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Explore the changing dynamics of global oil production influenced by U.S. shale oil, using the Hubbert curve, technology examples, and price forecasts. Discover why rig counts fluctuate, the role of Hubbert's theory, and the implications of technological advancements. Uncover the risk aversion with Lambda Hubbert analysis and gain insights into future price forecasts.
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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend
Oil Price • A play • Hubbert curve • Technology • Examples • Lambda Hubbert Curve • Lambda Hubbert Change • Price Forecast
This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs
Why is the rig count going down? 1) Low natural gas price 2) Technology 3) Depletion
This suggests: Shale can have quick peaks and declines
2. Hubbert Hubbert is a trend
Discovery and Production Discovery Hubbert Curve Discovery, Production T0 T1 T2 Time Production Hubbert Curve
CQ Hubbert Curve CQ Quadratic Hubbert Curve Time CQD 0 URR CQD Cumulative Hubbert Curve URR 0 Time
Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply Production Cumulative Production 0 URR
US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005
4. Examples Examples of Hubbert and Technology
5. Lambda Hubbert Risk aversion
Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply Production Cumulative Production 0 URR
Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological Maximum Supply Path of Actual Oil Production Production Paths of potential oil production expansion Cumulative Production 0 URR
Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation QP = b1*CQP + b2*CQP1+λ
6. Lambda HubbertChange Forecast
7. Price Forecasts Consolidating TRENDS