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Future of Journal System: A Critical Analysis

Explore the potential disruptions facing the present journal system, including public funding challenges, economic conditions, and shifts in academic desires. Factors for change and possible scenarios are discussed in this insightful analysis.

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Future of Journal System: A Critical Analysis

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  1. HOW LONG CAN THE PRESENTSTM JOURNAL SYSTEM CONTINUE? David Goodman Research Librarian and Biological Sciences Bibliographer Princeton University Library dgoodman@princeton.edu

  2. Flow of Money and Work Public Funding Agencies University Administrations Researchers Libraries Publishers

  3. Potential Disruptions Public Funding Agencies Fiscal Disaster University Administrations Researchers Funding Body Intervention Libraries Library Rebellion Academic Administrative Change Publishers Researcher choice

  4. The Alternative to Journals: E-Print Archives • Inexpensive • Rapid publication • Searchable • Interoperable • Permanent redundant backup • Compatible with current publishing • Compatible with refereeing • Academically acceptable and proven to work

  5. Factor for Change: User Desire for E-prints possibilities: • Exponential take-off • Linear growth • Linear growth up to a point • Constant low desire for change • No desire for change

  6. Factor for Change: General Economic Conditions possibilities: • Relatively high chance of disaster • Low chance of disaster • Relatively high chance of disaster for next few years

  7. Factor for Change: Desire for Change in Academic World by: • Granting agencies • University requirements • Library support providers possibilities: • Rapidly increasing • Slowly increasing • Constant • Non-existent

  8. Factor for Change: Publisher Options possibilities: • Emphasize packages as at present • Emphasize packages completely • Emphasize single journals • Emphasize individual articles • Reduce prices and titles

  9. Combinations of Factors User desire 13 cases Economic conditions 6 cases Academic desire 12 cases Publisher reaction 5 cases Total cases considered 4680 cases

  10. General Results • Economic disaster forces rapid change • High user desire for change forces rapid change • Otherwise, institutional factors dominate they all converge to a small range of years • Most publisher options have little effect: one year + or - at most

  11. Sample Case:Exponential E-Print Growth • E-Print • exponential growth within each field • linear growth overall • eventual sudden take-off • Publishers • self-protect with packages • price to discourage individual article access • Journals • the best few will remain

  12. Exponential E-Print Growth - Year of Transition

  13. Sample Case:Linear E-Print Growth • E-Print • exponential growth within each field • linear growth overall • no sudden take-off • Publishers • self-protect with packages • price to discourage individual article access • Journals • the best few will remain

  14. Linear E-Print Growth - Year of Transition

  15. Sample Case:Stable Publisher Strategy • E-print • exponential growth within each field • linear growth overall • Publishers • encourage per-article • limit number of journals • limit costs • Journals • all good ones will remain

  16. Stable Publisher Strategy - Year of Transition

  17. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  18. b.1665d.2008 b.1665d. 2008

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