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The Gold and Silver Story Or Peak Gold The Law of Supply and Demand Gold Supplies Fall Primary gold supply fell in 2008 for the 9th year in a row, from the all-time high of 2,600 tonnes in 2001 to 2,416 tonnes in 2008.

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Primary gold supply fell in 2008 for the 9th year in a row, from the all-time high of 2,600 tonnes in 2001 to 2,416 tonnes in 2008.


China, the largest gold mining country, and Russia, the 6th largest, are hoarding all the gold they mine, and are buyers on the open market.


The Chinese government has officially advised all citizens to buy gold and silver.

This was against the law only a few years ago.


From 1992 to 2007

90 deposits with 2.5m ounces or more were discovered.

But only 24 of them were since 2000.


At the moment, 80m ounces are mined each year but only 15m are discovered, in spite of a fivefold increase in exploration expenses


Germany and Switzerland: gold demand soared by 500% in the 1st quarter of 2009, compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.


Exchange Traded Funds purchases of gold went up 1500% in the 1st quarter of 2009 compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.


Virtually all analysts expect the US dollar to weaken for many years to come, given the massive inflation of the money supply.


Countries like China, Russia, OECD, etc. are trying to get rid of US dollar reserves and discussing a new TWC [including gold] to replace it as the world's trading currency by 2018. This could drive gold up to $5,000 an ounce.


Central banks are buying gold again after almost 20 years of selling it. India purchased 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF in November 2009.


China, Brazil and Russia are expected to buy the other 200 tonnes the IMF is selling if India doesn’t get there first.


Russia has said it wants to raise gold as a percentage of its reserves from 2% to 10%. That's 496 tonnes to 2480 tonnes, more than a whole year of world production.


China wants to raise it's 1.9% of reserves in gold to their goal of 10%. It would have to buy and/or produce 5270 tonnes, more than twice a year's worth of worldwide gold production.


If USA backed its currency with gold, gold would go to around $15,000 an ounce (this is probably an impossibility).


Comex warehouses hold 66 tons of gold: They have promised to provide 1465 tons of gold for future delivery. In other words, they only hold 4.5% of the gold they need to back promised deliveries and must buy the balance in the not too distant future. This is half of worldwide gold production.


World's four largest bullion banks (warehouses) have been shorting the market heavily in September/October 2009 to drive the price down so they can buy the 1400 tons they need.


If the shorting works, gold will go down to $850 or so. Then the bullion banks will buy what they need which will start the next gold rally. This rally will no longer have a lid on it like we've seen with the bank's shorts for the last couple of years.


If the shorting doesn't work they'll have to buy gold to cover all their shorts AS WELL AS buy the 1400 tons they need to replace the shortfall. This would make the gold price go ballistic.


There are five times more gold stocks than silver

  • Total silver production in 2008 was $10.3 billion vs. $73 billion for gold
  • This represents just 1.5% of the $700 billion US bank bailout last year

Buying physical gold and silver:

Investment moves with the price of gold or silver.


Buying mining companies shares; Takes lots of research but adds leverage. More volatile than gold and silver.


Investing in oil:

Oil producing companies, large or small

oil exploration or support companies

Or oil and gas ETF's


"Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man's suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today."

  • Peter A. Burshre

Increasing shortage of Gold & Silver supply

Rapidly increasing demand for Gold & Silver

Falling U.S. dollar good for Gold

Gold, Silver & Oil and real tangible commodities in rising cycle for at least 10 more years

Rising inflation pushes Gold & Silver up

World turning to Gold & Silver for safety in bad

economic times

7. World turning to Gold & Silver for safety in bad geopolitical times

8. Governments printing money drives Gold & Silver up

9. Bullion banks losing battle to keep Gold & Silver down

10. Central banks now buying Gold


Advisors contact

George Bayley

TGN Fund Distributors