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Indian Technology in the Flat World Ramesh Jain jain@ics.uci.edu Discussion Today Flat World Opportunities Technology and India Information Technology Social Issues Opportunity for India

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discussion today
Discussion Today

Flat World

Opportunities

Technology and India

Information Technology

Social Issues

Opportunity for India

slide3

The service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease andinequality of opportunity. The ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye. That may bebeyond us, but as long as there are tears and suffering, so long our work will not be over.

---- Nehru; Tryst with Destiny; August 15, 1947.

general observation 1
General Observation: 1

Economy

Optimism

Image in the world

In my life time India is in its best situation:

I am very happy to see this happen.

As a proud and patriotic person, I want this to continue.

It is important,however, to understand why things are the way they are so we can control them.

general observation 2
General Observation: 2

India is one of the most diverse country in all aspects.

To talk about India, we should talk about India.

Most discussions are about First-India that represents less than 10% of Indians living in India. We have to start considering Second-India comprising around 90% Indians also.

slide6

The Flat World: Level Playing Field

the progress of globalization with an emphasis on the early 21st century.

then and now
Then and Now

When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me: ''Finish your dinner -- people in China are starving.'' I, by contrast, find myself wanting to say to my daughters: ''Finish your homework -- people in China and India are starving for your job.''

Thomas L Friedman in his book.

the unflat world
The Unflat World

Friedman acknowledges there are

some 3 billion people in places like

rural India, rural China, and Africa

who still live in an "unflattened" world.

I think that is a big underestimate – it may be close to 4.5 billion including South America.

turning time almost 600 year ago
Turning Time: Almost 600 Year Ago

Columbus was searching for fame and fortune – was going to India for

Spices

Wealth

Technology

Source of knowledge

Just a few years ago, Gutenberg invented the printing technology that started

Growth of wealth in west

Domination of western technology

Influence of western knowledge

some interesting facts
Some Interesting Facts

India and China

Accounted for 40% of world trade in 1840

Accounted for 3.4% of world trade in 1998

India established the first University in the world in Taxilla

India published less than 2% of world’s scientific research papers (includes Indian journals)

intellectual property
Intellectual Property

2,965

3,914

5,812

13,653

25,735

772,414

778,261

1,267,532

1,869,318

10,647,319

USA

Japan

Taiwan

South Korea

Singapore

Venezuela

Argentina

Mexico

Brazil

India

People needed to produce a patent in USA

widening gap
Widening Gap

Income disparity ratio in the 18th Century between the richest and the poorest countries was a mere 2:1, today it is more than 100:1.

In 1988, median income in the richest 10 percent of countries was 77 times that in the poorest 10 percent; by 1999 the gap had grown to 122 times.

a historical opportunity
A Historical Opportunity

Technology is liberal in rewards and ruthless in punishment

Rich get richer and poor stay poor (Alice was right about technology also)

At each technology inflection point, new leaders emerge.

We are approaching a major technology inflection point.

india has a great opportunity
India has a great opportunity

India is in a good position to capitalize on this opportunity.

Can India emerge as the next technology pioneer?

Will India benefit from its position?

ict and the world at chasm
ICT and the World At Chasm

Rest of the World

Developed countries

technology eco system
Technology Eco-System

Need assessment

Marketing, RFPs

Beneficiaries

Researchers

Problem Understanding

and Articulation

Researchers

Productization

Beneficiaries

Deployment

Funders:

Government,

Companies

Implementers

technology eco system in india
Technology Eco-System in India

Beneficiaries

Researchers

Researchers

Beneficiaries

International

Journals

Tax Payers in India

fund research for USA!!!

Funders:

Tax-Payers in

India

Beneficiaries:

Developed

Countries;

USA

Problem Understanding

and Articulation

Implementers???

ideal scene
Ideal Scene

Funders:

Tax-Payers

RFPs

Beneficiaries:

People+++

Researchers

Problem Understanding

and Articulation

Productization

Implementers

Deployment

well known fact
Well Known Fact:

India is a leader in Information Technology.

how many people use computers in india
How many people use computers in India?

