Overview of Zimbabwe: Political and Economic Trends Since 2000

1. OVERVIEW OF THE ZIMBABWE CONTEXT

2. BROAD TRENDS  The The political political and and economic economic situation situation in in Zimbabwe Zimbabwe has has remained remained largely largely fragile fragile since since 2000 2000  F Formation ormation of of the the Government Government of of National National Unity Unity (GNU) (GNU) in in February February 2009 2009- - resulting resulting in in relative relative peace peace and and stability stability in in the the political, political, economic economic and and social social situation situation. .  Coming Coming elections elections June June- -Oct Oct 2013 2013- - increasing increasing political political tension tension & & polarisation polarisation- - peaceful, peaceful, free free and and fair fair elections? elections?  Democratic Democratic transition transition and and economic economic recovery recovery process process taking taking long long – – has has ups ups and and downs downs

3. KEY POLITICAL TRENDS New New home home g grown the the President President has rown Constitution Constitution – – after has last last week week assent after 4 4 years assent to to the years of of negotiations negotiations and the New New Constitution Constitution. . and compromises compromises , ,  Has Has expanded expanded Bill rights rights and and decentralisation decentralisation of of power Bill of of Rights Rights – – covering power to to provincial covering political, provincial councils political, social, councils social, economic economic and and cultural cultural  Clearly Clearly includes includes women’s ownership ownership of of property property and women’s rights and resources resources. . rights and and equality equality between between men men and and women women in in  If If implemented, implemented, the democracy democracy and the Draft Draft Constitution Constitution would and good good governance governance in in Zimbabwe would help help lay lay the the foundation foundation for for  Zimbabwe. . International International Community sanctions/ sanctions/ travel travel bans) Community (e (e. .g g. . EU) bans) EU) re re- -engaging engaging with with Zimbabwe Zimbabwe (esp (esp. . lifting lifting of of  Space Space for for Civil Civil Society Society- - remains remains restricted restricted (POSA, (POSA, AIPPA) AIPPA) 

4. POVERTY, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS Some Some stability in the economy stability in the economy mainly currencies currencies Unemployment Unemployment level level in Zimbabwe still remains relatively high particularly in Zimbabwe still remains relatively high particularly among among young women young women and and men men Zimbabwe is Zimbabwe is unlikely to meet the MDG 1 unlikely to meet the MDG 1 target on eradicating poverty and hunger by 2015 and the target on achieving full and productive hunger by 2015 and the target on achieving full and productive employment and decent work for employment and decent work for all all mainly due to the adoption of multiple hard due to the adoption of multiple hard • • target on eradicating poverty and •

5. Feminisation Feminisation of poverty prevalence rate of poverty among female prevalence rate of poverty among female- -headed households. of poverty which shows itself through a higher which shows itself through a higher • headed households. Reduced Reduced capacity of the public sector to deliver quality social capacity of the public sector to deliver quality social services services to citizens in Zimbabwe has resulted in the denial of to citizens in Zimbabwe has resulted in the denial of basic rights of women, youth and children. basic rights of women, youth and children. •

6. MAIN OPPORTUNITIES  Zimbabwe Zimbabwe - -signatory prioritised prioritised 3 MDGs closely linked to the Strategic Objectives of AAI 3 MDGs closely linked to the Strategic Objectives of AAI Zimbabwe (especially MDGs 1 & 3) Zimbabwe (especially MDGs 1 & 3) Goal 1 –Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger; Goal 3 – Promote Gender and Empower Women;  The The new new Constitution Constitution- - if implemented if implemented will increase the space for the active participation of women and other ordinary citizens in participation of women and other ordinary citizens in Zimbabwe e.g. through creation of through creation of independent independent Constitutional Commissions Constitutional Commissions e.g. Human Rights Commission, the Anti Rights Commission, the Anti- -Corruption Commission and the Electoral Corruption Commission and the Electoral Commission) Commission) signatory to the to the Millennium Millennium Development Development Agenda Agenda has has will increase the space for the active Zimbabwe e.g. e.g. Human

7.  Zimbabwe Zimbabwe - - a a signatory treaties treaties (e (e. .g g. . UN on on Human Human and that that seek seek to to promote other other ordinary ordinary citizens demand demand accountability accountability by fulfilment fulfilment of of their  The The continued continued monitoring Zimbabwe Zimbabwe by by the and and civil civil society society an signatory to to various UN Human Human Rights and People’s People’s Rights, promote the the rights citizens. . This This gives by the their rights rights. . monitoring of of the the UN UN Human Human rights an opportunity opportunity and various regional Rights Commission, Commission, the Rights, SADC SADC Protocol rights of of women, women, children, gives civil civil society the state state and and other regional and and international international the African African Charter Protocol on on Gender Gender etc children, youth society an an opportunity opportunity to to other duty duty bearers bearers on Charter etc. .) ) youth and and on the the the human human rights rights Commission Commission provides and space space to to demand rights situation situation in in provides citizens demand their their rights citizens rights

8. MAIN THREATS  Hard Hard- -liners/ political political change patronage patronage system resources resources  The The protracted protracted political inconsistent inconsistent frustrate frustrate some some donors, and and international international agencies liners/ radicals change because system that radicals and/or because they that has and/or political they have has given given them political elites have benefited benefited from them access access to to state elites resisting resisting from the the state political and policy policy donors, existing agencies and economic economic uncertainty environment environment existing and and potential uncertainty and in in Zimbabwe Zimbabwe potential investors and the may may investors the

9.  The The disposable disposable incomes  Natural Natural disasters disasters such very very big big treat treat which agriculture agriculture and global global recession recession- -negatively incomes of of AAI’s AAI’s supporters such as as droughts which have have a a bearing and economic economic recovery negatively supporters in in Europe droughts and and floods bearing on recovery in in Zimbabwe Zimbabwe. . affecting affecting Europe floods are on sustainable sustainable the the are a a

10. MAIN SCENARIOS- WHAT MAY HAPPEN? Scenario Scenario 1 Description Description Successful Democratic Transition Successful Democratic Transition based on SADC facilitated Election Road Map (positive/ best case scenario) Delayed democratic transition Delayed democratic transition due to protracted political negotiations– eventually leading to a democratically elected government (positive scenario) Stalemate Stalemate in the Political Negotiations - leading to the formation of another coalition government another coalition government /GNU arrangement (negative/restrictive scenario) Total Collapse of the existing GNU arrangement Total Collapse of the existing GNU arrangement, leading to the reversal of the democratic transition reversal of the democratic transition to pre-2008 repressive situation (negative/ worst case scenario) 2 3 4