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EC0 463 International Monetary Relations

EC0 463 International Monetary Relations. Professor Malamud BEH 502 895 – 3294 Email: bernard.malamud@unlv.edu Website: http://faculty.unlv.edu/bmalamud Office Hours:TTh 1 – 2 pm ; 4 – 5 pm ; and by appointment. International Monetary Relations. It’s about:

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EC0 463 International Monetary Relations

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  1. EC0 463International Monetary Relations Professor Malamud BEH 502 895 – 3294 Email: bernard.malamud@unlv.edu Website: http://faculty.unlv.edu/bmalamud Office Hours:TTh 1 – 2 pm; 4 – 5 pm; and by appointment

  2. International Monetary Relations It’s about: • Exchange Rates & Balance of Payments • How they’re determined in an open economy • How they affect an open economy What you’ll gain: • Command of challenging MODELS • Hone your skills of economic analysis • A feel for the international economy • Appreciation of floating and fixed exchange rates • Strengths and drawbacks • How policy works … and doesn’t work … under each regime • Cocktail party and job interview talking points

  3. The Course: Divided in Three Parts • The Global Economy • Follow the money … B of P accounts • Exchanging the money • Modeling the Open Economy • Interest rates and exchange rates • Money, interest and exchange rates (short-run, P fixed) • PPP (long-run, P adjusts) • Output, interest and exchange rates (short-run) • Fixed exchange rates • International Monetary History and Institutions • Fixed vs flex • OCA (Optimal Currency Areas) – what’s wrong with the euro?

  4. A Tour of the World: January 2012 Global Economy Under Stress Locomotive of the 1990s and early 2000s…now slowed Lender of last resort in the ‘90s … Mexico ’94 - 95 … East Asia ’97 - 98 World in Recession – Financial Crises Ballooning US Budget Deficit/Trade Deficit Housing Bubble … Credit Crunch Flight to /from U.S. investments? … Depreciating Dollar? Rebalancing Been there – done that … Kindleberger, World In Depression:1929-39 Eichengreen, Golden Fetters Bernanke, Essays on the Great Depression Can others propel growth? Japan/EU/BRIC Post-bubble Japan Europe: Stability and Growth(?) Pact—The PIIGS China: Grand Ambitions … Undervalued currency India: Great Potential/Brazil: The country of the future?/Russia(?):

  5. From Gillian Tett, Fool’s Gold The sun slipped slowly down the cerulean Spanish sky….[S]everal hundred bankers stood on the elegant terrace of a futuristic, gleaming white hotel, staging a so-called champagne salute in celebration of the fact that investment banks had just enjoyed their most lucrative year in history. The date was June 11, 2007 and the occasion was the annual meeting of the European Securitisation…The meeting carried a lofty title: “Global Asset Backed Securitization: Toward a New Dawn.” An exuberant crowd including smooth talking, white toothed salesmen from large American banks, eagerly selling repackaged mortgage debt; self-deprecating British traders; and earnest, chain-smoking representatives from German insurance companies and banks. Their prey included asset managers from Italy, Spain, Germany, and Greece…A silent gaggle of Chinese and Singaporeans circulated. It was rumored that they were furtively buying CDOs to find a home for foreign exchange reserves. A few regulators could also be spotted, conspicuous in looking generally dowdier than the bankers. Some of the biggest delegations, though, came from the three credit rating agencies that were drawing fat profits from the CDO boom…Lively debate ensued about the American mortgage backed bond market, the CDO sector, the SIVs, the state of the Spanish mortgage market and the outlook for Russian ABS. There was even a high-profile debate on Islamic finance [which] some hoped would be a hot new growth area for securitization…

  6. The $’s Exchange Rate Volcker Disinflation Dot-com bubble Dot.com Bubble …Rebalancing… …Rebalancing……...

  7. Volcker Disinflation Volcker Disinflation Great Recession Great Recession Great Recession Oil Shock Oil Shock Oil Shock Natural Rate

  8. Unemployment Rates & Year-to Year GDP Growth, Summer 2009 Summer ’092010 USA 9.4% 9.4% Japan 5.4 5.1 China 9.0 4.1 Britain 7.8 7.9 Canada 8.6 7.6 Eurozone9.4 9.7 France 9.4 10.1 Germany 8.3 6.7 Italy 7.3 8.2 Spain 18.1 20.1 Ireland 12.2 13.9 Russia 8.3 9.2 India 6.8 4.1 Korea 3.8 3.7 Argentina 8.4 7.0 Brazil 8.1 5.7 Iceland 8.1 7.6

  9. Sample Exchange Rates Foreign Currency/US$ Jan 11 Jan 12% $ Appreciation Japan 83.276.9 - 7.6% China 6.606.31 - 4.4% Britain 0.630.65 + 3.2% Canada 0.991.02+ 3.0% Eurozone0.760.79 +4.0% India45.551.7+13.6% Mexico12.08 13.6+12.4%

  10. Balance on Current Account as Fraction of GDP

  11. Dates April 1925 UK returns to gold October 1929The Great Crash Sept 1931 UK leaves gold Aug 15, 1971 Nixon Econ Program Gold window closed/Import surtax/Wage/Price Freeze October 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Oct 6, 1979VolckerMonetarist experiment 1982+Third World Debt Crisis February 1985 $ - £ “parity” Oct 19, 1987Black Monday Nov 9, 1989 Berlin Wall Down September 1992ERM Collapse December 1994Tequila Crisis Aug 1997 – 1998East Asia Crisis Sept 1998Long Term Capital Management Jan 1, 1999 € Sept 11, 2001 January 2002Argentine Peso Collapse August 2007 US Mortgage Bubble Collapse 2008 US/UK/Ireland/Spain Housing Bubble Collapse Credit Crunch:Bear/Fannie/Freddie/Lehman/Merrill AIG/TARP/Currency Swaps … and Places Bretton Woods, ’44: IMF, IBRD Vietnam, 1964… Plaza 9/85 – Louvre 2/87 Japan bubble Maastricht, 1991 Washington Consensus BaselI,II,… 1988, 2004 PIIGS…2010 –

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