observing requirement verification and validation process NOAA Observing System Portfolio Analysis • Maintain and manage NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA) • Perform investment portfolio analysis Develop and Analyze NOAA Environmental Data Management Systems • Maintain and manage Information Management System (IMS) inventory • Implement Global Earth Observation-Integrated Data Environment (GEO-IDE)

4. NOAA’s Proposed Strategy…future process(still under draft & review) NOAA’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY NOAA’S 5-YEAR STRATEGY Mission: To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs Science Service Stewardship Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Objectives Vision:Healthy and productive communities, economies, and ecosystems within a changing world Weather Ready Nation Objectives Sustainable, Resilient Fisheries, Species & Habitats Objectives Objectives Provide Science, Service, and Stewardship Objectives Sustainable Coastal Communities and Economies Produce Observations, Modeling, and Research Objectives NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Mary Glackin NOAA DUS @ Jan 2010 AMS Objectives Manage People, Finances, and Infrastructure

5. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems • Requirements Process • NWS Science & Technology Roadmap • Summary

6. National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a Weather-Sensitive Society • Severe weather to protect lives and property • Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives • Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets • Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts • Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP (NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)

7. Baseline Demand SectorCapacity 80-125% Future Demand 125-200% >200% Aviation Weather: High-impact Information • Air traffic likely doubling by 2025 • Delays cost $41 billion/year (2007) • 70% were weather related NextGen 2025 goal: • 2/3 reduction with better weather information • Improvements to forecast lead-time for initiation of storm-scale convection, ceiling/visibility

8. NWS/OS&T Mission Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations • Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance) • Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions • Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation • Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next-generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc • Enable Continuous Improvement…with • Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere budget era • Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints • Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

9. Science Service Area Key Products/Services S&T Goal 2025Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior Aviation Key Products: • Convection Initiation 2025 Stretch Goal: • 30 minute lead time Research Needs/Oppty Examples: • Initiation, evolution of convection Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles Aviation Convection Initiation, evolution and dissipation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection Severe Weather Severe Weather Tornado Warning Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter Weather Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity Snow band formation and snow intensity Marine Marine Storm Warnings Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical Weather Key Products: • Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts 2025 Stretch Goal: • Errors reduced by 50% Research Needs/Oppty Examples: • Causes of rapid intensity changes Tropical Weather Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50% Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes Causes of rapid intensity changes Climate Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate, probabilistic 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Air Quality Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter Air Quality Predictions Space Weather >90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami <5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models Emerging Areas/Surface Wx 1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts S&T Roadmap 2025 Stretch Goals http://www.weather.gov/ost/S&TRoadmap 9

10. Better sea surface observations and data assimilation • Better ocean-atmosphere coupled models • Social Sciences integration … Roadmap Example: Tropical Weather Stretch goal: 50% Reduction in Forecast Track and Intensity Errors requires

11. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program: Recent Progress NCEP Reworking Data Assimilation plans based on finding Accomplishments: • Improved Data Assimilation system gave 14% improvement in 5-day track forecast • High resolution ensemble systems show both track and intensity forecast improvements

12. Strategies Integration:National Mesonet, Network of Networks, Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR), Global Systems, multisensor platforms Optimization: OSEs, OSSEs Standards Architectures, Protocols Maximize investment value Future Weather Information Database Open Architecture Analysis Inventory & Assess systems, metadata Assess interdepend-encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality Current Individual Systems Public, Private. Universities Radar, Satellite Surface; in-Situ, Upper Air…. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Integrated Observation/Analysis System Accomplishments • Established Mesonet Project Office • Contracts for Metadata analysis • Interagency Collaboration; Committees: • OFCM/Integrated Observing Systems • AMS Ad Hoc Committee • OSSE Testbed 12

13. Components Chemistry Dynamics Physics Couplers Weather Industry WIDB S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Integrated Environmental Modeling System Atmospheric Model Earth System Models Ocean Land Surface Air Quality Space Hydrology Ecosystem Ensembles Etc Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Resolution Changes, Downscaling Post Processing: bias correction, statistics, ensembles Product Generation Verification 4D Data Assimilation e.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids Accomplishments • Increased focus on external participation • Investment in Developmental Test Center – • WRF today; Ensembles tomorrow, Global models in future • NUOPC NOAA/Navy/AF partnership 13 13

14. WIDB IMETS Responders Emergency Operations Center S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support System NWS Forecasters Emergency Managers Accomplishments • Innovation center outreach • Groundwork to advance iNWS enterprise-wide 14

15. Private Sector Observations Forecasting Numerical Modeling Systems Satellites Statistical Forecasting Systems Network Enabled Operations Data Integration NWS Forecaster Radars Aircraft 4D Wx SAS ForecastSystems Surface Forecast Integration Soundings Grids WIDB Cube Decision Support Systems Custom Graphic Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Integration into User Decisions S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Weather Information Database (WIDB) Accomplishments • NOMADS, MADIS, NDFD data/information ready • Progress on weather IT architecture integration

16. Strategic PrioritiesPutting it All Together:Grand Challenge Demonstrations • For developing and injecting S&T advances needed for improved: • Prediction of initiation, evolution of convection for aviation weather, severe weather, tropical weather • Ecosystem prediction with hydrology focus • Winds forecasting for renewable energy

17. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems • Requirements Process • NWS Science & Technology Roadmap • Summary

18. Summary • Requirements process defines observation needs to meet strategic goals • Requirements process is changing • NWS Science & Technology Roadmap defines NWS strategic goals • These goals are used as context for prioritizing observation needs to fill weather & water goals

19. Questions? email: nwsostroadmap@noaa.gov

20. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Incorporate Social Sciences Strategies in Research & Operations Example • Probabilistic Forecasts • Communicating Forecast Uncertainty High Public Weather Industry Public Decision Makers Educated on use of probabilistic guidance to ensure best response Social Science Infusion Difficulty Forecasters Incorporating Uncertainty for Managing Risk and Making Decisions Private Sector Human Factors, Communicating Uncertainty Sophisticated Users Low Time Today 20

21. Science Service Area Key Products/Services S&T Goal 2025Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection Severe Weather Severe Weather Tornado Warning Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter Weather Winter Weather Winter Hazards Winter Storm Warning High-Res User-Defined Thresholds 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity Snow band formation and snow intensity Marine Marine Storm Warnings Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical Weather Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50% Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes Causes of rapid intensity changes Climate Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Air Quality Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter Air Quality Predictions Space Weather >90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami <5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models Emerging Areas/Surface Wx 1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Service Area Goals

22. Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD) Description: • Summary (report) of Program observing system requirements • Requirements independent of current or planned platforms Recipients: • Hardcopy/email to program managers,NOSC, etc Application: • Allows program managers to review and verify current observing requirements 22 Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO

23. Tropical Cyclones Roadmap R&D Needs and Opportunities • Cause of rapid intensity changes • Key observations needed for improved forecasting • Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions • Predictability limits • Vortex-convection-environment interactions • Microphysics of convection at high-resolution • Social Science Vision Finer scale and highly accurate track, intensity and inundation forecasts that trigger appropriate responses resulting in reduced loss of life and economic impacts Increasing Impact • Halved track & intensity forecast errors • Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis • Communication of accurate high-resolution information • Wind radii forecasts to 5 days • Wind& surge impact guidance to 36-hr • Improved rapid intensity change, POD and FAR • Track forecast to 7 days • Detailed storm-surge/inundation forecasts • Improved tropical cyclone precip. estimates 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25 Time 23