A Crisis of Trust? Popular Support for the European Union During the Great Recession

1. A Crisis of Trust? Popular Support for the European Union During the Great Recession Besir Ceka Max Weber Fellow European University Institute Indiana University November 11, 2013

2. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Trust in the EU during the “great recession”

3. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Figure 1: Change in trust in the EU between 2007 and 2011 absolute change Source: Eurobarometer

4. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion KEY QUESTIONS • What explains this drop in support for the EU? • Are the austerity policies of the EU/IMF to be blamed? • Has the ‘democratic deficit’ of the EU increased?

5. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion ARGUMENT • Austerity measures—only partly responsible for the drop • National economy and support for national government more important. Reason? • Most Europeans know little about EU policies and their effects • Crisis increase in the share of detached citizens

6. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Types of attitudes toward national governments and EU

7. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Diffuse support vs. specific support • Easton (1965, 1975):   “Legitimacy of democracies is affected by the extent to which citizens trust government to do what is right most of time.” • Diffuse support • “reservoir of favorable attitudes or good will that helps members to accept or tolerate outputs to which they are opposed or the effects of which they see as damaging to their interests” • Specific support: performance-based, short term

8. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion DATA AND METHOD • 133 Eurobarometer national surveys from 27 EU countries (2007-2011) • Cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models • Individual and contextual variables • Key dependent variables: • Trust in the EU • EU Membership Good • measures of diffuse support for the EU

9. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Ceteris paribus, being under IMF conditionality has little effect on trust in the EU Credit: AP Photo

10. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Source: Eurobarometer

11. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Figure 3: Effects of independent variables moving from minimum to maximum values on predicted probability of Trusting EU Trust national gov. Economic situation

12. Sophistication Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Figure 4: Moderating effect of sophistication

13. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Figure 5: The % of respondents who distrust both levels of government, 2007 and 2011

14. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion Figure 6: Trust in the EU and Trust in National Government over time

15. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion

16. Introduction Theory Research Design Findings Conclusion CONCLUSION • Evaluations of the national government and economy are crucial for support for the EU • EU is facing a democratic deficit • But, national governments are facing an even bigger legitimacy deficit

17. THANK YOU! Contact: Besir Ceka besir.ceka@eui.eu Title