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Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA ): Model Description and Applications Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001 Objectives

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canadian economic and emissions model for agriculture ceema model description and applications

Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA):Model Description and Applications

Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm

Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum

Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001

objectives
Objectives
  • Develop a model to assess impacts of mitigation strategies on
    • GHG emissions from the agriculture and agri-food sector
    • economic indicators
  • Estimate 1990 GHG emission levels
  • Forecast 2010 GHG emission levels based on business as usual scenario
  • Estimate impact of selected options on GHG emission levels and economic indicators for the sector
modeling framework
Modeling Framework
  • Based on an existing policy analysis model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model - CRAM)
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions module links levels of agricultural activities to emission coefficients
  • Integrated model (Canadian Economic Emissions Model for Agriculture - CEEMA) incorporates science with policy analysis
  • CEEMA goes beyond primary agriculture and IPCC accounting to include forward and backward linkages (farm inputs, off-farm transportation, food processing)
schematic of the components of ceema
Schematic of the Components of CEEMA

Land Base

Non-land resources

Uncultivated Land

Cultivated Land

Technology of Production

Economic Optimization Model

(Canadian Regional Agricultural Model)

Product and Input Markets

Farm Input Demand

Level of Crop and Livestock Production

Shipments and Trade

Producer and Consumer

Surplus

Science of Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

Estimation of coefficients

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

policy model cram
Policy Model – CRAM
  • Static, non-linear optimization model
  • Maximizes producer + consumer surplus
  • Integrates all sectors of primary agriculture
  • Regional supply/demand
  • Inter-provincial and international trade
  • Government policies/subsidies
  • Transportation and handling
  • Land is the only resource constraint
  • Crop supply response determined by relative profitability of alternative crops
slide6
CRAM
  • Regional Coverage
    • 29 crop production regions
      • 22 in the Prairie region
      • 1 each in other provinces
    • Provincial level for livestock, dairy and poultry
  • Land types
    • Cropland
    • Hayland
    • Improved Pasture
    • Unimproved Land
crop production regions in cram
Crop Production Regions in CRAM

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

cram field crops
CRAM - Field Crops

Fallow/Stubble Split (West)

Wheat

Durum

Canola

Lentils

Tillage Practices

(West)

Intensive

Moderate

No-till

West

Wheat (4 grades)

Durum Wheat

Feed Barley

Malting barley

Canola

Flax

Oats

Lentils

Field peas

Potatoes

Hay

Pasture

Other crops

East

Wheat

Soybeans

Feed barley

Corn grain

Corn silage

Potatoes

Hay

Pasture

Other crops

cram livestock
Cattle basic herd

Cows

Heifers

Calves

Bulls

Cattle feedlot operations

Steers

Heifers

Hogs

Sows

Growers

Dairy

Cows

Heifers

Calves

Fluid milk

Industrial milk

Poultry

Chickens

Layers

Turkeys

CRAM - Livestock
cram economic coverage
CRAM - Economic Coverage

Crops

Area planted

Production costs (variable)

Yields

Prices

Trade

Food demand

Feed demand

Livestock

Animal numbers

Production costs (variable)

Yields

Prices

Trade: - live animals

- meat

Meat consumption

Other

Government payments

Consumer and producer surplus

Transportation costs

Handling costs

greenhouse gas emissions module
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Module
  • 100 year Global Warming Equivalent estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions
  • Emission coefficients based on latest scientific information
    • biophysical models (CENTURY)
    • expert opinion (AAFC Research Branch, IPCC and Environment Canada)
  • Disaggregate approach - emissions of each GHG are estimated for each region, crop and livestock production activities, and source of GHG emissions
  • Estimated emissions = emissions coefficient * production activity level
  • Flexibility in method of summation (e.g. total agriculture and agri-food sector vs. IPCC/Inventory methodology)
ghg emissions from agriculture
GHG Emissions from Agriculture

(million tonnes CO2 equivalents)

agriculture and agri food table options report
Agriculture and Agri-Food Table Options Report
  • Soil nutrient management
    • Better matching of N to crop requirements
  • Soil Management*
    • Increase use of no-till
    • Decrease use of summerfallow
    • Increase use of permanent cover
  • Grazing Management*
    • Decrease cattle stocking rates + complimentary grazing

+ rotational grazing

  • Change Animal Diets
    • Reduce protein intake, additives (hogs. poultry, dairy)
  • Agroforestry
    • Shelterbelts

* Soil Sinks

percent change in co2 eq emissions relative to 2010 baseline century

% change

2010

Target

Nut. Mgt.

Summerfallow

Grazing

Shelterbelts

No-Till

PCP

Animal

Diets

Total

Reductions

Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (CENTURY)
percent change in co2 eq emissions relative to 2010 baseline expert opinion

2010

Target

Nut. Mgt.

Summerfallow

Grazing

Shelterbelts

Animal

Diets

PCP

No-Till

Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (Expert Opinion)

% change

Total

Reductions

canadian submission to the unfcc proposals related to kyoto protocol article 3 3
Canadian Submission to the UNFCC (proposals related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3)
  • Estimate scale of sink potential for 1st commitment period
  • Land based accounting
  • Improvements to Table analysis
  • Low, medium and high adoption rates of BMP related to change in soil carbon
  • Cropland management
    • frequency of no-till
    • frequency of summerfallow
  • Grazing land management
    • conversion of cropland to permanent cover
    • intensity of pasture and grazing land management
  • Shelterbelts
importance of net ghg accounting
Importance of Net GHG Accounting

Example: Estimated Impacts of 1 m ha Permanent Cover and

Cattle Increase on GHG Emissions (2010)

Tg CO2-Eq.

Increased carbon sequestration on grazing land.

Decreased N2O emissions from fertilizer due to less land under annual crops.

Increased CH4 and N2O emissions due to expanded livestock herd.

Net emission reductions of 0.6 million tonnes per year.

If no livestock increase, then could be an additional 1 Mt reduction.

key messages
Impacts of agriculture on GHG emissions go beyond the primary sector

Importance of soil sinks

GHG reduction targets may be achievable through a series of actions based on existing technology

Trade-off between GHG reduction and increased agricultural production (especially livestock)

Measures to promote adoption of mitigation practices

Uncertainty of GHG coefficients

Environmental co-benefits

Key Messages
future activities
Collaboration with broad research community

Analyze additional mitigation scenarios as input to National Business Plan

Targeted Measures and Domestic Emissions Trading Working Groups

Improve economic component of CEEMA (better regional disaggregation and farm level production data)

Incorporate price of carbon for analysis of emissions trading options

Improve GHG coefficients based on scientific research reflective of Canadian conditions

Improve links to agri-food sector and transportation of bulk commodities

Analysis of non-food markets (biofuels, strawboard)

Investigate the dynamics of climate change, potential impacts and possible adaptation

Future Activities