Trends in population ageing and migratory flows

1. Meeting of the interservice group "Urban Development" DG REGIO, March 13, 2008 Trends in population ageing and migratory flows Constantinos FotakisDG Employment. Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities European Commission Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

2. 1900 100 1905 95 1910 90 1915 85 1920 80 1925 75 1930 70 1935 65 1940 60 1945 55 1950 50 1955 45 1960 40 1965 35 1970 30 1975 25 1980 20 1985 15 1990 10 1995 5 2000 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Age pyramid of the EU population 2000 Females Males Year of Birth Age Population (millions) Source: EUROSTAT Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

3. Age pyramid of the EU population 1930 100 1935 95 1940 90 1945 85 1950 80 1955 75 1960 70 1965 65 1970 60 1975 55 1980 50 1985 45 1990 40 1995 35 2000 30 2005 25 2010 20 2015 15 2020 10 2025 5 2030 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2030 Females Males Year of Birth Age Population (millions) Source: EUROSTAT Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

4. The global trend towards urban concentration Source: UN World Urbanisation Prospects: The 2007 Revision Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

5. 5-year net inter-regional mobility rate of the age group 15-24 (period 1995-2000) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

6. EU25: Net migration and natural population growth(Average 2001-2005) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

7. Key Trends: Increased immigration flows … • During the past 20 years, Europe experienced very important annual increases of inward migration. • Over the last 5 years, EU net migrant inflows reached an annual level of 2 million. • Already since the 1990s, positive net migration became the largest component of population change in most EU Member States, Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

8. Key Migration Trends in the EU: • Increased immigration flows mainly due • tostrong and persisting push and pull factors related to globalisation • and • the North-South divide in terms of demographic trends and welfare standards Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

9. … due to strong “push” and “pull” economic and demographic drivers The demographic dimension 2006: +60< 25% almost everywhere 2050: +60>30% in most developed world Source: UN World population prospects 2004 Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

10. … due to strong “push” and “pull” economic and demographic drivers The economic dimension Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

11. Increased immigration flows due to strong “push” and “pull” economic and demographic drivers • The challenge of shrinking labour force after 2011 • Already, during the next decade once the Lisbon objective of employment rate at 70% is attained, Europe could hardly sustain its level of employment. • In the absence of employment growth, economic growth would only rely in productivity growth while our competitors at global level (USA, China and other emerging economies) will continue to show a more favourable outlook in terms of labour supply. Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

12. Employment perspectives in the EU and the link between the Lisbon Strategy and the EU migration policy EU-27:The demographic constraint for future employment growth 70% of working age population (Lisbon Employment Objective) period 2005-2050 Working age pop. in ,000 EU employment level 70% of the working age population Eurostat Baseline scenario Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

13. Eurostat assumption concerning net migration in the Baseline Demographic scenario In million 2 1 0 Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

14. Employment perspectives in the EU and the link between the Lisbon Strategy and the EU migration policy EU-27:Migration scenarios and demographic constraints for future employment growth 70% of working age population (Lisbon Employment Objective) period 2005-2050 Working age pop. in ,000 70% of the working age population with net migration at 2005 levels (1,9 mio per year) EU employment level 75% of the working age population Eurostat Baseline scenario 70% of the working age population Eurostat Baseline scenario Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

15. Focusing at the “pull” drivers • The challenge of the growing labour needs in highly qualified labour • There are now around three million unfilled jobs in Europe, according to Commission figures.  • Filling jobs in high-skill sectors, such as engineering, is also becoming increasingly troublesome in certain regions. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, vacancies for engineers rose by nearly 30% over the past year to around 23,000. • The same applies to the information technology sector, which contributes more than 5% of the EU's GDP.  Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

16. Growing needs in highly qualified immigrants with tertiary education Average annual growth of employment per educational level Period 2000-2005 Age-group 15-64 Source:Eurostat LFS Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

17. Low – medium skills: Growing needs in specific • Growing needs in domestic and care services. • The 80+ age group- an important consumer of care services- represents the fastest growing age group. It doubled in size in the period 1970—2000 and it will double again before 2030; • The feminisation of the labour force and changes in the family structure and lifestyle have significantly increased the demand for domestic services. • Permanent/Temporary jobs in various sectors of economic activity (namely healthcare, agriculture, construction, tourism etc.) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

18. Growing needs related to eldercare Role of individuals within the household and the link with eldercare :The case of UK Source: Eurostat 2000 Census Round) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

19. 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Changing fertility rate/female participation patterns raising demand for domestic services and childcare Correlation between total fertility rate and female labour force in 21 OECD countriesPeriod 1960-2000 Source: OECD social indicators Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

20. However… migration alone could not fully offset the inertia of the demographic ageing. • Migration policy is seen a policy dimension within a much broader strategic policy approach presented in the context of the Lisbon Strategy including: • Human resources development and active labour market policies to activate and make best use of the existing labour resources; • Modernisation of the Social Protection Systems, taking into account the demographic realities, to increase their sustainability • Restructuring and investment in new technologies and expanding sectors of the global economy. • Sustainable development (environment, energy, economic and social dimension) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

21. Contribution of immigration to economic growth Average annual contribution to the GDP growth; Period 2000-2005; in % European Commission, DG ECFIN Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

22. Key Issues However, the situation in terms of employment performance of the immigrants in Europe is far from satisfactory • Skill level: Europe attracts less high skilled immigrants and more low skilled immigrants compared to USA, Australia and Canada; • Illegal immigration: Illegal migration remains high; • Integration: Almost in all Member-States the integration of immigrants represents an important issue; The integration of the children of immigrants, so-called 'second generation' immigrants, is a key concern in a number of Member States. • Labour market participation: Participation/ employment rates of immigrants and their descendents remain low in many Member States; Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

23. EU25: Employment rates of EU nationals and non-EU nationals, 2005 At present, the employment rates of immigrants are 5-6 percentage points below those of the native labour force Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

24. International migration by category of entry, selected OECD countries, 2005 Standardise data in % of total inflows At present, the majority of the immigrants come for reasons other than employment Source: OECD Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

25. Defining an effective EU policy approach on migration • Better managing migration flows become a strategic policy objective for the Member-States and the European Union as a whole. • There is a particular focus on 4 areas: • opening of legal channels to economic migration and • a more effective integration of the immigrantsin the host societies • Fighting against illegal migration • Developing partnerships with the countries of origin/transition on migration issues Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

26. Legal MigrationThe legislative provisions of the Policy Plan on Economic Migration • Proposal for a General framework directive on single permit and the rights of immigrants (10/2007) • Proposal for a directive on the conditions of entry and residence of highly qualified workers (10/2007) • Proposal for a directive on the conditions of entry and residence of seasonal workers (2008) • Proposal for a directive on the conditions of entry and residence of remunerated trainees (2008) • Proposal for a directive on the procedures regulating the entry into, the temporary stay and residence of Intra-Corporate Transferees (ICT) (2009) Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit

27. The next steps • On 14 Dec 2007, the European Council, made clear that it is now time to bring forward the policy agenda on migration with concrete initiatives encompassing all aspects of migration. A number of key themes have been identified by DG JLS in view of its forth-coming Communication (in June). These are: • Economic immigration and employment; • Integration; • Illegal immigration, undeclared work, return and access control to EU territory; • The Global approach to migration; • Policy coherence and governance; Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities ─ Unit