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Modeling Tools to Support Navy Manpower Requirements Analysis. Briefing to RADM Harvey 4 September 2002. Objectives of the Briefing. Provide background on the use of modeling and simulation to forecast manpower requirements

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Modeling Tools to Support Navy Manpower Requirements Analysis


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    1. Modeling Tools to Support Navy Manpower Requirements Analysis Briefing to RADM Harvey 4 September 2002

    2. Objectives of the Briefing • Provide background on the use of modeling and simulation to forecast manpower requirements • Present the advantages of manpower modeling approach over traditional approaches to manpower requirements • Present three immediately available technologies that could be incorporated • Discuss future development of modeling and simulation to augment NMRS

    3. Background on Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Analysis • Industry has used modeling and simulation to evaluate manpower needs for several decades • DoD began developing methods for modeling human systems in the 1970s • Army MANPRINT program adopted modeling and simulation-based tools for determining operational manpower requirements in late 1980s/early 1990s • Accredited modeling as a basis for manpower requirements analysis during design in 1995 • Navy began research in the use of modeling for manpower analysis in the 1990s

    4. Background on Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Analysis • DD 21/(X) changed the landscape of the systems engineering process with respect to manpower modeling in the DoD • Manpower was a KPP • Manpower issues had to be tied to operational consequences • DD 21/(X) was an SBA (simulation-based acquisition) • DD 21/(X) was a revolutionary system, so old approaches (e.g., HARDMAN) would not workForecasting manpower requirements accurately, tracking them to system performance requirements, and doing it on a sound engineering basis was a necessity!

    5. Background on Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Analysis • The manpower modeling ideas and technology from DD 21/(X) matured during several Navy R&D efforts • ONR Manning Affordability Initiative • Watchstander Model • SEAIT/SMART3 • Total Crew Model • The ideas and technology became a part of the systems engineering toolkit for other programs • Coast Guard Deepwater • JCC(X) • AEGIS Open Architecture • TSI approach to modernization

    6. Advantages of Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Determination • Full traceability between mission and manpower requirements • “If we man to this level, we can expect this mission performance” • Considers and evaluates the “peaks and valleys” of the need for manpower • Straightforward ways to trade between at-sea and in-port workload concepts • Transparent and understandable • Ability to trace manpower-induced problems to the source, and identify the impact of possible solutions • A solid link to systems engineering and design • Tools are available, mature, and low cost or free • Significant validation has already been conducted

    7. Number required Mission duration What Many Manpower Models Assume

    8. Number required Mission duration What Drives Manpower and Ship Performance

    9. Advantages of Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Determination • Full traceability between mission and manpower requirements • “If we man to this level, we can expect this mission performance” • Considers and evaluates the “peaks and valleys” of the need for manpower • Straightforward ways to understand at-sea and in-port workload • Transparent and understandable • Ability to trace manpower-induced problems to the source, and identify the impact of possible solutions • A solid link to systems engineering and design • Tools are available, mature, and low cost or free • Significant validation has already been conducted

    10. Proposed Improvements • Complement existing NMRS algorithms / calculations data • Strengthen the PSMD development process • Provide meaningful trade space analysis for the acquisition process • Ensure: • CONSISTENTLY • Apply Navy Manpower and personnel policies • Apply uniform parameters and allowances • Combine Watch and Workload data • UNIFORMLY • Translate workload drivers • Optimize requirements within specified boundaries • Determine minimum skill and quality • Reflects: • Scenario based wartime and peacetime missions • Warfare sponsor requirements (ROC/POE)

    11. Objectives of Manpower Modeling • Provide quantitative metrics in a controlled simulation to support system engineering and trade space analysis • Support manning optimization • Existing Tools • Watchstander Model (WSM) • Detailed watchstander operations during dynamic scenario execution • Total Crew Model (TCM) • Detailed crew activity and fatigue data • SMART Build 3 • Detailed maintenance and skill set data

    12. Tenets of Optimized Manning • Own Unit Support • Special Evolutions • QoL Services Corrective and Facilities Maintenance • Maximize Crew Performance • Identify “Best”operator to perform task • Reduce Workload • Technology Insertion • Process Re-engineering • Capability Change • Re-allocate from sea to shore • Reduced Workload Does not Equate Directly to Eliminated Billets • SMD Conditional Watches • Collateral Duties • Policy Requirements • Damage Control • Req’d Admin Preventative Maintenance Watchstanding

