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MSE and Coastal Zone Management

MSE and Coastal Zone Management. Bill de la Mare CMAR. February, 2011. Adaptive management. Human activity. World. Outcomes. Objectives. Decision Rules. Measurements. Adaptive management simulator. Performance criteria. Model human activity. Management Decisions. Model world.

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MSE and Coastal Zone Management

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  1. MSE and Coastal Zone Management Bill de la Mare CMAR February, 2011

  2. Adaptive management Human activity World Outcomes Objectives Decision Rules Measurements

  3. Adaptive management simulator Performance criteria Model human activity Management Decisions Model world Outcomes Objectives Simulated measurements

  4. Aspirations Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

  5. Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

  6. Environment Social Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

  7. Environment Social Reachable space Economic Natural Capital Institutional More Best possible

  8. Dealing with structural uncertainty and scenarios Performance criteria Model human activity 1 Objectives Outcomes Decisions Model World 1 Model World 2 Model human activity 2 Model World 3 . . . . . . Model human activity n Model World n . . . Simulated measurements

  9. Component models in C2C MSE Management decision and action models Rural land-use models River and stream biophysical models Urban land-use models Future weather and climate scenarios Water treatment models Future development scenarios Receiving water quality biophysical models Selected taxa models Assessment against objectives: environmental, social, economic EHMP model

  10. Sod’s Law of Information The information you … … have is not the information you want … want is not the information you need … need is not the information you can obtain … can obtain costs more than you can afford

  11. Objectives of client or organiser Science / Expert facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios Participatory Integrated Assessment procedures, group interaction, moderation, information presentation, scenarios, surprises Policy facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios Policy-oriented synthesis facts, relationships, models, maps, scenarios

  12. Adaptive management “open loop” simulator Decision maker Model human activity Outcomes Model world Objectives Simulated measurements

  13. Adaptive management “closed loop” simulator Simulated decision maker Model human activity Outcomes Model world Objectives Simulated measurements

  14. Physical World Management World Investment Management Constraints Objectives Economic activities Management actions Benefits Ecosystem services Natural capital Catch Management Strategy Data Data Data Data Estimation of status Data Data

  15. Current paths to science impact Science / Research Assessment Policy development Political decision Information flow Strong / normative Weak / normative Weak Very weak / absent

  16. Influence of assessments • External Factors • Historical context • User characteristics • Influences on: • Understanding • Goals • Decisions • Behaviour Relevance Credibility Legitimacy Relevance Credibility Legitimacy • Design of assessment • Process • Product

  17. Influence of assessments • External Factors • Historical context • User characteristics • Influences on: • Understanding • Goals • Decisions • Behaviour Relevance Credibility Legitimacy Relevance Credibility Legitimacy • Design of assessment • Process • Product

  18. More effective paths to science impact Science / Research Assessment Policy development Political decision Information flow Strong / normative Normative Useability

  19. Proposed increment in human activities Region highly Impacted? No Yes Plan with existing/qualitative models Plan with high fidelity models Sustainability Probable? A No Yes Precautionary approach has been satisfied OK

  20. A Multiple-use Issues? Yes Multiple-use MSE Single-use MSE No Sustainability Probable? Sustainability Probable? Yes Yes OK Precautionary approach has been satisfied No No Adjust proposed use Rebalance multiple uses

  21. Science Challenges Frontier science (combining natural and social sciences) Interaction between natural and socio-economic systems Complexity Irredeemable uncertainty Institutions, governance and policy Competing demands, values and interests Diversity of stakeholders Uncertain management goals Scarce scientific resources

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