Use of risk information for Disaster Risk Management. Cees van Westen. Hyogo Framework for Action. Priorities for action 2005 - 2015: 1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation
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Use of risk information for Disaster Risk Management Cees van Westen
Hyogo Framework for Action Priorities for action 2005 - 2015: 1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation 2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning 3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels 4. Reduce the underlying risk factors 5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels For more information: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm ISL 2004
Risk Governance Framework • The aim of Risk governance is to involve the various stakeholders within all aspects of risk management. • Risk communication is central. The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework ( Source: IRGC, 2006)
Stakeholders • A stakeholder is any individual or group: • with an interest in the success or failure of an organization/ project/ endeavor in delivering intended results. • affected by the outcome of the project. • might be called on to provide input, feedback, or authorization for the use case. • Beneficiary: a stakeholder with an interest in the positive outcome of the project without actively participating • Risk information consumers (RC): refers to governmental and non-governmental institutions (national, regional, local) as well as to communities and individuals, who may require “information on risk” as an input to carry out their specific tasks. • Risk information providers (RP): governmental and non-governmental institutions (national, regional, local), who are requested to provide the required data inputs to carry through the decision making process concerning risk assessment (the technical aspects); this includes providers of basic data as well as providers of information on risk.
Environmental cues Social context Information sources Information channels Message content Receiver characteristics Predecisional processes Risk identification: “Is there a real threat I need to pay attention to?” Risk assessment: “Do I need to take protective action?” Information needs assessment: “What information do I need?” Protective action search: “What can be done to achieve protection?” Communication action assessment: “Where and how can I obtain this information?” Protective action assessment: “What is the best method of protection?” Communication action implementation: “Do I need the information now?” Protective action implementation: “Does protection action need to be taken now?” Risk communication Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general public. • who (Source) • says what (Message) • via what medium (Channel) • to whom (Receiver) • and directed at what kind of change (Effect).
Risk visualization • Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality, or neighborhood) • Risk curves • Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area • WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of information, and display information such as: • Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data can be shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and risk assessment. • Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk
Risk visualization: example 1. http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php
Risk visualisation: example 2 http:// www.risicokaart.nl
Web-GIS: RiskCity http://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html
Risk atlas: example Andean countries http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought Tsunami Population Roads Electrical energy system Oil infrastructure Harbours Airports Agriculture
Risk reduction R = f (H, V, C) R = Risk H = Hazard V = Vulnerability C = Coping capacity Risk can be reduced by: • Reducing the hazard • Reducing the vulnerability of the elements at risk • Reducing the amount of the elements at risk • Increasing the coping capacity
Risk reduction strategies • Structural measures: refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering measures and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure • Non-Structural measures: refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and methods and operating practices, including participatory mechanisms and the provision of information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.
Risk reduction strategies • Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard • Reduction ( mitigate) i.e. modify the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption. • Transference (outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact of hazards on individuals and the community. • Retention ( accept and budget)
Risk reducing measures Structural measures Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards • engineering measures • construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure • retrofitting
Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas • Foundation • Base plate foundation • Basement • Waterproof concrete • Enhancement openings and sealing • Backflow flaps • First & second floor • Reinforcement of supporting walls • Roof • Reinforcement of roof • Building openings • Decrease amount and area of windows in hazard direction • Avalanche shutters • Temporary preventive measures (to close openings) Fuchs et al., 2011
Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas Fuchs et al., 2011
Dunes Dikes and polders Dams and barriers Risk reducing measures- structural
Example: the Netherlands • To avoide future flood losses a secondary channel & island are planned. • Restrictive development and some removal of existing buildings
(Preparedness measures) • Early Warning • Preparedness and contingency planning • Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities, evacuation plans)
Example: MARSOP3 • Crop Yield Forecasting • Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the EC, Alterra, VITO, Meteoconsult. • This system includes:m • management of a meteorological database, • an agro-meteorological model and database, • low resolution satellite information, • statistical analyses of data • crop yield forecasting • publishing of bulletins containing analysis, forecasts and thematic maps on crop yield expectations using a Web-GIS application
USGS PAGER • After the magnitude and hypocenter of an earthquake are determined, PAGER retrieves any intensities reported by people in the epicenteral region via the online USGS "Did You Feel It?" system. The colored circles show the reported intensity at a city and the circle's size is proportional to population. • PAGER generates a soil/rock site-specific ground-motion amplification map based on topographic slope. This map accounts for the tendency of soft-soil sites to experience stronger ground motion amplification than rock sites. • Information about the fault geometry and size (black rectangle) is added when it becomes available. The ShakeMap system then produces regional ground shaking estimates (yellow contours) using the reported intensities, the site-specific ground-motion amplification map, and seismic wave attenuation equations that account for the variation of seismic shaking intensity with magnitude, distance and depth. • The ShakeMap system then converts the estimated ground motions to a map of seismic intensity. • The population affected at each intensity level is computed and intensities and populations at nearby cities tabulated by combining the map of intensity with the Landscan population database.
CATS: Consequences Assessment Tool Set (http://cats.saic.com/ • US tool (FEMA & U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Threat Reduction Agency ) • Technological Hazard/Effects Models • High Explosive (Blast damage model ) • Toxic Industrial Materials/Hazmat • Biological and Chemical Agent Release • Nuclear and radiological Hazards • NOAA Oil Spill Model • Mass Destruction Hazard/Effects Models • Nuclear, Biological and Chemical • Natural Hazard/Effects Models • Earthquake • Hurricane • Storm Surge • Effects Assessment (Number of Persons, by Category) • Mortality from Radiation Exposure • Mortality and Incapacitation from Biological Agent Exposure • Mortality, Incapacitation, Visual Impairment & Threshold Symptoms from Chemical Agent Exposure • At-Risk Assessment (Number of Items, by Category, Exposed in a Specified Range) • Population, Infrastructure, Residential Structures • Resource Sustainability Analysis • Commodity and Medical Resource Locations • Emergency Response Resource Locations • Roadblocks
Simulation exercise • use the risk information that you have generated in the previous exercise for emergency preparedness & response • make a simulation of an emergency that might take place in RiskCity • You are in the geo-information department of the local authority and you have to provide the local authority with the required information to respond to the emergency. • You will get: • Information from organisations that provide important information • Requests from RCEMR to provide answers to questions which you need to solve using GIS
Simulation exercise • The best is to work in groups of 2 people. • Use 2 computers – one for analysis, one for communication (keep your University e-mail open!) • All answers to information request will be mailed to email@example.com • Grading will be based on the accuracy of the information you provide to RCEMR, and how quickly you send it • Total of 160 points – aim at generating your responses within about 20 minutes! • We start at 12.00 o’clock. • First make sure to download the data for this exercise and check it until you start to receive messages.