Close to 100%

More than 50%

Between 10 and 25%

Between 2 and 10%

Less than 2%

what is the most important invention in the last 1000 years
Einstein: Theory of relativity.

Turing: Digital Computer.

Curie: X-rays

Gutenberg: Moveable print

Edison: Electric Bulb

What is the most important invention in the last 1000 years?
communicating experiences spatial and temporal
Communicating Experiences: Spatial and Temporal

Inventions

Application Impact

Languages

Communicate symbolic experiences

Written Languages

Record Symbolic experiences (time)

Paper

Portability (space)

Print

Mass distribution (time and space)

Telegraph

Remote narrow communication (space)

Telephone

Remote analog communication (space)

Radio

Analog broadcasting of sound (space)

Television

Combining two senses – media (space)

Recording media

Photos, audio, video (time)

Digital processing

Machine enhancement and processing

Internet

Interactive Multimedia communication

Most influential

Invention in history

Future of

Communication

disruptive stages in computing 1
Disruptive Stages in Computing:1

Data:

Numbers, Text,

Statistics, Sensors (Video)

Data

(Computation)

computing 1 data
Computing 1: Data
  • Device: Mainframe and workstations
  • Main applications:
    • Scientific and engineering
    • Business
  • Users:
    • Sophisticated
    • Expected to be trained
disruptive stages in computing 2
Disruptive Stages in Computing:2

Information:

Search, Specialized sources

Information

(Communication)

Data:

Numbers, Text,

Statistics, Sensors (Video)

Data

(Computation)

computing 2 information and communication
Computing 2: Information and Communication

Device: PC and Internet

Main applications:

Information

Communication

Users:

Common people in ‘developed world’

Easy access using keyboards

disruptive stages in computing 3
Disruptive Stages in Computing:3

Experience:

Direct observation or

participation

Experience

(Insights)

Information:

Search, Specialized sources

Information

(Communication)

Data:

Numbers, Text,

Statistics, Sensors (Video)

Data

(Computation)

What Next?

computing 3 experience
Computing 3: Experience

Device: Mobile phones

Main applications:

Experience management

Experiential communication

Users:

Humans

No language issues

how many people use mobile phones in india
How many people use Mobile phones in India?

Close to 1 Billion

More than 500 Million, but less than 1B

Between 250 – 500 Million

Between 150 – 250 Million

Between 100- 150 Million

Less than 100 Million

drivers in computing 3 0
Drivers in Computing 3.0

Experiential

Social Computing/networking

Events

name 3 most popular internet companies that emerged in the last 3 years
Name 3 most popular Internet companies that emerged in the last 3 years.

Flickr

YouTube

Facebook/Myspace

interesting
Interesting!!!

Blogs

Tags

Groups/SNtwks

Flickr

YouTube

Facebook/Myspace

What message does this give us?

message people want
Message: People want

New media: Text based media is not enough.

Self Expression: People want to express themselves using easy to use tools.

Socialize: Family and friends remain a strong influence in all facets of life.

how relevent is this in developing countries in india
How Relevent is this in developing countries – in India?

New media: Text based media is not enough. This is essential due to language and literacy issues.

Self Expression: People want to express themselves using easy to use tools. This is as true for a villager in Ramakona as it is for a college student at Harvard.

Socialize: Family and friends remain a strong influence in all facets of life. True for everybody.

why do so many technology leaders come from the bay area
Why do so many technology leaders come from the Bay Area?

Something in water?

Something in Air?

Genetically people are brighter there.

slide40
Can Bangalore be the Next Silicon Valley?Can India be the next technology leader in the emerging new Flat World?
india is undisputed leader in software outsourcing
India is Undisputed Leader in Software Outsourcing.

Flat World started in discussions with Nandan Nilekani.

More than 50% CMM Level 5 Companies are in India.

