Indian Technology in the Flat World Ramesh Jainjain@ics.uci.edu
Discussion Today Flat World Opportunities Technology and India Information Technology Social Issues Opportunity for India
The service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease andinequality of opportunity. The ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye. That may bebeyond us, but as long as there are tears and suffering, so long our work will not be over. ---- Nehru; Tryst with Destiny; August 15, 1947.
General Observation: 1 Economy Optimism Image in the world In my life time India is in its best situation: I am very happy to see this happen. As a proud and patriotic person, I want this to continue. It is important,however, to understand why things are the way they are so we can control them.
General Observation: 2 India is one of the most diverse country in all aspects. To talk about India, we should talk about India. Most discussions are about First-India that represents less than 10% of Indians living in India. We have to start considering Second-India comprising around 90% Indians also.
The Flat World: Level Playing Field the progress of globalization with an emphasis on the early 21st century.
Then and Now When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me: ''Finish your dinner -- people in China are starving.'' I, by contrast, find myself wanting to say to my daughters: ''Finish your homework -- people in China and India are starving for your job.'' Thomas L Friedman in his book.
The Unflat World Friedman acknowledges there are some 3 billion people in places like rural India, rural China, and Africa who still live in an "unflattened" world. I think that is a big underestimate – it may be close to 4.5 billion including South America.
Turning Time: Almost 600 Year Ago Columbus was searching for fame and fortune – was going to India for Spices Wealth Technology Source of knowledge Just a few years ago, Gutenberg invented the printing technology that started Growth of wealth in west Domination of western technology Influence of western knowledge
Some Interesting Facts India and China Accounted for 40% of world trade in 1840 Accounted for 3.4% of world trade in 1998 India established the first University in the world in Taxilla India published less than 2% of world’s scientific research papers (includes Indian journals)
Intellectual Property 2,965 3,914 5,812 13,653 25,735 772,414 778,261 1,267,532 1,869,318 10,647,319 USA Japan Taiwan South Korea Singapore Venezuela Argentina Mexico Brazil India People needed to produce a patent in USA
Widening Gap Income disparity ratio in the 18th Century between the richest and the poorest countries was a mere 2:1, today it is more than 100:1. In 1988, median income in the richest 10 percent of countries was 77 times that in the poorest 10 percent; by 1999 the gap had grown to 122 times.
A Historical Opportunity Technology is liberal in rewards and ruthless in punishment Rich get richer and poor stay poor (Alice was right about technology also) At each technology inflection point, new leaders emerge. We are approaching a major technology inflection point.
India has a great opportunity India is in a good position to capitalize on this opportunity. Can India emerge as the next technology pioneer? Will India benefit from its position?
Technology Product Life Cycle From: Don Norman
ICT and the World At Chasm Rest of the World Developed countries
Technology Eco-System Need assessment Marketing, RFPs Beneficiaries Researchers Problem Understanding and Articulation Researchers Productization Beneficiaries Deployment Funders: Government, Companies Implementers
Technology Eco-System in India Beneficiaries Researchers Researchers Beneficiaries International Journals Tax Payers in India fund research for USA!!! Funders: Tax-Payers in India Beneficiaries: Developed Countries; USA Problem Understanding and Articulation Implementers???
Ideal Scene Funders: Tax-Payers RFPs Beneficiaries: People+++ Researchers Problem Understanding and Articulation Productization Implementers Deployment
Well Known Fact: India is a leader in Information Technology.
How many people use computers in India? Close to 100% More than 50% Between 10 and 25% Between 2 and 10% Less than 2%
Einstein: Theory of relativity. Turing: Digital Computer. Curie: X-rays Gutenberg: Moveable print Edison: Electric Bulb What is the most important invention in the last 1000 years?
