The Population-Resource Debate

1. The Population-Resource Debate IB Geography I

2. Resources (defined) • Any aspect of the environment that can be used to meet human needs. • They can be classified as either natural or human

3. Resource Tree Diagram Natural Resources Human Resources People Finance Finite Resources/Non-renewable Buildings Infinite Resources or Renewable Resources Infrastructure

4. Natural Resources • Naturally occurring substances such as oil, forests and fish- which are considered to have value by human populations. • They can be classified as either renewable and non-renewable

5. Flow Renewable Resources • Renewable resources that do not need regeneration. They are in constant supply. • These include: solar, wind and tidal power.

6. Resource Depletion • The consumption of non-renewable resources which will eventually lead to the exhaustion of the resource. • This can occur very quickly

7. Opening Activity • If living the lifestyle we are accustomed to right now (food, car, house, stuff…RESOURCES) meant a large group of people would have to die, how would we (as a world) decide who dies? • In the quest to maintain resources, is it okay to wish catastrophe upon millions? Or billions?

8. Theories on the relationship between population and resources

9. Thomas Malthus 1766-1834. Born in the UK Wrote ‘An essay in the First Principle of population’ first published in 1798: He was the first person to introduce the idea of a population ceiling or a carrying capacity of the environment. The world population in 1798 was at 790 million people. We have now passed the 7 billion mark.

10. Malthus was writing in the late 1700’s, so we need to consider the norms back then when analyzing his ideas: • food supplies were uncertain due to bad weather and disease • Mostly agrarian society with limited technology. • Malthus could never have foreseen the technological advances of science like herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, cross breeding techniques, genetic engineering and the mechanization of the agricultural business.

11. Malthus recognized that population if unchecked, grows at a geometric rate: 1 2 4 8 16 32 However, food only increases at an arithmetic rate, as land is finite. 1 2 3 4 5 6

12. Malthusian Catastrophe War, famine, disease.

13. Negative checks/Preventative Checks(decreased birth rate) Negative Checks were used to limit the population growth. It included abstinence/ postponement of marriage which lowered the fertility rate, or possibly anti-natalist policies. Malthus favored moral restraint (including late marriage and sexual abstinence) as a check on population growth. However, it is worth noting that Malthus proposed this only for the working and poor classes!

15. Positive checks (increased death rate) Positive Checks were ways to reduce population size by events such as famine, disease, war - increasing the mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.

16. Optimum Population The highest average living standard marks the optimum population The economic optimum(the level of population which, through the production of goods and services, provides the highest standard of living) Before that population is reached the country is underpopulated, and after it is reached it is overpopulated

17. Population Pressure • When population exceeds carrying capacity for a given area

18. The Population Resource Debate

19. Neo-Malthusians • This is an idea of thought that follows Malthus’ ideas. • Those who fear that population growth will outstrip resources leading to the consequences predicted by Thomas Malthus.

20. The Club of Rome (Neo Malthusian) The club was made up of experts from many disciplines, including mathematicians, scientists, economists, industrialists and geographers. In 1972 the Club of Rome published their findings which essentially predicted what Malthus warned of in 1798. Their work was called the “Limits to Growth Model.”

21. Limits to Growth Model Resources High Population Pollution Food Industrial Output Low 1900 2100

22. The Club of Rome – basic conclusion…. If present growth trends in world population continue and if associated industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime in the next 100 years.(2070) The most probable result will be sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity

23. Paul Ehrlich • In 1968 a prominent biologist by the name of Paul Ehrlich published a book called The Population Bomb. • Ehrlich predicted that the 1970’s would usher in an era of famine and starvation-all based on 1950’s problems in LEDC’s • Ehrlich believed that all resources were finite. • Shortly after Ehrlich’s writing the Club of Rome was formed.

24. Ehrlich (Neo Malthusian) In it he warned of doom and gloom - resource depletion, species extinction and a human population so large that as a species we would face mass poverty, famine, starvation and death. According to Ehrlich, the Earth had reached its carrying capacity long ago and we were living on borrowed time.

25. Carrying Capacity (again) • The maximum number of people that may live in or visit a destination at the same time, without causing destruction of the physical, economic, socio-cultural environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of the living environment.

