Strategic Analysis of the External Environment. Kevin Hinde. Aims. we will be examining some of the techniques used by organisations to explore the complex and uncertain external environment over the short, medium and long term. Learning Outcomes.
It is important too that
Choose a Panel of Experts
Phrase the questions or issues, or describe the possible futures on which an opinion has to be sought
Consult experts on questions, issues and possible futures to be considered
Panelists, individually and anonymously, express their views on the questions or issues, or on the likelihood of the different futures.
Results are collate and summarised.
Repeat steps 4, 5 and 6 if necessary to reach consensus.
If necessary, ask those who still hold extreme views to feed in, anonymously, the reasons for their views.
Results are fed back to the panelists. No individual views are capable of identification.
Panelists submit revised views
The Delphi Technique
Source: Smith (1994) p.67
Results are written up, conclusions drawn
Re-emphasis on the nature of public service delivery
Re-positioning of public service functions
NEW POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
Scenarios for Public Services: Based on work by past studentsPublic Services in 2015?