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SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting - Atlanta

----- SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting ----- Modeling to Establish Regulatory Limits. Capt. Tulio Rodrigues. In partnership with:. SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting - Atlanta. WHAT`S SCIENCE FOR ???. SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016. Life Expectancy….

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SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting - Atlanta

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  1. ----- SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting ----- Modeling to Establish Regulatory Limits Capt. Tulio Rodrigues In partnership with: SAFTE-FAST 2016 User Group Meeting - Atlanta

  2. WHAT`S SCIENCE FOR ??? SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016

  3. Life Expectancy… SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016

  4. 2. Life Quality… SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 4

  5. 3. Prognostics… SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016

  6. Outline • Accidents versus time on duty: is there an universal pattern? • Risk analysis: • Fatigue risk from SAFTE-FAST model. • Brazilian Pilots FTL`s proposal. • Conclusions SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016

  7. Time on Duty… Combining 4 measurements that include several occupations (*) (*) Data provided by Simon Folkard (private comm.) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016

  8. accident/exposure ratio increases more than 500% from 8 to 13 hours or more on duty... Time on Duty… Taking an aviation example for real accidents (Goode, 2003) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 8

  9. Time on Duty… Fitting non-aviation and aviation data simultaneously So, let’s consider a 12-hour limit for a continuous duty cycle? SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 9

  10. Risk Analysis Scenario 1: first latenight duty(*) D: elapsed time between wake-up and check-in (*) “latenight duty” indicates that any fraction of the duty may elapse between 0000 and 0600 SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 10

  11. Risk Analysis Scenario 2: second latenight duty SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 11

  12. Risk Analysis Scenarios 3, 4 & 5: early-starts 1st day 3rd day 6th day SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 12

  13. Risk Analysis SAFTE-FAST Effectiveness (*) Example for M1: First night shift with check-in at 02:00 and wake-up at 0:00 (*) Runs performed by Lauren Waggoner, PhD (IBR) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 13

  14. Risk Analysis Interpolated SAFTE-FAST Effectiveness (*) (*) Available at: http://www.asagol.com.br/files/_dirtecnica/FRMS/FRMS%20Report%20Part%20II.pdf SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 14

  15. Risk Analysis Fatigue Risk versus Effectiveness Data points: S. Hursh, T. Raslear, A. Kaye and J. Fanzone, Jr. (2006). (Report No. DOT/FRA/ORD-06/21). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation. Error bars: Taken as the square root of the absolute number of accidents in each Effectiveness interval. Accidents data provided by Steven Hursh (private comm.) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 15

  16. Risk Analysis Relative Risk during the duty <R> = 1.008 Eave = 78.92 % SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 16

  17. Risk Analysis Effectiveness & Hazard Area The hazard areas (HA) were calculated by the fraction of the duty period with SAFTE-FAST Effectiveness below a threshold of 80%. SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 17

  18. Risk Analysis Relative Risk & Hazard Area GREEN: LOW RISK AMBER: MEDIUM RISK RED: HIGH RISK • Real accidents SAFTE-FAST calculations: • AIA 808 (Guantanamo Bay): Wesensten & Belenky (private comm.) • Comair 5191: Pruchnicki, Wu & Belenky (2011) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 18

  19. Risk Analysis Brazilian Pilots FTL’s proposal (*) (*) Details at: http://www.asagol.com.br/files/_dirtecnica/FRMS/FRMS%20Report%20Part%20II.pdf SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 19

  20. Risk Analysis Brazilian Pilots FTL’s proposal (*) Current (- - -) versus future limits SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 20

  21. Risk Analysis Brazilian Pilots FTL’s proposal (*) Safety x Productivity Fatigue Risk As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) FDT increased to 12h FDT kept the lowest value between current and future limits FDT decreased to 9h (minimum in the Project Law 8255/14) SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 21

  22. Risk Analysis Brazilian Pilots FTL’s proposal (*) (*) Details at: http://www.asagol.com.br/files/_dirtecnica/FRMS/FRMS%20Report%20Part%20II.pdf SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 22

  23. Conclusions The Hazard Areas (HA) in the secondnightdutiesare significantly higher than in the first ones (around 10 times higher). For this reason, we do not recommend takeoff or landing operations within the WOCL in the second successive night (HA of the same magnitude as in the Guantanamo Bay accident); The relative accident risk considering several occupations (office workers, mining, aviation, etc…) doubles as the time on duty increases from 8 to 12 hours. Increasing the time on duty from 12 to 13 hours increases the risk by roughly 40%; We consider important that the States review their prescriptive limits as they represent the first barrier against fatigue risks (ICAO’s Annex 6). A step back may be needed! SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 23

  24. Acknowledgments • Crew Member National Union (SNA) • Brazilian Civil Aviation Pilots Association (ABRAPAC) • GOL Airline Crew Member Association (ASAGOL) • TAM Airline Crew Member Association (ATT) In Partnership with: • University of São Paulo (USP) • Institutes for Behaviour Resources, Inc Collaborating Stakeholders: • National Centre of Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents (CENIPA) • National Commission of Human Fatigue (CNFH) Special Thanks to: Steven Hursh (IBR), Lauren Waggoner (IBR), Reid Blank (IBR), Robert Mora (IBR), Gregory Belenky (WSU), Nancy Wesensten (WRAIR) and Simon Folkard (France & Swansea University) Thank you! SAFTE-FAST User Group Meeting, Atlanta 2016 1/7/2020 24

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