Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM
Download
1 / 19

Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 76 Views
  • Uploaded on

Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM 2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area. Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock Washington University.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation' - petra-vasquez


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area

Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood

ENVIRON International Corporation

Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock

Washington University


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

St. Louis 2003-2005 Annual PM Site Data to Model PM2.5 Design Values – Two Sites Violate the NAAQS of 15.0 μg/m3: Granite City (17.0 μg/m3) and East St. Louis (15.5 μg/m3)


St louis regional pm 2 5 modeling

36/12 km Modeling Grid Site Data to Model PM

MM5 Meteorological Model

SMOKE Emissions Model

CMAQ & CAMx photochemical grid models

Model Performance Evaluation

Initially with Routine STN and FRM Networks

More Detailed with St. Louis Super Site

PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT)

2009 PM2.5 Design Value Projections

St. Louis Regional PM2.5 Modeling


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

St. Louis Regional 36/12 km grid Site Data to Model PM

CMAQ V4.5 SOAmods

Boundary Conditions (BCs) for 36 km Domain from VISTAS Continental U.S. 36 km CMAQ Simulations (Whose BCs in turn were from a 2002 GEOS-CHEM global chemistry model simulation)


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

= STN Site Site Data to Model PM


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

CMAQ 2002 Annual PM Site Data to Model PM2.5 Constituents

PM2.5 [mg/m3]

Overestimation of “Other” PM2.5 – traced to overstated fugitive dust sources

SO4, NO3, NH4 and EC performance good. OA performance poor


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

Alton Site Data to Model PM

Arnold

Blair

CAP

SO4: Good Agreement

Both CMAQ (FB = -12% to -21%) and CAMx (FB = +3% to +6%). Some localized spikes not captured (note: spike on day 185 @ StL SS is due to July 4 fireworks not in inventory)

StL SS


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

Alton Site Data to Model PM

Arnold

Blair

CAP

StL SS

OMC: Mostly Under-Estimated

CMAQ (FB = -68% to -89%) and CAMx (FB = -55% to -88%) both systematic under-prediction


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

2009 Projected PM Site Data to Model PM2.5 Design Values

MDNR STL 2002 Design Value (Left) and

2009 CAMx Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Left) and

2009 CMAQ Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Right) and

2009 CMAQ BaseG2 12k projected DVF (Right)

20

18

16

14

PBW

NH4

12

Crustal

10

ug/m3

EC

OC

8

NO3

SO4

6

4

2

0

Alton

Arnold

Clayton

Blair St.

Swansea

Ferguson

West Alton

Granite City

Wood River

Sunset Hills

S. Broadway

Tilden City

Margaretta

2nd & Mound

East St. Louis

STL


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) -- Granite City 2009 PM2.5: Source Categories by Species

 Overstated fugitive dust emissions




Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

PMF Source Apportionment Modeling using StL-SS data. 2009 PM

Combined PMF Factor Analysis for Industrial Source#1 Factor with Wind Direction at StL-SS Shows Large Contribution from Granite City Steel Works Direction


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

Wind Analysis of Local vs. Regional PM 2009 PM2.5 Concentrations at Granite City Monitor (B) Identifies GCW Steel Mill & Coke Ovens as Local Contributor


St louis pm 2 5 regional and local problem

CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km Modeling Insufficient to Capture Local Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach:

Use hybrid Plume/Grid modeling approach with AERMOD/ISC Local and CMAQ/CAMx: Problems with mixing modeling results as CMAQ/CAMx designed to be accurate, AERMOD/ISC designed to be conservative.

Use Grid Model with Plume-in-Grid (PiG) for local-scale sources: 12 km grid still very course for sources not treated with PiG.

Use CMAQ/CAMx with finer grids: For example 36/12/4/1.33 km, however even 1.33 km may be insufficient to model local source impacts at Granite City

Use combined CMAQ/CAMx finer grids with PiG for local sources: Combines best features of (2) and (3) without problems of (1).

 Decision to proceed with high resolution grid with PiG model (Option 4).

St. Louis PM2.5: Regional and Local Problem


Ralph morris bonyoung koo jeremiah johnson and greg yarwood environ international corporation

Preliminary 36/12/4/1 km CAMx modeling Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach:

 Even 1 km grid insufficient to capture separation between Granite City sources and monitoring sites (shown are CAMx annual average 1 km model estimates)


St louis hybrid multi scale pm modeling approach

Global-Scale Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach:: GEOS-CHEM provided BCs to Inter RPO USA Domain

Continental-Scale: VISTAS 36 km CMAQ simulations

Regional-Scale: 36/12 km CMAQ/CAMx modeling of StL regional-scale domain

Urban-Scale: CAMx 12/4/1.33 km two-way nesting

Local-Scale: 1.33 km and finer? plus Plume-in-Grid with CAMx two-way 12/4/1.33/0.444 km grids

St. Louis Hybrid Multi-Scale PM Modeling Approach


Camx v4 5 plume in grid module

Secondary Order Closure (SOC) horizontal and vertical diffusion*

Full ozone and PM chemistry using Incremental Chemistry approach*

Subgrid-scale sampling receptors

Releases to grid model when size permits

* Adapted from SCICHEM model

CAMx V4.5 Plume-in-Grid Module


St louis pm 2 5 sip modeling next steps

Testing of Urban- and Local-Scale 12/4/1.33 km CAMx modeling diffusion*

Feasibility of finer (444 m) grids

Use of PiG subgrid-scale puff model

Updated 2002 and 2012 emissions and modeling for Regional-scale CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km and Local-Scale 12/4/1 km CAMx modeling

Comprehensive model performance evaluation using St. Louis Super Site, STN and FRM data

2012 PM2.5 Design Value projections

Control strategy development and modeling

Final documentation for PM2.5 SIP due April 2008

St. Louis PM2.5 SIP Modeling – Next Steps