Every country is trying to learn from India.

time is right
Time is Right

We are at a major ‘Technology Inflection’ point.

India is the best place to do research in the new wave.

Products developed for India are relevant to 80% of the world – all developing countries.

slide43
But,

Education

Technology culture

Infrastructure

Social Issues

Political Issues

there are serious challenges.

education information technology
Education: Information Technology

We have IITs. And we have good reasons to celebrate what IITians have contributed.

How about general IT education? Including at IITs. Is it any good?

Number of PhDs in Information Technology in one year? Let’s compare to some countries.

  • 3000
  • 1200
  • 40
  • China
  • USA
  • India (Israel, Singapore)
education general
Education: General

Elementary education

Students going to Universities

Female education

No Indian University is in top 50 in most rankings.

Most of the worlds illiterates in 2020 maybe in India. (Nani Palakhiwala)

challenge
Challenge:

Basic education for masses – not only 10% of society.

High quality University education , particularly graduate level.

software companies
Software Companies

In China most of the multinationals in the Web Space have not been successful

  • Google
  • Yahoo
  • Amazon
  • Expedia
  • MSN Messenger
  • Youtube
  • Beidu
  • Alibaba
  • Dangdang
  • eLong
  • QQ (by Tencents)
  • Youku (yoqoo)
  • What about in India?
    • All Multinationals dominate.
software use
Software Use

China uses more than 75% of the software they produce. India uses less than 25%.

India has been very slow in adopting IT culture (except for MNC in India).

software outsourcing
Software Outsourcing

Today India is undisputed leader.

Bangalore, Manila, New Delhi, Mumbai, Dalian, Shanghai, Beijing, Sidney, Brisban, Auckland.

According to IDC, by 2011 Chinese cities will be ahead of India.

Infrastructure

Cost

Education

english factor
English Factor

English has been a benefit.

Outsourcing boom is because of English.

In fact it may become the biggest handicap.

Why is there no Hindi (or any Indian language) version of Windows?

challenge52
Challenge:

How to convert followers and servers into leaders?

How to bring product oriented culture where CMM Level 5 dominates?

How to develop Computing 3.0 and become the leader in the technology products.

political issues
Political Issues

India is making progress despite politicians.

Less said – better it is.

And, don’t get me going on this one.

I am not an expert, but I have passionate opinions.

society technology and religion
Society: Technology and Religion

Balance between Science/Technology and religion is important.

The age of Fatwa and Dharmadesh

Knowledge and Ignorance

Kamsutra vs sex education in schools

Bodhgaya’s country vs maximum illiterates in the world

There is a strong correlation between fundamentalism and progress in technology.

challenge55
Challenge:

How to maintain Indian strength in spiritualism (not fundamentalism) while adopting scientific perspective in a democratic country of majority of uneducated people.

infrastructure
Infrastructure

Transportation

Water

Electricity

Sanitation

Essential to have good infrastructure to be competitive even in outsourcing.

challenge57
Challenge:

First bring infrastructure to other emerging country level and then to world level.

opportunity
Opportunity

Flat world brought exceptional opportunities and resources in the last decade.

Next wave of computing may be a great opportunity for India.

India has a running start.

challenges
Challenges

Exceptional improvements required in education and other infrastructure.

Needs to think like a leader in product development and become a consumer of technology.

‘Chalega’ has started dominating in technology space already – the only way to compete in the Flat World is to listen to Alice in wonderland: You have to run as fast as possible to stay where you are.

slide60

The future beckons to us. Whither do we go and what shall be our endeavour? To bring freedom and opportunity to the common man, to the peasants and workers of India; to fight and end poverty and ignorance and disease; to build up a prosperous, democratic and progressive nation, and to create social,

economic and political institutions which will ensure justice and fullness of life to every man and woman.

---- Nehru; Tryst with Destiny; August 15, 1947.

thanks

Thanks.

For more information, comments, criticisms

contact:

jain@ics.uci.edu