    13. Underlying Approach: Task Network Modeling

    14. Watchstander Model(Cognitive-level)

    15. Model Explanation Micro-level, 1 second time slices Simultaneous mission execution Team definition and workload calculation System model with human as the focus Process Task analysis Build Task Flows Allocate Sailor/Auto to task Scenario Run simulation Analyze results Analysis Metrics Workload Instantaneous < 100% 3 minute running average < 95% 1 Hour running average < 80%, > 20% Goal 65% No lost mission critical tasks Previous Projects DD 21 / (X) AMO DEEPWATER FORCEnet DCPM (DC Personnel Model) RSA Watchstander Model

    16. Watchstander Model • Use SME and system engineer inputs • Detailed workload analysis for watchstanders. • CIC • Engineering • Damage Control • Bridge • Food Service • Design tool for CS engineers. • Tests multiple design variants before committing. • Evaluates mission simultaneity • Provides empirical data identifying the relationships between track density and crew workload.

    17. Demo

    18. Total Crew Model

    19. Total Crew Model • Rapid trade space analysis through optimization of relevant outcomes asking “What if…” questions • Ship capabilities (can the crew perform all evolutions?) • Evaluate impact of system design changes on crew workload • Evaluate impact of ship’s schedule on crew fatigue • Evaluate resource availability on mission success • Target limited resources for best results • Training requirements for billets • Quality of life issues • Personal time, work hours and type of work, sleep, meals

    20. Model Explanation Macro-level, 15 minute time slices Simultaneous event execution Crew workload versus Navy staffing standards Test crew size against mission execution DDG 85 baseline WQ&SB & ship class SMD working papers Process Define evolutions/events Define priority matrix Build task flow Assign sailors to evolutions Randomize special events Run simulation Analyze results Analysis Metrics Ships schedule Mission accomplishment Crew activity data Sleep = 8 hrs/day Personal Time = 2.5 hrs/day Meals = 1.5 hrs/day Work = 12 hrs/day 81 hours weekly Fatigue Previous Projects DEEPWATER DD21 / (X) FORCEnet DCPM Total Crew Model

    21. Total Crew Model Components • Daily Routine • Watchstanders • Maintainers • Food Service • Admin • Schedules depend on current readiness condition. • Crew Assignments (WQ&SB) • Assignment of billets to evolutions. (Resources sheet) • Rules defining personnel requirements for evolutions. (Logic sheet) • Trump Matrix • Contains all possible pair wise comparisons for task priorities. • Scenario • Normal routine and authored recurring and infrequent evolutions. • Usually > 10 days to ensure compounded fatigue is captured.

    22. Daily Routine Scripted Evolution Schedule Daily Routine & Evolution Scheduling • Modeled as series of task networks • Each crewmember belongs to a home network • Evolutions are scheduled in the model event queue to occur at a scripted times • Evolutions use the WQ&SB and the trump matrix to select crew members Watch Sections 1, 2, & 3 Day Schedules

    23. Evolution Priority Matrix WQ&SB Sailor Assignment & Trump Matrix • Crew members are designated for each evolution • Specific rules are given for selecting from several crew members • Each evolution & routine schedule event is compared to each other evolution for prioritization • A trumping evolution must trump all scheduled tasks for crew member for the duration of the evolution Choose most rested HCO Choose most rested LSO Trumping Task

    24. Linear Awake Degradation & Parabolic Sleep Recovery Awake Asleep Circadian Component Combined Degradation Fatigue Degradation Equation

    25. Personal Needs Work Sleep Total Crew Model Output Examples:Fatigue & Total Hours Breakdown • Micro sleep begins ~ 9 • Micro sleep increases in duration • & frequency as fatigue climbs Exhausted Normal

