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Norton Rose Election Briefing seminar: Immigration and population. Gary Johns 17 August 2010. The political problem. Big city commuters uptight at lengthening supply lines/journey to work/queues, need someone to blame Last in the door (migrants and the most visible, boat people)

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Presentation Transcript
the political problem
The political problem
  • Big city commuters uptight at lengthening supply lines/journey to work/queues, need someone to blame
  • Last in the door (migrants and the most visible, boat people)
  • State governments fail to invest in traffic management
  • Federal government runs an historically high net migration program

How to settle the troops, maintain a migration program and understand the nature of the population challenge, knowing that you are not able to really do much!

the migration and population problems
The migration and population problems
  • Economy – migrant contribution v. adjustment costs

‘Skilled and steady wins the race’

  • Political stability – challenges to liberal democracy

‘Assimilation in the age of identity’

  • Defence – cost per head in an Asian century

‘Be vigilant’

  • Environment/amenity – what is sustainability?

‘Thomas Malthus or Bill Gates?’

migration s contribution to population growth
Migration’s contribution to population growth

NOM accounted for 70% of population growth in Victoria, SA and WA .

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
  • (a) revised NOM method, (b) preliminary data.
projected population 2006 2101
Projected population 2006–2101

The age structure and size of Australia’s future population depends on:

• fertility

• NOM

• life expectancy.

Dick Smith panics!

But we are going to grow regardless

Labor has not specified a number

Coalition has called for NOM 170 000

  • Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and NOM.
  • Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each variable respectively.
  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
population flows immigration aspects 2008 09
Population flows: Immigration aspects 2008–09

Number arriving less the number departing.

Driven by growth in the Temporary Business (Long Stay) component, including full‑feepaying international students, higher levels of skilled temporary long‑term migration and New Zealand citizens.

[DIAC figure = 336 130]

Not the major part of net overseas migration.

Boat people only a couple of thousand, a small component of a small component of the immigration program.

Dominance of long‑term arrivals over permanent settlers for India and the People’s Republic of China, due mainly to the large numbers of international students coming from these countries.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
components of net overseas migration nom 1984 2009
Components of net overseas migration (NOM) 1984–2009

Major reorientation in policy.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
migration program outcomes by stream
Migration Program outcomes by stream

During the 2009–10 budget announcements, the government announced its intention to increase

the English language threshold for General Skilled Migration applicants nominating a trade occupation.

KeatingHowardRudd

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
number of students present in australia by major citizenship
Number of students present in Australia by major citizenship

India and China are the big sources of growth.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
annual gdp growth and rate of nom 1960 to 2008
Annual GDP growth and rate of NOM, 1960 to 2008

Australia had falling GDP growth but a rising net migrant intake, not a sensible combination.

Cuts in skilled migration did not bite was because in 2008–09 arrivals of permanent migrants represented less than a fifth of all arrivals, making cuts to permanent migration of little consequence.

The main factor that drove the record high net migration intake in 2008–09 was the movements of temporary migrants, particularly international students and temporary skilled migrants.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
labour market status of migrants by stream and birthplace
Labour market status of migrants by stream and birthplace

Unemployment rates, participation rates and the likelihood of full‑time employment among skilled migrants are similar regardless of whether they came from a Mainly English speaking country or a Non‑English speaking country.

On the other hand, family migrants from Non-English speaking countries are less likely to be in the workforce, more likely to be unemployed and less likely to be working full‑time than family migrants from English speaking countries.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
labour market outcomes of children of migrants and others 2006
Labour market outcomes of children of migrants and others 2006

For Australia, the United States, New Zealand and Canada a recent study found the children of migrants have education and labour market outcomes that are as good as the children of native‑born parents.

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
net fiscal benefit of 2008 09 original and budget estimates
Net fiscal benefit of 2008–09 —original and budget estimates

Access Economics Migrant Fiscal Impact Model has demonstrated that migrants make a strong contribution to the Australian Government Budget.

Treasury has tested Access under more recent, less favourable conditions.

Scenario 1:

Original estimates of unemployment, revenue and expenditure.

Scenario 2:

Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue and expenditure.

Scenario 3:

Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue, expenditure and unemployment.

Per capita growth is the key …

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
proportion of overseas born selected countries
Proportion of overseas‑born, selected countries

Assimilation or identity?

  • Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.