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Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review

Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review. Steering Subcommittee Meeting January 29, 2010. Outline . Model Validation Benchmarking Process Sample Historical vs. Simulated Dispatch Methodology Review Current Adequacy Metric: LOLP

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Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review

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  1. Power Supply Adequacy AssessmentModel/Methodology Review Steering Subcommittee Meeting January 29, 2010

  2. Outline • Model Validation • Benchmarking Process • Sample Historical vs. Simulated Dispatch • Methodology Review • Current Adequacy Metric: LOLP • The Problem with LOLP • LOLP Subcommittee Suggestions • Next Steps Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  3. Model Validation • HYDSIM vs. actual monthly generation • GENESYS vs. HYDSIM hydro generation output • Hydro peaking calibration • Trapezoidal Model/HOSS/Capacity Survey • Check random variable distributions • Water, wind, forced outage, load/temperature • Simulated thermal dispatch vs. historical dispatch • Simulated hydro dispatch vs. historical dispatch • Simulated dispatch vs. scheduler’s perspective Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  4. Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  5. Sample Comparison of Historical vs. Simulated Hydro Dispatch • Hourly hydro dispatch is highly dependent on hourly load shape • Historical and Genesys hydro load following is consistent • Illustrative only – based on old data and F&W constraints Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  6. Methodology ReviewCurrent Adequacy Metric:LOLP

  7. GENESYS Simulation Illustrative Example Only Cold Hydro Limited Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  8. Curtailment Events(Peaking problems and energy shortages) Each event has a peak and duration. Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  9. What do we Count? • Ideally, we count “significant” events (those that we want to avoid) • Energy threshold (or contingency resource) is 1,200 MW for one day or 28,800 MW-hours from Dec-Mar • Capacity threshold (or contingency resource) is 3,000 MW in any hour from Dec-Mar and from Jun-Sep Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  10. Curtailment Events(non-events not shown) Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  11. Loss of Load Probability Simulated 300 winters (December through March) • Out of 300 winters, 15 had an average curtailment greater than 10 MW-seasons, which means that the • Winter Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) = 15/300 = 5 percent Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  12. Energy LOLP(Sum of Curtailed Energy Dec-Mar) Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  13. The Problem with LOLP

  14. Potential Problem with LOLPSame LOLP – Bigger Magnitude Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  15. Potential Problem with LOLPLower LOLP – Bigger Magnitude Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  16. LOLP Subcommittee Reportand Recommendations

  17. LOLP Subcommittee Report • Clearly define all reserve requirements • Operating reserves • Planning reserves • Wind integration reserves • Determine which reserve curtailments count toward LOLP • Add temperature-correlated wind as a random variable • Decouple temperature and water condition • Define a “contingency” resource for each month of the year instead of defining threshold events • Record curtailment events across all months of the year • Consider using other adequacy metrics • Continue to assess climate change impacts Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  18. LOLP Review Status • Reserves • Work being done by PNUCC committee • Temperature-correlated wind • BPA working on a test data set • Decouple temp and water • Done • Contingency resource • Work needs to be assigned • Annual metric • Not yet started • Other metrics • BPA draft methodology • PSRI review • Climate change • Ongoing Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  19. Next Steps

  20. Possible Modifications to the Current Method • Replace LOLP with an alternative metric • Use LOLP in conjunction with an alternative adequacy metric • Use LOLP in conjunction with the magnitude of the most severe event (or an average of the worst 10% of events) Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  21. Examples of Other Adequacy Metrics • LOLE: loss of load expectation (%) • Number of hours with curtailment divided by the total number of hours simulated • Can be more intuitive, i.e. 99.5% reliable • Does not address magnitude • EUE: expected unserved energy (MW-hr) • Average amount of unserved energy per year • Lacks specific information about severe events Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

  22. Work Plan • PSRI review complete by early 2010 • Benchmark GENESYS by early 2010 • Tech Committee propose new metric and threshold by April of 2010 • Use new metric to assess 3 and 5 year adequacy by June 2010 Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

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