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Understanding Climate Change: Models, Projections, and Impacts on the Northwest

This outline discusses the complexities of global climate change, focusing on various climate models and socioeconomic scenarios. It highlights significant projections for the Northwest, including the rise of carbon dioxide levels by 32% and an increase in global average temperature by 0.8 degrees Celsius. A variety of climate models, including those from IPCC and other notable organizations, are examined to illustrate their utility in predicting future climate scenarios. The document aims to convey the importance of understanding both natural and human influences on climate, emphasizing the projected temperature change of 0.5°C per decade in the Northwest.

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Understanding Climate Change: Models, Projections, and Impacts on the Northwest

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  1. Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles)

  2. Outline • Very brief primer: Global climate change • Climate models • Socioeconomic scenarios • Projections for the Northwest

  3. Carbon dioxide: up 32%

  4. Global average temperature 0.8 0.4 degrees Celsius 0 -0.4 -0.8 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

  5. The earth is warming -- abruptly

  6. A whole bunch of climate models

  7. Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions

  8. 1 BMRC 2 CCC 3 CCSR 4 CSIRO 5 ECHAM3 6 ECHAM4 7 GFDL 8 HadCM2 9 IAP 10 MRI 11 CERFACS 12 PCM 13 GISS 14 HadCM3 15 LMD 16CSM

  9. Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences

  10. Outline • Very brief primer: Global climate change • Climate models • Socioeconomic scenarios • Projections for the Northwest

  11. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO2 only) W/m2

  12. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols) W/m2

  13. 21st century temperature change IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)

  14. Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990

  15. A range of climate change scenarios Estimated climate change from 20th c. to 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios.

  16. Conclusions • Climate models are useful for large-scale future climate changes, with proper caveats • Projections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade

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