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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend. Oil Price. A play Hubbert curve Technology Examples Lambda Hubbert Curve Lambda Hubbert Change Price Forecast. 1. A Play. What is this?. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs.

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World Oil Production Trend:

How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend


Oil price
Oil Price

  • A play

  • Hubbert curve

  • Technology

  • Examples

  • Lambda Hubbert Curve

  • Lambda Hubbert Change

  • Price Forecast




This is Haynesville

It is the number of rigs


Why is the rig count going down?

1) Low natural gas price

2) Technology

3) Depletion


This suggests:

Shale can have quick peaks

and declines


2 hubbert
2. Hubbert

Hubbert is a trend


Discovery and Production

Discovery

Hubbert Curve

Discovery,

Production

T0

T1

T2

Time

Production

Hubbert Curve



CQ

Hubbert Curve

CQ

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Time

CQD

0

URR

CQD

Cumulative Hubbert Curve

URR

0

Time


Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR





? 2005



4 examples
4. Examples 2005

Examples of Hubbert

and

Technology




This 2005 is the US on Steroids





5 lambda hubbert
5. Lambda 2005Hubbert

Risk aversion


Quadratic Hubbert Curve 2005

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


Quadratic Hubbert Curve 2005

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological Maximum Supply

Path of Actual Oil

Production

Production

Paths of potential oil

production expansion

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


Venezuela and US 20052005 Indexed Hubbert Curve


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Curve 2009


World Normal and Lambda 2005Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Curve 2009


Normal Quadratic 2005Hubbert Curve Equation

Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation

QP = b1*CQP + b2*CQP1+λ


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


World Lambda 2005Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


6 lambda hubbert change
6. Lambda 2005HubbertChange

Forecast


7 price forecasts
7. Price Forecasts 2005

Consolidating TRENDS


Conclusion
Conclusion 2005

  • Hubbert, Hubbert , Hubbert.

  • Lambda Hubbert

  • Multi-cycle Lambda Hubbert

  • Looking at history shows:

    2nd cycles often short



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