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Into a warming world. UNEP. WMO. R K Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI State of the World Symposium Washington 15 th January 2009. The Intergovernmental panel on climate change: Science at the service of policy-making. Experts review the first draft of the report

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into a warming world
Into a warming world

UNEP

WMO

R K Pachauri

Chairman, IPCC

Director-General, TERI

State of the World Symposium

Washington

15th January 2009

slide2

The Intergovernmental panel

on climate change:

Science at the service

of policy-making

slide3
Experts review the first draft of the report

Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers

Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

Writing and review process

of the IPCC assessment reports

slide4
+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors

450 lead authors

+130 countries

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

references to the ipcc fourth assessment report in the bali action plan december 2007
References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and thatdelay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”

“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”

“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods”

slide6

Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

slide7

Observed changes

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere

snow cover

slide8

Models using only

natural forcing

Models using both

natural and

anthropogenic forcing

Observations

Global temperature change

1

0.5

0

Temperature anomaly

1900 1950 2000

Year

slide9
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas

Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:

1 million people lost their homes

slide10

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

slide11

Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased

  • in the North Atlantic since about 1970

- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

slide12

More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics

Photo credit: GoodPlanet

slide13

Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century”

carbon dioxide emissions

-2

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

Radiative Forcing (Wm )

10000 5000 0

Time (before 2005)

Carbon dioxide emissions

Global atmospheric concentrations of

greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase

of 70% in 1970-2004

U.S. emissions have risen by 14.7% in 1990-2006*

*Source: EPA, 2008

projected surface temperature changes 2090 2099 relative to 1980 1999
Projected surface temperature changes (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

(oC)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century

examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to 1980 1999
Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999
slide17

Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources

Increased number, intensity and duration of heatwaves will have potential for adverse health impacts

Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution

Impacts on North America

slide18

People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

  • 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia
  • 12 to 81 million in Latin America
  • 75 to 250 million in Africa

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

  • 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
  • 30% by 2080 in Latin America
  • 50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

Expected impacts on poor regions

slide19

Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

3. “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change”

stabilisation scenarios

Global mean temp. increase

(ºC)

Stabilization

level

(ppm CO2-eq)

Year CO2 needs to peak

2.0 – 2.4

445 – 490

2000 – 2015

2.4 – 2.8

490 – 535

2000 – 2020

2.8 – 3.2

535 – 590

2010 – 2030

3.2 – 4.0

590 – 710

2020 – 2060

Stabilisation scenarios
slide21

Costs of mitigation in 2030

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

slide22

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP

GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term

Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth

(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

GDP

Current

Time

2030

Schematic graph

slide23

Co-benefits of mitigation

  • Healthco-benefits from reduced air pollution
  • Increased energysecurity
  • More rural employment
  • Increased agriculturalproduction and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems

Co-benefits provide the opportunity for

no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

slide24

Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

4. “There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could […] reduce emissions below current levels”

slide25

All stabilisation levels assessed

can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio

of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised

in coming decades

This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion

key mitigation instruments policies practices
Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices

Research, development and demonstration

Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Regulations and standards

Taxes and charges

Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

Effective carbon-price signal

slide27

BarackObama’s

  • New Energy for America plan (2008)
  • Create 5 million new green jobs by investing
  • $150 billion over the next 10 years
  • Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025
  • Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015
  • Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050
slide28

The need for US involvement

US action on mitigation would:

  • enable the achievement of global stabilisation targets
  • ensure US competitiveness in a world market dominated by low-carbon products
  • re-establish confidence in US leadership on critical global issues
slide29

Man did not weave the web of life,

he is merely a strand in it.

Whatever he does to the web,

he does to himself.

Chief Seattle, 1854