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Norton Rose Election Briefing seminar: Immigration and population. Gary Johns 17 August 2010. The political problem. Big city commuters uptight at lengthening supply lines/journey to work/queues, need someone to blame Last in the door (migrants and the most visible, boat people)
17 August 2010
How to settle the troops, maintain a migration program and understand the nature of the population challenge, knowing that you are not able to really do much!
‘Skilled and steady wins the race’
‘Assimilation in the age of identity’
‘Thomas Malthus or Bill Gates?’
NOM accounted for 70% of population growth in Victoria, SA and WA .
The age structure and size of Australia’s future population depends on:
• life expectancy.
Dick Smith panics!
But we are going to grow regardless
Labor has not specified a number
Coalition has called for NOM 170 000
Number arriving less the number departing.
Driven by growth in the Temporary Business (Long Stay) component, including full‑feepaying international students, higher levels of skilled temporary long‑term migration and New Zealand citizens.
[DIAC figure = 336 130]
Not the major part of net overseas migration.
Boat people only a couple of thousand, a small component of a small component of the immigration program.
Dominance of long‑term arrivals over permanent settlers for India and the People’s Republic of China, due mainly to the large numbers of international students coming from these countries.
Major reorientation in policy.
During the 2009–10 budget announcements, the government announced its intention to increase
the English language threshold for General Skilled Migration applicants nominating a trade occupation.
India and China are the big sources of growth.
Australia had falling GDP growth but a rising net migrant intake, not a sensible combination.
Cuts in skilled migration did not bite was because in 2008–09 arrivals of permanent migrants represented less than a fifth of all arrivals, making cuts to permanent migration of little consequence.
The main factor that drove the record high net migration intake in 2008–09 was the movements of temporary migrants, particularly international students and temporary skilled migrants.
Unemployment rates, participation rates and the likelihood of full‑time employment among skilled migrants are similar regardless of whether they came from a Mainly English speaking country or a Non‑English speaking country.
On the other hand, family migrants from Non-English speaking countries are less likely to be in the workforce, more likely to be unemployed and less likely to be working full‑time than family migrants from English speaking countries.
For Australia, the United States, New Zealand and Canada a recent study found the children of migrants have education and labour market outcomes that are as good as the children of native‑born parents.
Access Economics Migrant Fiscal Impact Model has demonstrated that migrants make a strong contribution to the Australian Government Budget.
Treasury has tested Access under more recent, less favourable conditions.
Original estimates of unemployment, revenue and expenditure.
Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue and expenditure.
Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue, expenditure and unemployment.
Per capita growth is the key …
Assimilation or identity?