    26. Total Crew Model Mission Data – Evolution Delays/Failures – Successful Evolutions

    27. TCM Validation Effort • Phase I(to be conducted onboard USS Milius) • Navy’s current optimal manning experiment (OME) DDG • Test actual data against model predicted data • Mission schedule • Mission effectiveness • Crew assignments • Crew fatigue • Phase II (to be conducted a non-experimental ship) • For further validation • Control

    28. Model Explanation PM, CM – Based on equipment usage FM, OUS – Scheduled (can be deferred) Stochastic Operational Functions/Tasks Function Task Skill Requirements Job (Rank/Rating) skills and abilities Process Define System Parameters (Equipment, Compartments, Maintenance Actions) Scenario Development (GANTT Charting feature) Function/Task analysis Build Task Flows Allocate job/auto to tasks Run simulation/Analyze results Analysis Metrics Skill Usage (average and over time) Crew Requirement Utilization (average and over time) Operational and Directed Manhour Requirements Maintenance Hit Matrix Personnel Conflicts Crew Composition Cost Data Navy Projects Currently being integrated with Manpower Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) Navy owned SMART B3 Model

    29. SMART Build 3 Features • Operational & Maintenance manpower • Focus on skills needed to perform tasks • Requirements based • Driven from the bottom-up • Assigned to jobs • Apply iterative, “what-if” analytical approach

    30. Minimize cost Minimize crew size Minimize number of different jobs Minimize workload SMART B3 Challenge • What is the BEST crew composition for a new system? • Skills • Size • Cost • Complications • Early answers required • Fast turn-around required • Range of missions and environments

    31. Working Together Building SMART B3 – The Pieces Human Performance Modeling Skill and Ability Taxonomy Ship Manpower Analysis and Requirement Tools (SMART) To Evaluate New Acquisitions and Evolving Manning Concepts for Legacy Ships Existing ManpowerShip Data & Maintenance Models

    32. SMART B3 Skill Taxonomy • Based on taxonomy work by Edwin A. Fleishman • 50 different skills and abilities grouped into 8 different categories • Scales anchored with behavioral examples Communication Visual Auditory Conceptual Speed-Loaded Reasoning Fine Motor Gross Motor

    33. SMD Directed Manpower PMS Preventive Maintenance Data JASS KSA Data COMET Cost Data MAPS Watch Station & ‘High Driver’ Man-hour Requirements FMWAP Facilities Maintenance

    34. Sample Build 3 Results • Overall skill usage • By run & job • 8 Major Categories • Skill usage over time • View selected skills/abilities (1-4) for any one job • Crew Requirement • Comparison of number personnel used to number available • Utilization • Total & Over Time by Job

    35. Watchstander Model Micro-level design tool. Detailed workload analysis for watchstanders. Tests multiple design variants before committing. Provides empirical data on low level task and function performance. Total Crew Model Macro-level design tool. High-level workload and crew activity analysis for entire ship’s crew. Considers fatigue and crew resiliency/performance. Identifies manpower resource drivers. Provides empirical data identifying the relationships between manpower, scenarios, and performance. SMART B3 Focus on mixing the jobs that the crew does to optimize different aspects of ship manning. Includes sophisticated maintenance modeling capability. Model Summary

    36. task performance reallocate tasks jobs billets? Model Interactions TCM SMART3 WSM

    37. Development $ • Procurement $ • Installation $ • Maintenance • Labor • Spares, etc. Technology/ Innovation Other TSIT Analysis Effect on Functions Manpower Modeling and Associated Analysis • Number of Crew • Skill Rqmt • Etc. Crew Hypothesis: # & Skill Mix • Personnel $ • Training $ Modeling & Methodology Result Influences Total Ownership Cost Total Ownership Cost RDT&E Design and Construction Acquisition Operations & Support Life Cycle • Indirect Manpower • Other Personnel/ Infrastructure

    38. Advantages of Modeling and Simulation for Manpower Requirements Determination • Full traceability between mission and manpower requirements • “If we man to this level, we can expect this mission performance” • Considers and evaluates the “peaks and valleys” of the need for manpower • Straightforward ways to trade between at-sea and in-port workload concepts • Transparent and understandable • Ability to trace manpower-induced problems to the source, and identify the impact of possible solutions • A solid link to systems engineering and design • Tools are available and mature • Significant validation has already been conducted