Communicating Experiences: Spatial and Temporal Inventions Application Impact Languages Communicate symbolic experiences Written Languages Record Symbolic experiences (time) Paper Portability (space) Print Mass distribution (time and space) Telegraph Remote narrow communication (space) Telephone Remote analog communication (space) Radio Analog broadcasting of sound (space) Television Combining two senses – media (space) Recording media Photos, audio, video (time) Digital processing Machine enhancement and processing Internet Interactive Multimedia communication Most influential Invention in history Future of Communication
Disruptive Stages in Computing:1 Data: Numbers, Text, Statistics, Sensors (Video) Data (Computation)
Computing 1: Data • Device: Mainframe and workstations • Main applications: • Scientific and engineering • Business • Users: • Sophisticated • Expected to be trained
Disruptive Stages in Computing:2 Information: Search, Specialized sources Information (Communication) Data: Numbers, Text, Statistics, Sensors (Video) Data (Computation)
Computing 2: Information and Communication Device: PC and Internet Main applications: Information Communication Users: Common people in ‘developed world’ Easy access using keyboards
Disruptive Stages in Computing:3 Experience: Direct observation or participation Experience (Insights) Information: Search, Specialized sources Information (Communication) Data: Numbers, Text, Statistics, Sensors (Video) Data (Computation) What Next?
Computing 3: Experience Device: Mobile phones Main applications: Experience management Experiential communication Users: Humans No language issues
How many people use Mobile phones in India? Close to 1 Billion More than 500 Million, but less than 1B Between 250 – 500 Million Between 150 – 250 Million Between 100- 150 Million Less than 100 Million
Drivers in Computing 3.0 Experiential Social Computing/networking Events
Name 3 most popular Internet companies that emerged in the last 3 years. Flickr YouTube Facebook/Myspace
Name 3 most popular Internet concepts in the last 3 years. Blogs Tags Groups/Social Networks
Interesting!!! Blogs Tags Groups/SNtwks Flickr YouTube Facebook/Myspace What message does this give us?
Message: People want New media: Text based media is not enough. Self Expression: People want to express themselves using easy to use tools. Socialize: Family and friends remain a strong influence in all facets of life.
How Relevent is this in developing countries – in India? New media: Text based media is not enough. This is essential due to language and literacy issues. Self Expression: People want to express themselves using easy to use tools. This is as true for a villager in Ramakona as it is for a college student at Harvard. Socialize: Family and friends remain a strong influence in all facets of life. True for everybody.
Why do so many technology leaders come from the Bay Area? Something in water? Something in Air? Genetically people are brighter there.
Can Bangalore be the Next Silicon Valley?Can India be the next technology leader in the emerging new Flat World?
India is Undisputed Leader in Software Outsourcing. Flat World started in discussions with Nandan Nilekani. More than 50% CMM Level 5 Companies are in India. Every country is trying to learn from India.
Time is Right We are at a major ‘Technology Inflection’ point. India is the best place to do research in the new wave. Products developed for India are relevant to 80% of the world – all developing countries.
But, Education Technology culture Infrastructure Social Issues Political Issues there are serious challenges.
Education: Information Technology We have IITs. And we have good reasons to celebrate what IITians have contributed. How about general IT education? Including at IITs. Is it any good? Number of PhDs in Information Technology in one year? Let’s compare to some countries. • 3000 • 1200 • 40 • China • USA • India (Israel, Singapore)
Education: General Elementary education Students going to Universities Female education No Indian University is in top 50 in most rankings. Most of the worlds illiterates in 2020 maybe in India. (Nani Palakhiwala)
Challenge: Basic education for masses – not only 10% of society. High quality University education , particularly graduate level.
Software Companies In China most of the multinationals in the Web Space have not been successful • Google • Yahoo • Amazon • Expedia • MSN Messenger • Youtube • Beidu • Alibaba • Dangdang • eLong • QQ (by Tencents) • Youku (yoqoo) • What about in India? • All Multinationals dominate.
Software Use China uses more than 75% of the software they produce. India uses less than 25%. India has been very slow in adopting IT culture (except for MNC in India).
Software Outsourcing Today India is undisputed leader. Bangalore, Manila, New Delhi, Mumbai, Dalian, Shanghai, Beijing, Sidney, Brisban, Auckland. According to IDC, by 2011 Chinese cities will be ahead of India. Infrastructure Cost Education
English Factor English has been a benefit. Outsourcing boom is because of English. In fact it may become the biggest handicap. Why is there no Hindi (or any Indian language) version of Windows?