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Econ of AI

Econ of AI. Robin Hanson George Mason University. Outline. World long-term econ trend mostly steady Now doubles in ~15 years So far have seen 2-4 “singularities” when World econ growth rate increased x150-250 In much less than a previous doubling time

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Econ of AI

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  1. Econ of AI Robin Hanson George Mason University

  2. Outline • World long-term econ trend mostly steady • Now doubles in ~15 years • So far have seen 2-4 “singularities” when • World econ growth rate increased x150-250 • In much less than a previous doubling time • Next?: <2100, takes <5 yr, double <month • Space, Fusion, Nanotech, robots? • Best guess: brain emulations

  3. Recent US GDP Growth

  4. World Product, 1950-2006

  5. [DeLong ‘98]

  6. [De Long ’98]

  7. PaleoDemography • DeLong 98 follows Kremer 93 in using Deevey 60 est. • I substitute Hawks et al. 00, who posit exp. pop. growth from ~10K 2MYA. • Based on Multi-regional model (vs. Out of Africa) • 2MYA - simul., signif. new size, pelvis, brain, teeth, … • DNA says inbreeding pop ~10K, before 1.5MYA

  8. Bigger Brains Millions of Years

  9. World Product, 1950-2006

  10. World Product, 1-2000

  11. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD Singularities!

  12. World Product, 2 Million BC+

  13. Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%

  14. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

  15. Growth Mode Statistics

  16. Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Transition date

  17. First Adopter Gains • Why Gains Falling: • More ways to copy innovations • Larger division of labor

  18. Knowledge Was Always Key

  19. What Could Cause A New Singularity?!

  20. Space

  21. Fusion

  22. Nanotech

  23. Robots

  24. Five Steps to Radical Nanotech 1. Atomic Precision – put some atoms where want Growth can go far; implications of specific products 2. General Plants – like PCs beat signal processor Scale economy to make, easier design, efficient enough More differentiation, faster evolution of products 3. Local Production – in homes, highly automated Maybe buy lifestyle packages of designs “print” at home File-sharing, open source, in product designs possible 4. Usually Idle– fixed » marginal costs, like “info” 5. Self-Reproduction– sudden large cost drop?

  25. Industry Shares of US GDP

  26. Factor Shares of Income

  27. My Views On Singularity • Yes: General machine intelligence will come, make huge difference • Not soon: roughly 20 to 200 years away • Not trend: econ growth has been steady • Not local: an integrated world grows together, not basement takes over world • Not hand-coded: probably brain emulation • Not horizon: we can see past next transition • New economy doubles weekly to monthly • Natural wages fall below human subsistence • “Economics of Singularity,” IEEE Spectrum 6/08

  28. Economics of Robots • Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substitute to human labor • Ricardo 1821, most science fiction • Wages fall to machine cost • Automation as Complement to human labor • Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen • So are robots a substitute or complement?

  29. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task

  30. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

  31. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

  32. A Simple Robot Growth Model Assume constant: Seek These

  33. Simple Growth Models Rate Level Rate 0 foom exp slowing Level

  34. A Complex Growth Model

  35. Needed To Emulate Brains • Model each brain cell type • Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan • Computer (very parallel task)

  36. Key: What Ready Last? • Computing • Smooth anticipated transition • Many participate as equals • Scanning (least likely?) • Big coalitions, first wins; diversify! • Most descend from one human? • Modeling • When and who may be big surprise

  37. Cheap For Robots • Immortality- yet maybe can’t afford • Travel– transmit to new body (but security?) • Nature – don’t need ecosystems • Labor – work is less tool/capital intensive • Copies! • Malthusian population explosion, rapid growth • Wages may fall to fast-falling hardware cost • Depends on mental-task landscape shape • Happens if they slave or if free • Only Draconian population/wage laws could stop

  38. Emulations Feel Human • They remember a human life • Retain human tendencies/personalities • love, gossip, argue, sing, play, laugh, … • More alienated worlds (as were farms, factories) • Office work, play in virtual reality • Physical work in android bodies • More unequal abilities, like our fantasy • Can run minds faster, use wildly different bodies • Many won’t believe are conscious, or “is me” • But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

  39. Humans Eclipsed • Wages well below human subsistence • Some humans may find servant jobs • But rich if held non-wage assets • Investments double as fast as economy • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated • Live/work together, use same law in/between • E.g., we don’t kill all retirees, take their stuff • Most emulations of the few best humans • First ems win. No kids? Few fems?

  40. More Implications • Options: copies rent, loan, or slave • Evicted if no pay? Beware black mkt • To recoup training investment, copy clan limits wage of members • Security to prevent bootleg copies! • Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production • Hold copies co-responsible re law • <1cm tall robots seem feasible • Mind/body can speed up as size falls • 0.2in. tall => Subjective year/day in 24hr/4min • One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity • City radius now is hour travel distance => 10sec

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