26. Carrying Capacity Criticism • The main criticism is that population and technology constantly change so the carrying capacity may change. • A country's carrying capacity may change because: • New resources are discovered or resources run out • New technology like solar panels or desalination are introduced • New transport links are built • New sources of water are found or new crops engineered • Natural disasters damage infrastructure and resources

27. Carrying Capacity can be divided into different sections: • Ecological/Environmental: The extent that an environment can tolerate a population • Economic: the amount of people an economy can support in terms of jobs • Perceptual/Social: this relates to the negative social effects related to its population size • Physical: the actual number of people a place can actually hold due to its size

28. Malthus and the Club of Rome – are they right?What evidence is there to support their ideas?

29. Video: Overpopulation, the Making of a Myth • https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vZVOU5bfHrM

30. Esther Boserup 1965 Boserup was optimistic and believed that people have resources of knowledge and technology and that “necessity is the mother of invention”, thus as populations grow towards the carrying capacity they develop new ways to use resources (food) more productively. Can you think of real life examples?

31. Thus……. Demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labour (tools, better techniques).

32. Population and resource relationship after Boserup

33. Was Boserup Right? What about resource degradation and pollution? Can we continue to innovate to overcome these issues?

34. The debate goes on…….

35. Julian Simon Julian Simon, a University of Maryland economist, has written several books on population most famously The Ultimate Resource. Simon thought that all of the doom and gloom of Ehrlich was nothing but nonsense. He claimed that resources are infinite in the sense that human beings will never run out of them for whatever purpose they decide to use them for. Essentially, Simon considered humans to be the “ultimate resource”

36. Neo Malthusian v Anti Malthusian

37. The 2 sides Neo-Malthusian The Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich Modern day Advocates of Thomas Malthus Pessimistic view The idea that the Earth has a carrying capacity Initial views that the world had difficulty feeding itself, but today pollution and climate are the challenges Anti-Malthusian Esther Boserup and Julian Simon Optimistic views Technology and Resource Substitution constantly revises the carrying capacity

38. Arguments for Neo-Malthusians • The stead global decline in the area of farmland per person • The steep rise in the cost of many food products in recent years • The growing scarcity of fish in many parts of the world • The already apparent impact of climate change on agriculture in some world regions • The switchover of large areas of land from food production to the production of biofuels, helping to create a food crisis in order to reduce the energy crisis

39. Arguments for Anti-Malthusians • Resource optimists highlight a number of continuing advances including: • The development of new resources • The replacement of less efficient with more efficient resources • The rapid development of green technology with increasing research and development • Important advances in agricultural research • Stabilizing levels of consumption in some developed countries

40. Key Point Demand for resources and the resulting waste and pollution depends on 3 factors. Population - How many people are there? Consumption – How much does each person consume? Intensity – How efficiently do we use resources?

41. Are we heading for catastrophe? Can we keep going the way we have been - the business as usual approach - and rely on tech and markets and creativity? Or is a radically different world view required?

43. (Anti-Malthusian Boomsters) champion the ability of humans to innovate, develop and adapt, as the solution to the issues associated with population growth, resource consumption and waste. (Neo-Malthusian Doomsters) believe that rapid population growth and increased levels of development have led to a situation where there are insufficient resources and too much waste and pollution. Key Question Where do you stand on this continuum? Vote with your feet!!

44. (Anti-Malthusian Boomsters) champion the ability of humans to innovate, develop and adapt, as the solution to the issues associated with population growth, resource consumption and waste. (Neo-Malthusian Doomsters) believe that rapid population growth and increased levels of development have led to a situation where there are insufficient resources and too much waste and pollution. Key Question What policies or ideas would you propose for population management, consumption, waste and pollution, resource intensity and resource conservation?

45. Past Exam Questions within this topic • Explain the anti-Malthusian view of the relationship between population and resources. • Describe what is meant by a Neo-Malthusian view? • Explain the views of Neo-Malthusians. • Why are today’s Neo-Malthusians concerned with the relationship between population size and resource consumption? • Explain the opposing views of the Neo-Malthusians and Anti-Malthusians.