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Early Thoughts on the Reference Design Report. Peter H. Garbincius for the GDE Design / Cost Board. Barry showed the overall organization for RDR yesterday:. GDE Design/Cost Board:. Peter H. Garbincius*, Chairman, Wilhelm Bialowons*, Atsushi Enomoto, Jean-Pierre Delahaye,Robert Kephart,

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Early thoughts on the reference design report

Early Thoughts on theReference Design Report

Peter H. Garbincius

for the

GDE Design / Cost Board

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Gde design cost board
GDE Design/Cost Board:

Peter H. Garbincius*, Chairman,

Wilhelm Bialowons*, Atsushi Enomoto,

Jean-Pierre Delahaye,Robert Kephart,

Olivier Napoly, Ewan Paterson,

Nan Phinney, Tetsuo Shidara*, and

Nobuhiro Terunuma

(* = Cost Engineering Group)

With backup by the Accelerator Physics Group:

Tor Raubenheimer, Nick Walker, Kaoru Yokoya

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Design cost board mission statement again from barry yesterday
Design / Cost BoardMission Statementagain, from Barry, yesterday

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Preparation of the reference design report
Preparation of the Reference Design Report

  • Design Cost Board will provide guidance and structure, define depth requirements for the elements of cost effort, develop, advise, lead, review, and manage the preparation of RDR.

  • Area Systems Groups are led by full-time teams, coordinate Technical & Global System Groups, and are responsible for providing detailed designs, text, and cost estimates

  • Work together with Change Control Board, R&D Board, and Cost Engineering Team

  • Final Publication Deadline: end of 2006

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Interaction w area system groups
Interaction w Area System Groups

  • DCB soon has to tell them what we need.

  • Gotta make sure they have the

    manpower resources to do the job

    on the needed schedule.

  • Determine scope, schedules, goals,

    and deliverables.

    DCB definitely reviews and approves!

    will require monthly reports

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

The rdr design matrix
the RDR Design Matrix

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

One line attributes for cost est
one-line attributes for cost est.

  • inclusive – can’t neglect anything important

  • “parametric” – quantities, escalation, overheads, labor rates, cost vs size or performance (e.g. gradient)

  • Barry - how does cost vary with a performance parameter? e.g. # bunches?

  • bottom-up – some elements, but many

    will be top-down, scaled, parametric, etc.

  • flexible – easily follow any scope changes !!!

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Global issues will be important thanks jonathan
Global issues will be important thanks Jonathan!

  • Can’t leave anything out: follow all items from conception, design, procurement, testing, inventory, material handling, installation, commissioning…

  • Be careful at boundaries, interfaces, and hand-offs between groups & systems

  • Performance requirements & specs will determine engineering effort at cost

  • Make sure you specify what you need, but don’t over-specify (driving up costs)

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Quality of evolving cost estimate
Quality of evolving cost estimate

  • Use whatever we have at any given time:

    e.g. today we have TESLA TDR & USLCTOS

  • Update as new and better info is available

    a “living” document

  • Need to carry along status & date of estimate

    & “basis of estimate” tag for each element

  • Goal is to get adequate and sufficient cost

    estimate for RDR deadline

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

We do have some prior examples
We do have some prior examples

  • NLC Copper Book, TESLA TDR, GLC,

    and the USLC Options Study

  • We should review the approach

    and adopt what is good

    while improving what is not

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Early thoughts on the reference design report
Tor sent suggested WBS - PHG updated (112 active cost packages at this time)will expand to > 1000 internal elements

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Ok what did we leave out what do we do next
OK, what did we leave out, what do we do next?

  • Exploit our collective project management experience, both within and external to ILC

  • Your input and collective wisdom

    are vital elements in this process!

    Please help us prepare the RDR!

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

End presentation backup slides to follow
End Presentation Backup Slides to Follow

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

What information do we need
What information do we need?

  • Scope (text/pix), Cost Estimates, Schedule

  • Schedule – input to cost estimates, e.g.

    needing 600 klystrons over 5 years

    may be substantially more expensive

    than same 600 klystrons over 8 years

  • Two funding models: (differ betw regions)

    technically limited (no time constraint)

    or flat funding – same # $ per year

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Cost estimate elements
Cost Estimate Elements

  • How many parallel estimates do we need (from Asia, Americas, Europe)?

    3 or 4 or 5 site studies!

  • How do you handle multiple inputs into

    determining “value”?

  • World-market cost for common items,

    must do studies for unique elements

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Industrial cost estimate studies
Industrial Cost Estimate Studies

  • TESLA – content and cost estimates confidential

    Dieter Trines promised copy of tender for studies

    I requested reports without costs – did not say yes/no

  • XFEL – will have CryoModule Assembly and

    RF Coupler studies back by mid-2006

    content will be public, cost est confidential

    B. Petersen & T. Garvey will send copies of tender

  • U.S. Studies – cavities, CM, coupler, CFS ?

    not before latter half of 2006 at earliest

  • Asian Studies – content and status?

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Will industrial studies be useful
Will Industrial Studies be useful?

  • Will they be in time to be useful for RDR?

  • Will we get any lower level cost estimates?

    or just total cost of XFEL Main Linac?

  • How can we insure confidentiality of

    sensitive cost information?

    We surely don’t want to bias XFEL bidding!

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Nitty gritty

  • What is in/out of cost estimate?

  • How do we present cost/value?

    as the lowest value (world-market)

    average value, range of estimate, probabilistic? 90% CL?

  • What about different SITE-dependent ests?

  • Gotta DOCUMENT what we are presenting & provide a translation guide for each region

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Wws group led by hitoshi yamamoto and jim brau
WWS Group led by Hitoshi Yamamoto and Jim Brau

  • Preparing major physics sections:

    • The Physics case for the ILC

    • Detectors – incorporating 3 ideas

    • Simulations of machine & detector interaction:

      • Detector performance, resolution, backgrounds

        initially using model of beam: phase space,

        momentum spread, disruption, etc.

        will soon need fully simulated beam

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Value rather than cost approach
Value (rather than cost) approach

  • Value is worth to the ILC project,

    rather than worth to contributing country

  • Approach developed by ITER (R. Aymar)

    vetted through Dan Lehman (US DOE)

  • Countries bid to provide some piece of

    project and not funds. Internally apply their own overheads, contingency, and labor rates

    to determine their cost, without changing value

  • Yes, ITER has common fund (some % of value assessment–acts as management contingency)

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Iter used 100 cost packages
ITER used 100 cost packages

  • ITER assigned “value units” to only

    ~ 100 cost packages

    a pretty high level WBS roll-up

    many more lower level items

    had to have been cost estimated

    and rolled-up to form these packages

  • upon which member countries could bid

  • Does that number make sense for ILC-RDR?

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Although some people will tell you that they know exactly how we should define value
Although some people will tell you that they know exactly how we should define “value”,

  • I don’t think we can possibly know at this beginning stage.

  • We don’t want to leave anything out, or close avenues, so we should gather all reasonable information from multiple studies, and combine/average/select only when we better understand the trade-offs of how to present cost or value.

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

Program management tools
Program Management Tools how we should define “value”,

  • for Project Definition: EXCEL, SLAC WBS, MS Project

  • we will eventually need to migrate to a more powerful,

    integrated cost & schedule management system

  • Primavera is the choice at SLAC, ANL, JLab,

    but not at Fermilab, DESY, KEK, CERN, DESY

    maybe not so useful for project definition

    costs: licenses, business computing support

    “experts” (consultants), users (us)

    learning curves for us

    using sophisticated tool will show that we are serious players

ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy