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GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis. FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics. Calanus Diapause. Larval Fish Dynamics. Basin-scale Calanus IBM. Data/model synthesis working group Global-Basin-Regional interactions. Modeling copepod population dynamics in the GB-GOM region

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis

FVCOM-NPZD-

Copepod Dynamics

Calanus

Diapause

Larval Fish

Dynamics

Basin-scale

Calanus IBM

Data/model synthesis working group

Global-Basin-Regional interactions

slide2
Modeling copepod population dynamics

in the GB-GOM region

Cabell Davis, Qiao Hu, Rubao Ji

slide3
Stock ̶ Recruitment

Number of Recruits

Spawning Stock Biomass

Biomass at Age

GLOBEC Georges Bank

Objective:

To understand the processes controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant prey species.

Georges Bank Haddock

slide4
Georges Bank cod/haddock spawning and larval and juvenile drift (Lough and Manning, 2001)

Pratt

Haddock larva

slide5
The copepods:

Centropages

Hopcroft

Pseudocalanus

Calanus

Oithona

Hopcroft

1 mm

Hopcroft

Temp & Food

Dependent:

Fertility

Molting

Growth

Mortality

Davis

slide6
Results (cont): Broadscale Surveys

Cod & Haddock Growth

vs Copepods

Broad-scale

Phytoplankton vs Salinity

Salinity Anomaly

Copepods vs Year

Cod & Haddock Mortality

vs Year

Cod & Haddock Mortality

vs Salinity Anomaly

1990s freshening
Greene and Pershing, 2007 Science1990s Freshening

Freshwater in early 1990s traced to Arctic

  • AO+ winds strengthen Beaufort Gyre
  • AO- winds release freshwater
slide8
Present Work, Synthesis: Models

Basin-scale Model

Regional-scale Model

slide10
Phytoplankton

Nutrients

Detritus

Micro-Zooplankton

NPZD

Copepods

Fish larvae

CBM

CBM

IBM

larval fish modeling lough werner et al
Larval Fish Modeling, Lough, Werner et al.

Lough et al. 2005. Fish. Oceanogr. 14:4, 241-262

slide12
Physics

Nutrients and

Phytoplankton

Copepod

Species

Input data

FVCOM model

Model

Output

3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999

slide13
S1: Uptake (P on N)

S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P

S2: Grazing (Z on P)

S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z

S3: Loss of P

S3=λP

S4: Remineral. of D

S4=εD

S5: Loss of Z

S5=mZ2

Eggs

Nauplii

Copepodids

Adults

Copepod Population

Lower Food Web

S5

µZ

γS5

αS2

S2

βS2

P

(1-α-β)S2

S3

S1

N

D

S4

slide14
S1: Uptake (P on N)

S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P

S2: Grazing (Z on P)

S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z

S3: Loss of P

S3=λP

S4: Remineral. of D

S4=εD

S5: Loss of Z

S5=mZ2

Eggs

Nauplii

Copepodids

Adults

Copepod Population 4-Stage (ENCA)

Lower Food Web

S5

Z

γS5

αS2

S2

βS2

P

(1-α-β)S2

S3

S1

N

D

S4

slide15
100

100

100

Time t Time t+1

0

0

0

4-stage, ENCA

A

E

N

C

(Hu et al., submitted)

0

Time (d)

70

Numerical Diffusion & Mean-Age Model

200 age-stage classes, 13-stages

Number of individuals

200 age-stage classes, 13-stages

E

N

C

A

slide16
Eggs

Pseudocalanus, 1995

Nauplii

Copepodites

Adults

slide17
Pseudocalanus adultsMARMAP data, (McGillicuddy et al. 1998)

104

Pseudocalanus C1-C6

Abundance (#/m3)

0-D Mean-age Model

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

slide18
Some questions

Chronic vs Episodic Mortality

0.0500 vs 0.0475

106

106

Abundance

Abundance

100

100

0

10

0

10

Cohort Age

Cohort Age

  • How do we parameterize mortality?
  • Whole populations:
  • Inverse methods: Ohman, Nisbit & Wood; McGillicuddy adjoint; Hall ‘64
    • Patchy Predators:
  • Predation by planktivorous fish, schooling herring/mackerel
  • Small scale patchiness, ctenophores
  • Gelatinous predation, sparse data
  • The recruitment problem, exponential losses,
slide19
More Questions:
  • One-way versus two-way coupling? “NPZD” structured mesozooplankton IBM or CBM? How detailed? i.e., what details matter? Behaviors? DVM, food-seeking, mate-seeking
  • What is food? Chlorophyll, C, N Food quality? Nutrition: protein, lipid, carbs Encounter rate, turbulence, pred/prey swimming
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